This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Orlando, Florida
Bay Hill Club - Par 72 - 7,466 yards
Field - 120 entrants
Purse - $12M
The Preview
The volatile nature of a difficult track filled with penalty-shot potential was on full display this past weekend at the Honda Classic as Daniel Berger watched his five-stroke 54-hole lead rapidly vanish during Sunday's final round. A similarly tough test awaits this week at Arnie's place, as the Bay Hill Club features treacherous hazards, penalizing rough, lightning-quick bermuda greens and a quartet of demanding par-3s that each measure between 199-231 yards. It's essential to take advantage of the par-5s, which further emphasizes the importance of proximity from north of 200 yards as we see a 29.3 percent approach shot distribution from this range, a nearly 6.5 percent increase from the average Tour stop. This is partly due to the importance of finding the fairway off the tee here, as driving distance is sacrificed on many holes. Wind should provide another element beginning Friday afternoon, with a steady breeze maintaining itself during the final two rounds in Orlando.
Recent Champions
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Matt Every
2014 - Matt Every
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Tiger Woods
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 200-plus yards
SG: Off-the-Tee
Rough proximity
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Jon Rahm - $49
Despite a couple of "disappointing" results for the world No. 1 in recent weeks with finishes of T10-T21 at the WM Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational, Rahm is still first in SG: Off-the-Tee, first in GIR percentage, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds. Rory McIlroy ($48) figures to be an overwhelmingly popular selection given his course history at Bay Hill, so here's a rare chance to pinpoint Rahm at a potentially deflated rostership percentage compared to the norm in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut.
Hideki Matsuyama - $42
Matsuyama is a perfect 7-for-7 in cuts made since 2015 at the API, where his long-iron prowess is allowed to shine. He's gained at least 4.5 strokes from tee to green in six of those seven outings, but a few lousy putting performances have limited him to just one top-10 finish at the venue. Matsuyama has recently gained a collective 9.4 strokes with the flat stick across four events dating to his win at the Sony Open, however.
Will Zalatoris - $39
Zalatoris will draw plenty of attention for lineup consideration with a sub-$40 price tag, and he probably could've been swapped with Sam Burns ($42) on the salary board as the latter has extended his missed cut streak to three consecutive starts since the Farmers Insurance Open. Zalatoris tied for 10th in his API debut last year, when he tied for second in GIRs while playing the par-5s in eight-under-par. Over his last 24 rounds, Zalatoris is second to none in SG: Approach and fifth in proximity from 200-plus yards.
Glue Guys
Matt Fitzpatrick - $35
I was ready to hammer Fitzpatrick at the Genesis Invitational before a stomach flu forced him to withdraw prior to Round 1, but he'll return to action this week at Bay Hill and it might be an even better spot to target the 27-year-old Englishman as he's placed T10-T9-2 the past three years here. Fitzpatrick is sixth in SG: Putting on bermuda and 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee over his last 24 rounds, but he's also No. 1 in P5: 550-600 efficiency during this span. We last saw him at TPC Scottsdale where he gained strokes across the board en route to a T10 finish on the heels of a T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Adam Scott - $34
In his most recent showing, Scott ranked second in SG: Putting and fourth in SG: Approach on the way to a T4 finish at Riviera, holing 19 total birdies and a pair of eagles in the process. He owns two career third-place results at Bay Hill, and notably gained a collective 21.8 strokes from tee to green here from 2014-16. From 200-plus yards out, Scott picked up an average of 9.9 feet in proximity on the field at the Genesis Invitational and 8.8 at the WM Phoenix Open.
Luke List - $32
List's post-win hangover from his Farmers Insurance Open victory has included finishes of T53-MC at the WMPO and Genesis Invitational while losing 7.9 strokes with the putter throughout those six rounds alone, but he'll have a chance to settle in and bounce back at the API where he's placed T63-T10-T7-T17 in four career appearances. List remains first in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds, while also ranking second in Prox: 175-200, third in P4: 450-500 efficiency, fifth in SG: APP and seventh in SG: OTT within this sample size.
Bargain Bin
Keith Mitchell - $25
Mitchell is such an obvious value pick at just $25, coming off a string of three consecutive top-12s since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to go along with a pair of top-6s here at Bay Hill in 2019 and 2020. He'll be locked into a massive chunk of cash-game lineups, but ultra chalky in GPP formats as well. Mitchell is fifth in both SG: Off-the-Tee and bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds.
Sebastian Munoz - $25
Munoz came through for us in the 'Bargain Bin' at this exact $25 salary with a T21 at the Genesis Invitational, so we'll go right back to him, as he sits No. 1 in Prox: 200-plus over his last 24 rounds. He's gained a combined 18.6 strokes from tee to green across his past two starts, resulting in back-to-back top-25s.
Martin Laird - $20
Laird, who emerged victorious at Bay Hill back in 2011, has begun his 2022 campaign with three consecutive made cuts from the FIO through the Genesis Invitational where he gained 3.3 strokes off the tee and another 3.1 with his irons. In six measured starts this season, Laird has posted a positive SG: Putting performance just twice, but each occasion resulted in a top-15 finish. Over his past 24 rounds, he's ninth in P5: 550-600 efficiency, 11th in GIR percentage, 12th in SG: T2G and 14th in P3: 200-225 scoring.
