Weekly Preview: Farmers Insurance Open

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines South
La Jolla, CA

The Tour heads a bit to the west and a bit to the south as we get our first glimpse at Torrey Pines this year. As usual, a quality track is bringing out some of the biggest names in golf. It's actually two quality tracks, but Torrey Pines South gets all the love. Speaking of two tracks, we are in the middle of the "course rotation" part of the schedule and while most events have courses that are very similar, this event is the exception as the North course generally plays much easier than the South course. That's not really much of a concern to OAD players as everyone has to play both courses, but if you are looking at mid-tournament odds after round one, you should factor in who played which course on Thursday and adjust your picks from there. As for the big names mentioned earlier, two of the biggest are in play this week as Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy tee it up. Not surprisingly on such a tough track, both Rahm and McIlroy have outstanding track records at this event. I have a feeling we might be talking about them very soon.

LAST YEAR

Marc Leishman shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Jon Rahm.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

It's funny what a big name or two can do to an odds chart. Last week at the Amex, the favorite was 14-1, this week we have two guys in single digits. That's what happens when Rahm and McIlroy show up and the likes of J.T. and DJ are nowhere in sight. As for Rahm, he gets the nod over McIlroy because his track record here is slightly better. Rahm won this event in 2017 and he's earned two top-5s in his three starts since that win.

Rory McIlroy (8-1)

Coming in a close second to Rahm on the odds chart this week is McIlroy, who not so suddenly is having a difficult time closing out again. McIlroy can often look like the best golfer on the planet, but others, he looks like a man who isn't sure how to win anymore. That's the bad news, the good news is, while he struggled after the restart in 2020, he's found his game once again and he's ready to start making a push for some more wins, which is great of OAD leagues, but not so much if you are placing win wagers.

Xander Schauffele (11-1)

Schauffele is generally in this range on the odds chart, not among the favorites, but just outside that group. I like Schauffele but he's been a favorite of the media from almost the get go, which has influenced the public and now it's almost impossible to get good odds on him. He's often in the mix, but he doesn't win at the rate of most guys in this price range, which means there's often not enough value in a win wager. The funny thing about this week is, he has no business being anywhere near single digits, as his track record here is disastrous: He has made five starts and missed four cuts.

THE NEXT TIER

Tony Finau (16-1)

Speaking of getting pumped up by the media. Tony Finau has been an incredibly productive member of the PGA Tour over the past several years, but he doesn't win. He's often in the mix, but he rarely closes. I wanted to say never closes, but he did close...once. As for this week, he's got a shot as his form is good and his track record here is solid with top-25s in all of his six starts at this event.

Harris English (20-1)

English has come a long way over the past 18 months. Prior to the fall portion of the 2019-2020 season, there were still plenty of questions surrounding English's ability to get his game back. Fast forward to 2021 and all the questions are gone. Check that, we still don't know how good he can be. He's got his work cut out for him this week as it won't be easy to best Rahm and or McIlroy, but he's up to the challenge as he proved at the Sentry earlier this year. His track record here is good, but not great, with seven made cuts in eight starts, including two top-10s.

Marc Leishman (40-1)

I'm not fond of backing the defending champion, but Leishman looks like he's rounding into form at the right time. Leishman posted four rounds of 66 or better at the Sony Open two weeks ago and that, coupled with a solid history at this event, makes him a very interesting play at 40-1. Including his win here last year, Leishman has five top-10s in 12 starts and only two missed cuts.

LONG SHOTS

Bubba Watson (45-1)

There are Bubba tracks and there are non-Bubba tracks, and this is a Bubba track. Well, it used to be anyway as he picked up a win here in 2013, but then he didn't play this event in six of eight years, so maybe he's good on Torrey, but he doesn't like it? It doesn't really matter, all that matters is, he knows how to get around these tracks, specifically, Torrey Pines South. Including his win, Watson has four top-10s in nine starts here and only one missed cut.

Brandt Snedeker (200-1)

Past his prime - yeah, nowhere near the top of his game - sure, but 200-1 this week? I don't think so. Actually, those are his odds, I'm referencing the fact that he shouldn't be any worse than 150-1, or 100-1. 200-1? Those are odds for journeymen that have no wins on their resume. Snedeker has nine PGA Tour wins, including two that came at this event, and he's posted four additional top-3s here, including one last year. He's not the same player he was a few years ago, but he's still got enough to make a run here and there.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - It feels a bit too early to use Rahm, but as always, ask yourself when he'll have better odds to win than this week. The answer is, probably not for the remainder of this season. Rahm is not only a former champion here, but he's played a very high level for three of his four starts at this event. His only "slip-up" resulted in a T29 in 2018. Rahm will be a popular pick this week, but there will be plenty of players not willing to use him this early, so this might be a great spot to deploy him.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tony Finau - While wagering on Finau to win has been a wasted proposition for much of the past seven years, he still produces at a high-level in most fantasy formats and that's what we are dealing with here. Finau might not win, but a top-3 here or even a top-5 will make a OAD selection well worth it.

Lightly-owned Pick: Brandt Snedeker - This is going pretty far down the list, but if you want to take a chance on a guy who could vault you to the top of the standings, Sneds might be your guy this week. Honestly, where's the risk? I took Scottie Scheffler last week and he missed the cut, so what's the worst that can happen? You get a goose egg and you burn Snedeker. Not a season killer.

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - Just a week ago I had him as a solid mid-tier pick to win, but there's just something not right with Koepka. He missed the cut this past week and the trend of him not showing up outside of a major continues. Admittedly this feels different though, I'm beginning to wonder if he'll show up for the Masters in a few months.

Last week: Scottie Scheffler - MC- $0

Season Total: $1,387,978

This Week: Marc Leishman - It's early in the season, but I feel like I'm in the wrong lane right now and I'm not sure how to get out. You know the feeling. You make a pick one week, then the next and nothing's working, so you think about mixing it up, yet you end up right where you started -- with a completely justifiable pick. That's Leishman this week. He looks like a good pick, yet I can't shake this feeling that I'm going to get stuck in my lane going with him.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($12,100)
Middle Range: Marc Leishman ($10,400)
Lower Range: Max Homa ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

Streak: 3

This Week: Marc Leishman - I feel much better about Leishman in this format given how frequently he has made the cut. As mentioned earlier, he is playing well, and that should be enough to get him to the weekend.