Weekly Preview: the Memorial

the Memorial Tournament

Muirfield Village GC
Dublin, OH

The PGA Tour heads to Ohio for the next edition of the Memorial.

I was thinking the other day about the old schedule and how the Memorial was one of the bright lights between what was the longest in-season break between majors -- the two months after The Masters and before the U.S. Open. Can you believe we used to have to wait two months? I'm not joking -- how did we make it two months in between majors? The PGA Tour has made several missteps over the years, but restructuring the schedule has been one of their best moves. With that said, tournaments like the Memorial used to carry a bit more cache than they do now, and that's not the fault of these tournaments, it's just that every event from the middle of April through the middle of August is now in the shadow of a major -- and sometimes two. Where once the Memorial was a beacon, now it's just a pretty cool event, played in the shadow of Justin Thomas' win at the PGA Championship and the run-up to the U.S. Open in two weeks. 

Enough of the negativity, though. One very cool thing about this event, at least from a fantasy perspective, is that we have more course history than we know what to do with. It would be nice if most of the golfers were either good or bad here, but for some reason it's not particularly clear who falls in each category. There we go with the negativity again. 

Let's close with this: This week's field is stellar. Neither Thomas nor Scottie Scheffler will tee it up, but just about everyone else is here.
                              
All odds via golfodds.com as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Patrick Cantlay shot a final round 71 on his way to a playoff victory over Collin Morikawa.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (10-1)

And just like that, Rahm is back to being the clear favorite. Perhaps he wouldn't be if the two names mentioned above were playing, but regardless you can see where the oddsmakers are positioning themselves ahead of the U.S. Open. The win Rahm posted about a month ago was supposed to kick-start his season, but it only led to a T48 at the PGA Championship. Now, we did have some funky weather that week, so I'll give him one pass, but just one. You can't underperform as the favorite week-in and week-out and simply take a free ride each time. Rahm won this event in 2020, and he should have won this past year if not for being forced to withdraw following a positive test for COVID-19. He should play well this week, but his odds are too low to feel good about betting on him to wind up on top.

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

It's funny that there's been so much attention paid to the "missed opportunity" for McIlroy at the PGA Championship. He wasn't even really a factor on the weekend. Sure, he got off to a great start, but when do we look at someone who played well on Thursday and act like they've blown a huge opportunity? McIlroy has had better chances to win a major and failed to come through, so I don't think this one should leave a mark. Anyhow, McIlroy fits the mold at Muirfield. He's had both good showings and poor ones here, so current form should dictate his results more than anything else. He should be fine mentally, and he is playing pretty well, so I'm expecting a good showing. At 12-1, though, his price is a little to low for my liking.

Patrick Cantlay (16-1)

Now we're starting to see some value. Cantlay is perhaps the one golfer whose track record at Muirfield can't be questioned. He won this event in 2019 and 2021 and has not missed a cut in five starts. His form is tough to peg right now, as he missed the cut by a country mile at the PGA Championship, but again, the weather played a big role in that and he won his previous start. That was a team event, so some questions remain, but overall, he looks like a decent bet to win.

THE NEXT TIER

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

On a week-to-week basis, there is more volatility in Spieth's odds than perhaps any other superstar on the PGA Tour. While the odds on Rahm, Thomas and McIlroy remain fairly steady, Spieth's fluctuate depending on how he played the week prior. In this case, he played fairly well at the Charles Schwab Challenge, but he fell below expectations, so his odds are a little higher than I expected. He has a solid but unspectacular track record here, which puts him in the mix with a bunch of other guys who could win.

Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1)

The last time I went off feel it didn't pay off, as Collin Morikawa was not ready to handle the weather at the PGA Championship. Still, I'm not going to let that dissuade me from going right back to the gut with this play. Fitzpatrick has long been a popular breakout candidate, but he hasn't managed to find that final gear to put him over the top. While he's played well in spurts for most of his time on Tour, this year feels a little different, and he seems really close to making the leap. His track record here is scattered, but he did post a solo third in 2020.

