Weekly PGA Preview: WM Phoenix Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale
Scottsdale, AZ

The PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale for another rowdy WM Phoenix Open.

Before we get to that, I have to say a few words about last week's debacle. There was nothing wrong with the golf, but a Signature Event ending after only 54 holes in is a bit of a disaster -- especially when it's the first full-field Signature Event of the season. There's not much the PGA Tour could have done outside of starting Wednesday, and that decision is usually made the Monday before the action begins, so they were essentially doomed from the start. The weather was supposed to be bad all week and there was just not enough time to get in all 72 holes. It's a tough break, but it happens. Let's just hope this isn't the start of a trend, as we have had weather-plagued seasons in the past.

Speaking of the weather, the conditions aren't supposed to be great in Phoenix, but not nearly as bad as they were at Pebble Beach. In other words, I don't think they'll have a problem getting in 72 holes. We're back at TPC Scottsdale, which has one of the most famous holes in golf -- the par-3 16th, although its fame has little to do with the hole itself but rather the raucous crowd that surrounds it. We've got a lot of course history in play, and I'll be leaning heavily on it.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler shot a final-round 65 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Nick Taylor.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (5-1)

We're back to the super-low odds on Scheffler, but there's a reason for that this week. It's not just that this field is a little light at the top, it's the fact that Scheffler is the two-time defending champion. Scheffler has not been at his best to start the season, but he's been pretty close. Perhaps a return to Scottsdale will bring out his best game. Even if it does, though, I won't benefit, as I wouldn't take anyone at this price.

Justin Thomas (10-1)

Well, it appears as though Thomas is back. It wasn't that long ago that Thomas was getting 30-1, 40-1 -- or higher -- to win. Now that he is getting back on track, he's back among the favorites. Thomas has not won this event, but he has come close on three occasions, finishing top-4 here three of the last five years. With a strong track record and a game on the rise, Thomas looks like a decent option on a win ticket.

Max Homa (16-1)

Homa hasn't been able to take advantage of a string of tournaments in California, but there's still time, as the Tour heads back there next week. Homa has not missed a cut in five Phoenix starts, but he's also lacking the high-end finishes that you'd like to see. Homa's best result here was a T6 in 2020, and outside of that he hasn't cracked the top 25. Considering he's not at the top of his game right now and his history here is just okay, I'd pass on him at this number.

THE NEXT TIER

Sam Burns (20-1)

I mentioned in the last piece that I liked the way that Burns was trending, and last week's effort did nothing to change that opinion. Burns finished T6 at The American Express a few weeks ago and posted a top-10 this past week at Pebble Beach. Burns' track record here is all over the place, with three missed cuts in five starts, but his best showing here came in 2023, when he finished T6. Expect a similar effort this year, and if everything goes well, perhaps a win.

Wyndham Clark (25-1)

Though unexpected, Clark's U.S. Open win last year didn't come out of blue. He won the Wells Fargo Championship the month prior, which shows that when he's on, he can win multiple times in short span. He'll look to do that again coming off a win at Pebble Beach. His track record here is scattered, with two missed cuts in five starts, but his best showing came this past year when he finished T10, so perhaps it just took him a while to get used to the venue.

Sahith Theegala (35-1)

Theegala had a great result at the season-opening Sentry in which he finished runner-up and grabbed a $2 million payday. However, he fell back to Earth when he missed the cut at the Sony. It took a little time to get his game back, but he appears to be headed in the right direction again, as he posted a T20 at Pebble Beach. Theegala has only played this event twice, but he does have a top-3 already. If his game is truly trending the right way, he has a chance to make a splash here.

LONG SHOTS

Hideki Matsuyama (40-1)

There was a time when you penciled in Matsuyama for the WM Open at the start of every season, but regrettably, he hasn't won here since 2017 -- a win that occurred while defending his 2016 title. He's been here every year since, and while he's missed the weekend just once in that span -- a WD due to injury in 2018 -- he hasn't shown the upside that he once did. He's still playing well here, just not quite at the level he was a few years ago. Still, he knows how to get around this track and he's not that far removed from his best days, so he could be a bit of a bargain at these odds. Bettors agree, as he was at 50-1 when I first started writing.

Rickie Fowler (60-1)

Fowler isn't off to a great start, but his opening round from this past week -- when the weather was still manageable -- gives me some hope for this week. Fowler has a nice track record here, with a win, two runner-ups and a T4 in 15 starts. He also posted a T10 this past year, which in hindsight was a sign of things to come. I'm expecting Fowler to find his form again in Scottsdale.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Justin Thomas - If this were a Signature Event, Scheffler would be the most popular pick, but since we have a smaller purse I doubt many OAD players will be on him. There was a time when OAD players would save Thomas for bigger events, but I'm not sure that's the case any longer. You might as well strike while the iron is hot.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Sam Burns - Burns has certainly grabbed some attention lately, and as such, he should be a fairly popular pick. He is the fifth option on the betting board, so for those thinking about saving Scheffler and Thomas, Burns seems like a solid option.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - As mentioned earlier, there was a time when Matsuyama was easily the most popular play in this event, but those days are gone. With that in mind, there is some opportunity if you're willing to take a guy that's not on top of his game at the moment.

Buyer Beware: Max Homa - As alluded to earlier, Homa didn't play great in two California starts, which is probably a sign that he's not playing his best. If he's not at the top of his game and not in California, then you probably don't want a piece of him.

This Week: Wyndham Clark - I generally like to stay away from the previous week's winner, but in this case I'll make an exception. It sounds strange, but I think the shortened event might help in this case, as Clark didn't have to deal with the mental pressure of hanging onto a lead this past Sunday. That, and as I mentioned earlier, I like using Clark when he's on a heater.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sam Burns ($11,300)
Middle Range: Wyndham Clark ($10,500)
Lower Range: Nick Taylor ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - He will have a great setup this week. He's not at the top of his game, but he's still making cuts, which is always a plus. In addition, he's never missed a cut here. The only time he failed to make a weekend was due to injury. His track record here is unmatched, as he has finished top-20 in seven of 10 starts and his worst finish outside the WD was a T42 in 2021.

Previous Results