This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Determining the proper sample size to analyze statistics can be a tricky endeavour. While season-long stats hold weight, current form needs to be accounted for, too. As the season's conclusion nears, identifying recent trends which present mismatch opportunities should help through the final weeks.
In particular, a look at home-away splits has gleaned a number of outliers where players can be targeted and their opponent's picked on. Here are the home and away stat packs which date back to Feb. 1. They're sorted highest to lowest in terms of goals per game.
Digging Deeper
PDO was included because it is a solid indicator of how sustainable the recent trends are. Evaluating a player's PDO was a strategy discussed in a previous article, and remains an excellent tool for gauging regression. The same stands at the team level, too.
CorsiFor% isn't a significant indicator for the daily puzzle, however, over a reasonable sample size it is a strong statistic to consider when evaluating matchups.
PDO Home Outliers
Tampa Bay - 105.1 - The Lightning have been one of the best teams in the league at home all season where they boast a 103.9 PDO. It is unlikely they'll ever fall too far below that mark, too. Ben Bishop is an otherworldly 25-5-1 with a .928 save percentage and a 2.06 goals-against average on home ice. Plus, they're the highest scoring team in the league with exceptional depth.
Arizona - 95.0 - The 17 goals in 14 home games is awful, and they won their first regulation game in their past 23 games Tuesday. They're bad, and unlikely to sway too far in the opposite direction. However, no team can sustain a 95.0 PDO for too long. Expect improvement, but they're still a favorable matchup.
St. Louis - 97.0 - This is more a result of a difficult recent schedule than anything, as St. Louis had a 103.0 PDO from the beginning of the season to Feb. 1. St. Louis is hardly a sleeper team, and their schedule doesn't soften up, either. Still, expect a slight uptick in production throughout the roster until the end of the season.
CorsiFor% Home Outliers
Carolina - 56.3 percent - This is extremely interesting because the Hurricanes have lost five straight home games and are 4-6-3 since Feb. 1. So despite being a dominant possession team in Raleigh, are they a daunting matchup? Potentially starting an away goalie against Carolina is a sound strategy. They average just 2.23 goals per game despite being tied for the league-best CorsiFor% at home, which indicates they're at least attempting a lot of shots.
Buffalo - 37.0 percent - With an average of just 23.9 shots per game during the span, it can be extremely difficult to trust an opposing goalie starting in Buffalo. While they've been held to two goals or fewer eight times, they've only been shutout twice. It is difficult for goalies to rack up fantasy points without a lot of shots, and while the win bonus is next to guaranteed, Buffalo's opposing goaltender typically carries a high ownership percentage.
Los Angeles - 56.3 percent - The offensive upside is there for the Kings, but they're not consistently scoring. It is as simple as that. Los Angeles has been held to fewer than two goals in six of 10 home games since Feb. 10. Interestingly, they've scored at least three goals in each of the other four games. It adds up to their more pricey skaters carrying substantial risk.
PDO Road Outliers
Minnesota - 105.6 - The inflated PDO is clearly indicative of the Wild's current 10-game road winning streak. It can largely be attributed to their impressive defense, though, as Minnesota has allowed just 12 goals through the 10 games. Devan Dubnyk's impact is clear, and the Wild are the best team in the league since acquiring him. While there is no reason to expect a significant slide, a slight regression is likely.
Toronto - 94.1 - The Maple Leafs' only road win of 2015 came against Florida when both their goaltenders were injured. Let that sink in, because otherwise they've lost all 21 road outings since the calendar flipped to 2015. Their offense is non-existent, and their goaltending and defense are just as bad. There could be slight improvement, but the Maple Leafs are still a team to stack against, especially away from the Air Canada Center.
Philadelphia - 96.3 - Going winless during their recent four-game road trip through Canada extended Philadelphia's road losing streak to nine games. It all adds up to a 3-11-7 record over their last 21 road games. At this point, a three-point win bonus is nearly a lock for home goalies when Philadelphia comes to town. Thankfully for their fans, Philly has just two road games left this season.
Ottawa - 105.1 - Amazingly, the Senators now control their destiny for a playoff birth, and their current run is reminiscent of Minnesota's. Currently riding an 8-0-1 road record, the bubble is likely to burst at some point, especially with starter Andrew Hammond teetering on imploding. After all, he has allowed nine goals over his last three starts.
CorsiFor% Road Outliers
Colorado - 41.4 percent - It is too little, too late from the Avs, as they're finally winning games, albeit with the same weak possession statistics from last season. Their style is favorable for Semyon Varlamov's upside, especially on the road, where they've gone 6-4-1 since Feb. 1. It is worth noting Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene have all picked up their offensive production over the past two months.
Minnesota - 43.9 percent - The poor possession numbers are another reason it is unlikely that the Wild will fully continue their current road dominance. For the season, Minny is an average possession team (51.3 percent) with a 100.1 PDO, so expect them to finish closer to those marks than their current extremes.
Montreal - 45.3 percent - The eye test and statistics support Carey Price's dominance, and since Feb. 1, he is 13-5-3 with five shutouts and a .945 save percentage. The Habs are top heavy, as P.K. Subban (19 points, plus-11 and 53 shots in 24 games) and Max Pacioretty (24 points, plus-17 and 106 shots in 24 games) have been equally impressive during the stretch. Those are your building blocks for daily, but expecting the team as a whole to take a step forward isn't advised.
