Weekly Preview: U.S. Open

U.S. Open

Winged Foot Golf Club
Mamaroneck, NY  

The PGA Tour takes a trip back in time this week, as golfers will play a 2019-20 season event even though the 2020-21 campaign has already begun. 

There are a few big questions to ponder before players step to the first tee. Last time we saw Dustin Johnson he was on a major roll, but can he keep up the momentum ? What about the absence of Brooks Koepka? Does that help some guys mentally? How about playing without fans? Do the nerves still kick in like they would if fans were present? 

Some of these questions were answered at the PGA Championship, but this is another level, as the U.S. Open carries more prestige. Fans can create some nervous moments, but they can also be a big help when the conditions are tough. Johnson probably doesn't mind if there are fans are not, but he'll have some pressure to secure major championship No. 2, which would enhance his standing among "the best players ever." And he could face some pressure from his fellow golfers, as without Koepka around to neutralize the field -- only one golfer finished better than Koepka over the last three U.S. Opens -- more guys should have a chance to claim the trophy come Sunday. 

If the PGA Championship is any indication, the cream should rise to the top, but as always, which players will get the job done? That's why we're here to help.

Winged Foot has not hosted a U.S. Open since 2006, so we have virtually no course history to work with. Fortunately, USGA setups are pretty similar from course-to-course, so if a golfer has had success on several U.S. Open tracks, chances are he will fare well this week.

Last Year

Gary Woodland shot a final-round 69 on his way to a three-shot victory over Brooks Koepka.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (8-1)

Johnson has almost everything going for him this week. He finished first or second in each of his past three starts and just won his first FedExCup trophy. I said "almost" everything, though, because there are a couple concerns. First, he's had a week off. During his run he played every week and was able to carry the surge, but he may have relaxed during the brief break. Second, it's a major, and we all know that DJ has struggled at times in these events. He seems unflappable, but he has been one of the best players on the planet for over a decade and has just one major to his name. That's not just bad luck. He should be the favorite, but he's not a lock by any means.

Jon Rahm (10-1)  

The total talent among the top two favorites is immeasurable. The total majors? Just one. Yeah, these guys are good, but this is a major, and things simply play out differently on the biggest of stages. The test for Rahm this week is mental. Can he stay within himself and stay focused, or does he head south as soon as he gets a bad break? Rahm seems to be getting better at that part of the game, and it's almost a given he wins a major at some point. He deserves to be in this spot, now it's up to him to put it all together.

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

Bryson DeChambeau is also 12-1 this week, but McIlroy seems like a more interesting case. McIlroy was seemingly on pace to win double-digit majors early in his career, but he's now going on six years since his last major victory. McIlroy is tough to figure out, as he has all the talent and he's been there, done that. At the same time, why does he seem to struggle with the mental part of the game after all these years? Perhaps the major drought is getting to him.

THE NEXT TIER

Justin Thomas (14-1)

Thomas has just one major as well, but he hasn't played nearly as many as DJ. In other words, there's no reason to believe that there's any mental block when it comes to JT playing majors. As for this major in particular, it hasn't been Thomas' best, but he did post a top-10 in 2018 and he's generally in the mix at big events. Thomas is one guy who has to be happy that Koepka is absent, as that removes one potential barrier between him and another major title.

 Xander Schauffele (16-1)

After an impressive showing at the TOUR Championship, Schauffele is bound to be a hot pick this week. While that's unfortunate in terms of pressure, I'm sure he can overcome the hype and play well anyway. Everyone on the planet expected a good showing from him at the TOUR Championship and he came through. The U.S. Open has been Schauffele's best major in his short career, as he's posted top-5s in all three of his starts.

Webb Simpson (20-1)

In horse racing, or golf for that matter, it's often better to come from off the pace when approaching the finish line. Simpson is, in a sense, starting the week in the middle of the pack, as he's a forgotten man after struggling a bit lately. To be exact, he hasn't fallen off that much, but a T12 at the TOUR Championship was worse than what most expected. This is good for betting purposes, however, as he won't be getting much attention. Simpson won this event in 2012, and it's safe to say he's a better golfer now than he was then.

LONG SHOTS

Tommy Fleetwood (35-1)  

Fleetwood has not played his best golf this season, but some of that can be attributed to the pandemic and his refusal to come back to the States in a timely manner. This is the U.S. Open, though, and he's not about to miss this one. The reason he's on the radar this week, even with the poor recent play, is his track record in this event. Fleetwood finished solo fourth at the U.S. Open in 2017 and runner-up in 2018.

Tyrrell Hatton (40-1)  

Hatton is in the midst of the best PGA Tour season of his career. He picked up his first PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March just before the break and picked up where he left off in June, with top-5s in his first two starts after the break. He posted a solo seventh at the TOUR Championship, which would indicate he's ramping up at just the right time. This is a big stage for Hatton -- that could be an issue -- but I have a feeling there will be several golfers without majors in the hunt come Sunday, and Hatton should be one of them.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Obviously, if you still have Johnson or Rahm, you are going to deploy them. But most owners don't have those two left at their disposal, which means it's time to check out the next tier. Schauffele is going to be popular this week, and even so, he's still a good play. He has some momentum and a solid track record at the U.S. Open.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tyrrell Hatton - There are plenty of reasons to take Hatton this week, but he's not quite at the level where OAD players will feel comfortable using him in this spot. With that said, there are only a couple events left, which means most players have used most of the big names. That pushes Hatton to the front of the line.

Lightly-owned Pick: Tommy Fleetwood - His current form is going to scare plenty people off, but he has the U.S. Open pedigree to succeed. We haven't seen Fleetwood since the end of August, so we have no idea how he's playing right now, which makes him a bit of a wild card. However, he has the upside you need if you are looking to make a big jump up the standings.

Buyer Beware: Bryson DeChambeau - To put it simply, this isn't the major for a bomber. The rough is high and you must hit fairways to succeed. DeChambeau is ranked first on Tour in driving distance, but just 141st in driving accuracy. He won't be able to bomb and gouge this week, and I'm not certain his game is suited to do anything else.

Last Week: Hideki Matsuyama (T15)

Season Total: $7,251,971

This Week: Tyrrell Hatton - There were a few options here, including Daniel Berger, but I don't like the way Berger played the past couple outings, so I sided with Hatton. I could have gone with Tiger, but I might as well save him for the Masters at this point. Hatton might have a hard time winning this week, but I fully expect him to be in the mix on the weekend, which hopefully results in a top-10.

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($11,400)
Middle Range: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800)
Lower Range: Erik van Rooyen ($8,200)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

Streak - 3

This Week: Justin Thomas - It seems I've done a pretty good job stashing my high-end talent in this format all year, which gives me the option to use JT this week. This isn't historically his best major, but it's JT, and I have to use him at some point.