Texas Open Recap: Hoffman Ends Slump

On the one hand, the numbers 70-73-75-75-76-74-75 make for a positively lovely seven-day weather forecast. On the other hand, if you're a PGA Tour golfer and these are your last seven Sunday scores, well, those are some serious dark clouds.

Charley Hoffman is a fairly accomplished golfer, a three-time champion heading into the Valero Texas Open, but his string of Sunday meltdowns this season was pretty remarkable. He was ranked 200th, out of 201 qualifiers, in final-round scoring average. Some serious scrubs were ahead of him.

So when Hoffman sank a nine-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to stave off Patrick Reed and win at TPC San Antonio, it was as if the fog lifted and a rainbow appeared (that sounds delightful, but is it even possible?). Hoffman pumped his right fist, kicked out his right leg, hugged his caddie, hugged Billy Horschel, hugged his wife and kids.

"Being in contention every Sunday and not closing the door is not me," an emotional Hoffman said on TV in the immediate aftermath of all his hugs.

It didn't matter to Hoffman (or those of us who tabbed him) that the Texas Open was one of the weakest fields of the season – it had no golfers in the OWGR top 10 and an OWGR rating of 213, lower than even the Shriners back in the fall. It didn't matter that CBS thought so little of the tournament that Jim Nantz, with many ties to Texas, took the week off, and thought so little of its viewers that there were seemingly more commercials on Sunday than on five years' worth of Masters.

Heck, it even seemed that CBS's top graphics guy was off, as Hoffman's final putt was characterized as "For Birdie" instead of "For the Championship." Hoffman was in the penultimate group with Reed and Horschel, but the final threesome of Ricky Barnes, Brendan Steele and Luke Donald couldn't catch him, even with a 2 on the par-5 18th. And that was quite the moribund final group, a collective 7-over on Sunday. After Hoffman's putt, CBS went into its "Tonight on 60 Minutes" while those three were still coming up the 18th fairway.

Hoffman led after the first round last week at RBC Heritage and was still in the mix come Sunday. But his 75 was nine strokes worse than winner Branden Grace's 66 – and he finished seven shots back. When CBS's Peter Kostis interviewed Hoffman after third round at Harbour Town, he gingerly questioned him about "struggling a bit" on the weekend.
"I think struggling is a nice way to put it," Hoffman said, owning his poor play.

But he has always played well at TPC San Antonio, with a top-13 or better every year since the Texas Open moved there in 2010.

Sometimes, we overthink things in fantasy golf, outsmart ourselves trying to outsmart everyone else. But Hoffman's strong course history, his good early-round play of late and the extremely weak field combined to make this as close to a no-brainer as we'll see on tour all year.

MONDAY TAKEAWAY

Patrick Reed
Reed is tops on tour with eight top-10s this season and is ranked 12th in the world – best in the field at San Antonio. He could've, should've run away with the tournament. Except he can't putt. He was 58th in strokes gained-putting on the week and is outside the top 150 on tour. It's amazing he's done as well as he has all season. He missed nine-foot and 10-foot birdie tries on Nos. 16 and 17 that would've forged a tie. Fun fact (unless you own Reed): He's never finished top-10 in a major.

Ryan Palmer
The Texan was ranked 25th in the world at last year's Valero, where he finished sixth. Then he began a slow drip, drip, drip down the rankings, with only two top-10s in more than a year until his T4 on Sunday. Palmer is now 73rd in the world, 65th in the FedEx cup point standings and he likely enjoyed a one-week boost as opposed to a 2016 renaissance. Proceed with caution.

Martin Piller
The only reason the Texan got into the Valero field was because it was so weak. But he made the most of his opportunity. Heck, he almost won the tournament. Piller tied for fourth, three strokes behind Hoffman, and was actually in the lead until a fatal double bogey on 13. Interestingly, his wife, Gerina Piller, was also in the mix at the Swinging Skirts LPGA Classic on Sunday until, sigh, a fatal double bogey on 11. (Attention In-N-Out: There's a great promotional opportunity here #DoubleDouble.)

Luke Donald
It was surprising Donald was even in contention on a TPC San Antonio course not befitting his game, one week after being in contention on a Harbour Town course that perfectly fits his game. But both times, he did a Sunday fade. Playing in the final group, the Englishman closed with a 74 to tumble to T13. We guess it's an encouraging sign for Donald's game that he could be on the first page of the leaderboard two weeks in a row, on wildly different tracks.

Ricky Barnes
All we heard after Barnes carried the lead into Sunday was that he was winless in 222 career starts. Make that 223. Barnes bogeyed the first hole and shot 74 to tie for fourth. Still a great week, for sure, but don't expect any sort of carryover.

Phil Mickelson
(The standard Phil Mickelson blurb opening in this space is: Oh, Phil.) Oh, Phil. Wanting to get in some more reps after flaming out at the Masters, Mickelson flamed out at the Valero. He shot 77 in the first round and missed the cut by … a lot. Good luck prognosticating his next tournament.

Bryson DeChambeau
Okay, we can hold off on DeChambeau's induction to Cooperstown for now. (Yes, we know that the World Golf Hall of Fame is in Saint Augustine, Fla., and baseball's Hall is in Cooperstown.). After an eye-opening Masters and then a T4 at Hilton Head in his professional debut, DeChambeau Mickelsoned his way out of Texas with a 74-73 trunk slam. The rookie looks like the real deal, but the tour is just too deep now to expect instant greatness. DeChambeau will be fine.

Andrew Loupe
Loupe was a popular pick in the DraftKings universe based on his favorable price ($6,500), his length off the tee and his T4 at the Valero two years ago. Naturally, he cratered with a 76-72, thanks-for-coming-drive-home-safely tournament. Loupe really looks like a golfer who should be better than 77th in the point standings, as he's one of the longest hitters on tour and a pretty good putter. We're not ready to give up on him yet, though hold off on the induction to Saint Augustine (see, it doesn't have a good ring to it).

Patrick Rodgers
Rodgers didn't come out of Stanford last year with the same expectations that accompanied Jordan Spieth when he left college, or with quite the same splash as DeChambeau, but his early PGA Tour career really has been a disappointment. He missed another cut at San Antonio, his sixth in nine starts in 2016. In the other three? Top-25s. So right now there's a lot of volatility in his game, leaning toward the negative. He's young, of course, but we certainly would've expected him to at least sniff a title by now. (He kinda, sorta did last year in the opposite-field Barracuda in Las Vegas, but that was with the funky modified Stableford scoring system.)

Jimmy Walker
The defending champion didn't make it to the weekend and has fully come back to Earth after multiple-win seasons the past two years. Walker is 38th in the point standings and seems a rather ordinary golfer, not even a good bet to make the Ryder Cup team – in fact, he's behind the likes of Kevin Na, Jason Dufner, Kevin Kisner and even Hoffman in the standings. Don't keep picking him based on past glory. It's fading, fast.