Weekly Preview: 3M Open

3M Open

TPC Twin Cities
Blaine, MN

The PGA Tour heads to Minnesota for the third annual 3M Open.

Before we get to this week's event, though, I feel we should take a quick peek back at the Open Championship. With his second major victory, it's safe to say Collin Morikawa has entered the elite level on the PGA Tour. It was more than reasonable to think it would take Morikawa some time to adjust to the Open Championship setup, but it took him merely one round to find his footing, and when it was all said and done he took home the title in his first appearance. Some golfers just have that "it" factor -- it doesn't matter where they play or what the conditions, they just find a way to get it done. It looks like Morikawa is one of those guys, and if his counterparts continue getting bad breaks due to tee times -- or even equipment -- he will find himself in position to rack up more majors. 

Now, onto the matter at hand. The PGA Tour resumes play in Minnesota. For a post-major event, it's not a terrible field, but obviously it's not great either. We now have two editions of this event to analyze as opposed to just the one we had last year, which makes it a bit easier to peg this time around.

LAST YEAR

Michael Thompson shot a final-round 67 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Adam Long.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (8-1)

DJ hasn't played his best golf this year, but when the next biggest name in the field is Louis Oosthuizen -- no offense to Oosty -- the top guy on the board is bound to check in with odds in the single digits. The tricky part is trying to figure out DJ's level of motivation this week. It's odd that a player of his caliber is in the field just a few days removed from a return trip from England, but he's here nonetheless, so hopefully he wants to play. He should have some extra juice trying to make amends for last season's showing, when he shot an opening-round 78 before withdrawing.

Louis Oosthuizen (12-1)

Speaking of Oosty, his was another surprising name to see in the field. But unlike DJ, I'm not bullish on Oosthuizen's prospects. He was again in position to win a second major, but he failed to capture the title in the final round. I have a hard time believing he rebounds quickly and plays well this week. Plus, it seems Oosthuizen is going down the Brooks Koepka road, where his best golf comes primarily in major championships.

Tony Finau (14-1)

Though he's had trouble closing out wins in the past, this looks like a great spot for Finau to capture his second PGA Tour win. If I had a dime for every time I wrote that, I'd have at least a couple dollars by now. Seriously though, for all the grief he gets for his winless streak, he usually plays well week in and week out. Still, is he ever a good bet to win? The answer is no -- not until he breaks the seal at a full-field PGA Tour event.

THE NEXT TIER

Cameron Tringale (25-1)

Here's where we start to see the drop-off in the field. Nothing against Tringale, he's just not a guy we are used to seeing among the second group of favorites. Tringale is having a solid season, though, as he sits just outside the top 30 of the FedExCup Standings. He placed T3 in Minnesota in 2020 and this will be his third trip here, so he's definitely familiar with the track. Look for Tringale to make a run at some point during the tournament.

Emiliano Grillo (35-1)

Grillo went through a rough patch recently, missing three straight cuts on the PGA Tour, but he snapped out of it at the Open Championship and posted a T12. Grillo played well here last year, posting a T3 in his first start at the 3M Open. Grillo has not won this season, but he did post a runner-up at the RBC Heritage in April.

Matthew Wolff (35-1)

I'll start this by stating that if I was anywhere near contention in a One-and-Done league, I wouldn't touch Wolff this week. There's just too much risk. But if we are talking about placing a win bet on him, I think he's worth a look. Wolff has not played well in 2021, but he showed a few weeks ago he still has some game, posting a T15 at the U.S. Open. He's returning to a spot where he has played very well, as he won the inaugural edition in 2019 and finished T12 las year. Perhaps this is the week it all comes together again for Wolff.

LONG SHOTS

Cam Davis (50-1)

Davis played poorly in his first start after his first PGA Tour win, which is understandable. He then had to skip the Open Championship due to logistical issues, so this is really his first true test since winning on the PGA Tour for the first time. By "test," I mean this will be first time we get a glimpse at whether Smith will take off or get complacent. My guess is the former, so I would expect a good effort from him at TPC Twin Cities.

Hank Lebioda (60-1)

Every month it seems there is an under-the-radar golfer that sneaks up, and usually by the time everyone realizes he's playing well, he starts to go downhill. Let's hope that doesn't happen to Lebioda, as he comes in on quite a roll. Lebioda posted top-10s in his three most recent starts, and he's made the cut in his only two starts in Minnesota.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Tony Finau - It's hard to imagine many OAD players have DJ left at their disposal and I'm not high on Oosthuizen this week, so Finau becomes the top option by default. Again, he's not likely to win, but I'd surprised if he plays poorly.

Moderately-owned Pick: Cam Davis - He's not so far removed from his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic that people have forgotten about him, but judging by his odds, the oddsmakers seem to think the public will be down on him. That's certainly fine with OAD players that go with him, as it's the time of the year when you have to make a move if you aren't near the top.

Lightly-owned Pick: Hank Lebioda - Speaking of making a move, if you are desperate to make up some ground, Lebioda could be your man. There's no guarantee that his run is going to continue as he has no history of playing well for a long stretch, but if momentum is anything in his game, he should have a shot at a high finish.

Buyer Beware: Matthew Wolff - I know, he's listed above as a mid-tier pick to win, and I stick by that. But for OAD purposes, I would be cautious. If you are in a good spot in the standings, I would avoid Wolff this week. If you need a home run, feel free to take a shot.

Last Week: Brooks Koepka - T6 - $386,500

Season Total: $6,984,612

This Week: Cam Davis - I wish I had a better option like Finau available, but when you get to the end of the season sometimes your hands are tied. I like Davis this week, don't get me wrong, but with that said, it's time to see what he's made of. If he's truly an top-tier golfer, we'll start to see signs of that with his ability to back up a win.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Dustin Johnson ($12,200)
Middle Range: Cam Davis ($10,100)
Lower Range: Charles Howell III ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Louis Oosthuizen - T3

Streak: 2

This Week: Tony Finau - I can't use him in my OAD league, but I can use him here. Yes, I kept that line in here from last week because it holds true. I worry about the motivation of some of the guys that played the Open, but for me that isn't a concern with Finau. He's constantly on the hunt to validate his resume with another win.