This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
McKinney, Texas
TPC Craig Ranch - Par 71 - 7,414 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $9.5M
The Preview
K.H. Lee finally let somebody else win the Byron Nelson after the back-to-back champion in 2021 and 2022 played the event's first two editions hosted by TPC Craig Ranch in a collective 51-under-par, with Jason Day stealing the crown here last year at 23-under. As an upcoming Signature Event at Quail Hollow precedes the second major championship of the calendar year, the field strength for the Byron Nelson's new sponsor suffers mightily, though local legend Jordan Spieth will tee it up.
This Dallas-area venue features wide fairways, large greens and a trio of reachable par-5s, so although a handful of lengthy par-4s exist, so too do a magnitude of par-breaker opportunities. The surrounding bermuda rough has become slightly more penal, but it's still wise to wail on driver around this track. Meanwhile, slow-ish bentgrass putting surfaces can expose the field's worst putters. More than a third of approach shots typically come from 200-plus yards at TPC Craig Ranch, so expect quality long-iron players with a hot flat stick to contend down the stretch. The only legitimate defense might be the weather, with plenty of scattered thunderstorms appearing in the forecast this week.
Recent Champions
2023 - Jason Day (TPC Craig Ranch)
2022 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2021 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2020 - None
2019 - Sung Kang (Trinity Forest Golf Club)
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest Golf Club)
2017 - Billy Horschel (TPC Four Seasons)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (TPC Four Seasons)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (TPC Four Seasons)
2014 - Brendon Todd (TPC Four Seasons)
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 200-plus yards
Birdie or Better Percentage
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Si Woo Kim - $38
After finishing runner-up to Day here in 2023, Kim heads back to TPC Craig Ranch as one of the tournament favorites while riding a streak of five consecutive top-30s from the Arnold Palmer Invitational through the RBC Heritage. He paced the Byron Nelson field in both putting average and par-4 scoring last year, and over his past 24 rounds, Kim is second to none in SG: Tee-to-Green and P3: 200-225 Efficiency. Given his past reputation as an entirely volatile player, it's funny to think Kim might actually have the highest floor among the 156 in attendance this week.
Tom Hoge - $37
On the heels of a top-15 effort at the Texas Children's Houston Open, Hoge played even better than his T18 would indicate at the RBC Heritage, where he completely blew up on the 72nd hole with a nine on the par-4 18th at Harbour Town. Nonetheless, he's gained strokes with his irons in every single start this season, but he's also been one of the best putters on Tour since the end of January. Over his last 24 rounds, Hoge sits first in SG: Approach, first in Opportunities Gained, third in Birdies or Better Gained and third in P4: 450-500 Efficiency.
Glue Guys
Alex Noren - $36
Noren is a collective 35-under-par through his first two visits to TPC Craig Ranch, placing T21-T12 here in 2021 and 2022. Much more importantly, the 41-year-old Swede arrives in great form with five straight top-25 finishes from the Cognizant Classic to the Corales Puntacana Championship, ascending to fifth in SG: T2G over his last 24 measured rounds.
Keith Mitchell - $35
Mitchell is on a ball-striking tear as he ranks top-3 in each of SG: OTT, SG: APP and Opportunities Gained over his last 24 rounds, and TPC Craig Ranch generally makes it easy for players to get up-and-down around the greens, which is Mitchell's weakness. He's coming off a T14 at the Valero Texas Open where only Ludvig Aberg gained more strokes off the tee.
Peter Kuest - $28
Recent top-10s at the Valero Texas Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship have Kuest back on a lot of folks' sleeper radars, and he'll especially earn some attention this week given he tied for 14th in his Byron Nelson debut last year when he led the tournament in both SG: OTT and driving distance while also gaining 4.9 strokes with the flat stick. He'll be able to mash the driver often around TPC Craig Ranch once again, inviting potential eagle chances.
Bargain Bin
Kevin Yu - $20
Yu's putting is probably bad enough at this point to cross him off for a podium finish, but he's been so good off the tee and from 175-plus that he should accrue plenty of opportunities to score for us, which is a much bigger deal than placement points at the minimum price. Over his last 24 measured rounds, he's No. 1 in SG: OTT and third in Prox: 200-plus.
Daniel Berger - $20
Yahoo remains steady in their undervaluing of Berger relative to the rest of the betting and DFS market as he continues to shake off the rust, but he's made the cut in each of his past two starts now, recording scores of 70 or better in seven of those eight rounds. He excelled as a ball striker during his lone trip to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, gaining a combined 9.4 strokes off the tee and with his irons en route to a T3 result.
Jhonattan Vegas - $20
Vegas hasn't lost strokes on his approaches since the Farmers Insurance Open in late January, and over his last 24 measured rounds, he ranks top-20 in each of SG: OTT, driving distance and Opportunities Gained. He tied for ninth at the 2021 Byron Nelson when he paced the field in driving distance while also hitting 61 of 72 greens in regulation. Vegas has a putting problem, but I'll happily lean into that variance for such a quality ball striker at this rate.
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