RBC Heritage Recap: Pan Grabs First Tour Win

There's something really crazy happening on Hilton Head Island. No lead is safe there. We know sports people often like to say, "No lead is a safe." It's usually hyperbole, but on Hilton Head Island, it's really true. 

For the seventh straight year, someone came from not only behind to win the RBC Heritage, but from at least two shots off the lead. Unheralded C.T. Pan overtook nine golfers either ahead of him or tied entering Sunday to win for the first time on the PGA Tour. At the top of that list was world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, who began the day with the lead but stunningly ballooned to a 6-over 77 to plummet into a tie for 28th. 

Pan had come close to victory before, finishing runner-up once each the past two seasons, but there was little to suggest he was about to take the next step, the biggest step in golf: the first win. Pan did not have a top-10 all season, had not finished so much as in the top-40 in his first nine starts of 2019 and was ranked outside the top-100 in every strokes-gained category. That's why Pan was at home a week ago watching the Masters when his wife, Yingchun Lin, bluntly requested/demanded: "Hey, I'm not patient, so you better get me [to Augusta] as soon as possible." (Like any good husband, Pan listened to his wife.) 

Those numbers tell us a lot about Pan, but also about Harbour Town Golf Links, where weird stuff has been happening for much of this decade. Ever since Carl Pettersson turned the trick in 2012, no third-round leader at the RBC Heritage has also been the fourth-round leader. In fact, before Pan on Sunday, the six previous winners had come from at least three shots off the pace after 54 holes. 

One of the reasons is that Harbour Town is sneaky hard. It's under 7,100 yards, an anachronism by today's PGA Tour standards. Matt Kuchar, who finished second by a stroke, has likened it to playing chess, how you really have to think your way around the course instead of bomb your way around it. The come-from-behind trend goes back seven years, but there's another Harbour Town trend far older. It's the short-hitter trend. It was in 2003 that the last Heritage winner could be considered long off the tee. That was Davis Love III. Pan, a diminutive 5-foot-6 and 145 pounds, is ranked 170th on the Tour in driving distance. 

So what's next for Pan, and how do we recalibrate him in the fantasy landscape? Well, we may not have to. The 27-year-old Taiwan native who attended the University of Washington, is the seventh first-time winner on the PGA Tour this season. There was Kevin Tway, Cameron Champ, Adam Long, Martin Trainer, Keith Mitchell and Corey Conners. Only Mitchell has done much of anything post-victory. In fairness, let's leave Conners out of that equation since his win in San Antonio was so recent. But the point is, winning for the first time does not signal a marked change; in fact, because of the life-altering nature of the moment, it's more likely that there will be a regression. 

Further, Pan is the fourth straight first-time PGA Tour winner at Harbour Town. Branden Grace has been a world-class player, but it's safe to say that 2017 champ Wesley Bryan and 2018 winner Satoshi Kodaira have done little since their breakthrough moment. 

Pan zoomed from 113th in the world rankings to 55th. He'll get an immediate reward next month by playing in the PGA Championship for the first time, plus get a spot at the WGC event in Memphis this summer.

And, of course, he'll be at the Masters in a little less than a year, getting to Augusta, as his wife had requested, "as soon as possible." 

MONDAY BACKSPIN 

Tiger Woods
Just kidding. Nothing on Tiger this week. 

Dustin Johnson
We knew Harbour Town had a history of winners coming from behind. Still, with Johnson in the lead entering Sunday, it stood to reason that that trend was about to end. But in a performance somewhat reminiscent of another final-round 77, when Johnson lost the Sunday lead and the tournament at the 2017 WGC-HSBC Champions, the world No. 1 collapsed. Landing in a tie for 28th continued a curious Johnson trend this season: He's either finished in the top-10 (six times) or outside the top-25 (four times).

Ian Poulter
Poulter began the day one shot off the lead. He bogeyed twice in the first five holes and that was that. He ended in a tie for 10th. It was a predictable day for the Englishman. While he has three top-10s and eight top-25s in 10 PGA Tour starts this season, his Sunday record is abysmal. Poulter is ranked 171st on Tour in final-round scoring average, just behind that-noted-Sunday-warrior-we're-just-kidding Alex Prugh. Eight top-25s in 10 starts is awesome, for both Poulter and his backers. But when you see the way things play out on Sundays, it's got to be painful for Poulter — and his backers. Poulter is up to No. 26 in the world, but it sure doesn't feel that way. 