Will Zalatoris (30-1)

Zalatoris' post-round interview at the PGA Championship two weeks ago had me believing that he was ready to hit the ground running, but that obviously wasn't the case, as he missed the cut last week. Looking back, it makes perfect sense that he'd play poorly after getting so close to not only his first PGA Tour win, but his first major. Now that he's had another week to get past the near-miss, he should be ready to get back to work. He's going to get that first win, and it's going to happen soon. Once he does, the days of getting him at this number will be long gone.

LONG SHOTS

Davis Riley (40-1)

I'm just going to reserve this spot for Riley as long as he keeps playing like he is. Riley was the same price this past week, and the fact that he checks in here again is actually a testament to how well he played, because the Memorial field is much stronger. Riley was actually in the lead at one point Sunday, but he crumbled down the stretch along with some others. Whether he's ready to win an event like this is unknown, but he has the game and is rolling, so he's an interesting play at this price.

Matt Kuchar (60-1)

Raise your hand if you knew that Kuchar was in the top 40 in the FedExCup Standings. Okay, I see a few hands -- not my own -- but it seems crazy that at the age of 43, Kuchar is still hanging with the young guys. Whether he keeps up this pace is unknown, but we are pretty deep into the season already, and he now returns to a course where he has notched seven top-10s in 16 starts. If his game is still good, he could make some noise.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - It's that time of year when percentages are dictated as much by who has been used as who people want to use, so keep that in mind. Let's look at Cantlay, who is bound to be very popular because of his track record. If you've saved him to this point, this is probably the time to use him because he isn't exactly reliable in the majors but is here.

Moderately-owned Pick: Will Zalatoris - There are a couple factors that will keep his usage down this week, including the missed cut last week and the strength of this field, but I feel that I'm not alone in thinking he's very close to picking up that first win. I know, we've been saying this for a while now, but it feels different this time.

Lightly-owned Pick: Davis Riley - I'll just go ahead and leave Riley in this spot as well. If you took him this past week, you didn't break the bank, but you grabbed a nice check from a golfer you probably didn't think you'd take at any point this season, so that's a win in itself. I'm a little hesitant to put him back here this week only because his run has to end at some point and the competition is much tougher, but Riley's rolling right now.

Buyer Beware: Collin Morikawa - I swear, half of these guys are in the same spot as last week. Should we just leave Morikawa here until he figures things out? I gave him a pass at the PGA because of the weather, but he came out last week and posted four rounds in the 70s on his way to a T40, and now I'm wondering what going on. Morikawa lost in a playoff here this past year, so he knows how to get around the course. If he plays poorly, he might be further gone that we thought.

Last Week: Davis Riley - T4 - $353,500

Season Total: $8,135,441

This Week: Matt Fitzpatrick - At the beginning of the season the goal is to not run out of quality players. Near the end, the goal is to not leave any quality players on the bench. With that in mind, it's time to start plotting out your starters for the remainder of the campaign. My worry is that I might not use everyone, as I still have Thomas, McIlroy, Hovland, Rahm and Koepka available. Outside of Koepka, I certainly want to use them all, but I think I can go in a different direction for one more event and still find a spot for each of them later on. This is not a ringing endorsement of Fitzpatrick, but as I stated earlier, I'm going with my gut on this pick.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Patrick Cantlay ($11,700)
Middle Range: Will Zalatoris ($10,700)
Lower Range: Keith Mitchell ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Justin Rose - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Matt Fitzpatrick - I'm not sure what my percentage is when splitting my OAD and Survivor picks, but it's not good, and last week's episode with Rose didn't help those numbers. With that in mind, I'll go back to the double-up with Fitzpatrick. While it's a bit risky going on feel in this format, I dare to say there aren't a ton of safe picks given the erratic track record of nearly everyone in the field.