Jordan Spieth  
The PGA Tour is just about seven months through its 11-month season. If the playoffs began today, Spieth would not be in them. He has multiple major wins, he's been No. 1 in the world, but none of that matters when it comes to the FedEx Cup playoffs. Spieth tied for 54th at Harbour Town, leaving him 142nd in the point standings. To be sure, one very good week would get him inside the top-125, but that of course is not the point. If you want to find a glimmer, Spieth finished 23rd in the field in strokes gained: putting. He also had four double bogeys. Spieth dropped another spot to No. 35 in the world rankings. 

Francesco Molinari
We don't know why Molinari even bothered to show up. Of course, he committed to Harbour Town in advance, so it's good that he honored that commitment. But after a crushing Sunday at the Masters, he surely was in no position (mentally, emotionally) to play tournament golf four days later. Predictably, Molinari missed the cut. Now, the question is, how long will the Augusta scar tissue linger? 

J.T. Poston
Poston played the weekend in a sterling 67-66 to fly up the leaderboard and tie for sixth. While the third-year Tour player has had a couple of higher numerical finishes, this was his best showing in terms of world-ranking points. Simply put, this field was stronger than in those other two tournaments, so this T6 was worth more. Poston moved from 206th in the OWGR to a career-best 169th. He's had two top-10s and five top-25s in 16 starts this season. If you would tell us that the 25-year-old North Carolinian would be the next golfer to break through with a maiden Tour win, we wouldn't be surprised.  

Seamus Power
Power also tied for sixth, and this was his best result ever on the PGA Tour in terms of world-ranking points. (He's had one better OWGR result, a Web.com win three years ago.) But unlike with Poston, we don't view this as the next step in the career progression of Power. We view it simply as one good week for a player who has been struggling on Tour for three seasons. This was only the 32-year-old Irishman's fifth made cut in 16 starts this season. 

Billy Horschel
Horschel's game has suffered of late, and it's clear where the problem lies: at the tee box. Entering the week, he was ranked 175th in strokes gained: off the tee. Despite the fact that Horschel is not a long hitter, he was almost always ranked in the top-50 in that category, if not higher. We were prepared to say that Horschel straightened things out a bit at Harbour Town, as he had good results through three rounds. But he faded to a tie for 45th with a final-round 75, thanks in large part to a negative day with SG off the tee. One step forward, one step back.

Beau Hossler
In his 10 events in 2019, Hossler has missed five cuts, adding another one on Friday. He's finished in the top-35 just once. He didn't even finish in the top-120 in his Hilton Head trunk-slam. Hossler is only 24, this is second year on Tour, and we often see young players regress in their sophomore seasons. So, it's too soon to panic. A look at the numbers show that the key difference from last year is putting. Hossler was sixth in strokes gained: putting a year ago and now is 46th. Also his SG off the tee numbers have taken a step back. 

Cameron Champ
Champ returned after missing a month with a back injury that caused a WD at THE PLAYERS. At the time, he said it was minor, but the Texas A&M alum subsequently skipped the Texas Open, telling us it maybe wasn't so minor. Now, Champ MCed again this past week. In his past four events, he has three MCs and that WD. Champ's victory and two other top-10s from the fall season are a distant memory. There's no scenario to start Champ in any format until he shows signs of turning things around. 

Bryson DeChambeau
Whatever metric you want to use, whether you want all your irons the same length, whether you want to leave the flag stick in or out, DeChambeau is in DeChambles. He missed the cut at Harbour Town in a tournament at which he had finished top-five two of the past three years. DeChambeau hasn't had so much as a top-10 since the Sony in early January. He's ranked outside the top-100 on Tour in greens in regulation and strokes gained: around the green. With stats like that, it doesn't matter what you do with the flag stick. Or your protractor. 

K.J. Choi
When we wrote in the DraftKings preview last week that the RBC Heritage favored short hitters and older guys, we did not have Choi in mind. But the soon-to-be 49-year-old South Korean tied for 10th, his best showing in a regular Tour event in more than three years. This was only the fifth start of the season for Choi, who is playing under a major medical extension. His previous results were three missed cuts and a tie for 69th at the Valero. After soaring from 846th in the world rankings to 511th, Choi tees it up again this week alongside David Lingmerth in the Zurich Classic team event.