DraftKings MMA: UFC on FOX 21 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC on FOX 21 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The next challenger for the UFC Welterweight Championship may very well emerge from Saturday's main event in Vancouver.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Welterweight

Demian Maia (23-6-0) v. Carlos Condit (30-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Maia ($9,600), Condit ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Maia (+100), Condit (-120)

Condit and Maia, both veterans, have been around the sport forever, but both remain at the top of their game heading into Saturday. When push comes to shove, this should be a terrific main event. Condit came up short in his quest for the UFC Welterweight Championship in his last fight, dropping a split decision to former champion Robbie Lawler. It was a hard, competitive fight for 25 minutes, and although the judge's probably got the call correct, Condit once again proved that he is as good as any 170-pounder in the world. He spoke of retirement following the Lawler fight, but his game hasn't slipped in the least, and the only reason he could conceivably retire at age 32 would be to spend more time with his family. Condit is somehow 2-4 in his last six fights, but all four of those losses have come against either current (Tyron Woodley) or former (Lawler, Johny Hendricks, Georges St-Pierre) UFC Welterweight Champions.

Maia looked sluggish in back-to-back losses to Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald in late-2013 and early-2014, but it's been clear sailing from there. The Brazilian has won five fights in a row, and his last three have come against a trio of dangerous 170-pounders in Matt Brown, Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny. Don't let Maia's advanced age (38) fool you - you can count on one hand the amount of fighters who can come remotely close to competing with him on the ground. The Magny fight in particular was a clinic on how to dominate your opponent on the mat.

Picking a winner in this fight is entirely dependent on where you expect this fight to take place. Condit is a terrific ground specialist in his own right (he has 13 career wins by submission), but I don't think anyone would disagree when I say that Maia holds the edge in that area. Condit's advantage in the striking game is going to be a huge factor in this fight. Condit is far more explosive in terms of throwing repeated combinations. He relies on constant pressure, as opposed to one-punch knockout power, and it serves him well. While Maia is a better grappler, Condit has a far more significant advantage on the feet, which is the main reason he is my pick. When it comes down to it, there is little separating these two and it is difficult to pick a winner with any confidence.

THE PICK: Condit

Co-Main Event – Featherweight

Anthony Pettis (18-5-0) v. Charles Oliveira (21-5-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries:Pettis ($10,400), Oliveira ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Pettis (-185), Oliveira (+160)

After a long run as one of the best lightweights in the world, Pettis will make his featherweight debut here. The entire tenor of this fight surrounds Pettis' ability to bounce back from an unprecedented three-fight losing streak. Not only has Showtime not won a fight in more than a year and a half, he has looked downright dreadful for the majority of that time period. He was hesitant and struggled with his decision-making in his last loss to Edson Barboza in April. Pettis is an elite athlete, but he appears to be thinking in the octagon instead of simply reacting. Pettis has been a champion in every single organization in which he has fought, but this looks nothing like the guy who was viewed as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world not all that long ago.

I have long been of the opinion that Oliveira is one of the more underrated fighters in the sport. He has seemingly been around forever, but he won't turn 27 until next month, and he already has a fought a countless number of top opponents (Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Donald Cerrone, Jeremy Stephens). Oliveira is a wizard on the mat, with 13 of his 21 career wins coming via submission. Do Bronx has won five of his last six, and the only setback in that span was the result of a fluke injury sustained in a main event fight against Holloway last August. Oliveira missed weight a couple of times early on in his UFC career, but he has seemingly figured out that aspect of the game and it hasn't been an issue recently. I have no other complaints whatsoever regarding his performances over the past three-plus years.

It's mind boggling that Pettis has even gotten to this point in his career, but here we are. One of these days he is going to put forth one of his trademark performances that made him the best in the world at one point, but who can truly say when that will be? I'm always hesitant to use a fighter competing in a new division for the first time because it's a toss up as to what you will get from them. You have to choose an underdog here and there, and there have been enough red flags from Pettis recently that I'm picking Oliveira. Still, I think there is a better than even chance that this fight goes the distance, thus making both fighters poor DraftKings plays. 

THE PICK: Oliveira

Women's Strawweight

Paige VanZant (6-2-0) v. Bec Rawlings (7-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: VanZant ($10,800), Rawlings ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: VanZant (-210), Rawlings (+175)

VanZant is young (22), marketable and talented, but the UFC pushed her too quickly and she was thoroughly overwhelmed in her loss to Rose Namajunas in December. All of the things that make PVZ a top prospect: pace, cardio, and wrestling ability, were missing in the Namajunas fight. I believe that was the result of Paige just not having enough reps under her belt to compete with a top-five fighter. She will probably get there one day, but she isn't there yet. Thankfully, this figures to be a much easier day at the office.

Rawlings is an interesting and unique personality, but her abilities inside the cage are limited. A former competitor on Season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter, Rawlings is officially 2-1 in her UFC career, having won back-to-back fights over Seo Hee Ham and Lisa Ellis. Rawlings is tough as nails and has a decent submission game, but that's about it. I imagine she will struggle with what figures to be constant pressure from PVZ.

This seems like poor matchmaking because both of these young women are popular, and the stock of the loser (especially if it's PVZ) is going to take a serious hit. The biggest difference here is that there is a clear difference in the future potential of the two fighters. VanZant has a lot of work to do, but she has a very high ceiling. I wouldn't be picking her against the top 115-pounders in the world at this point, but that's not a concern in this fight. I think we may have already seen the best Rawlings has to offer, and even if we haven't, I don't see her beating clear-cut top-10 strawweights at any point in her career. This is an easy pick for me.

THE PICK: VanZant

Lightweight

Joe Lauzon (26-12-0) v. Jim Miller (26-8-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Lauzon ($10,300), Miller ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Lauzon (-145), Miller (+125)

It will be a very quick turnaround for Lauzon, who knocked out Diego Sanchez in 86 seconds in early-July at UFC 200. When you take into account Lauzon's lack of power and Sanchez's legendary durability, it has the look of a fluky finish, but it will go down in the record works as a much needed win for the Massachusetts native. J-Lau has been in a lot of wars in his 32 years, but he still retains some of the best submission skills in the game. He's tall for a lightweight (5-foot-10) and has mastered using his long limbs to his advantage. He's so good on the mat that if he can put forth even an average performance on the feet, he stands a decent chance of winning.

Miller, like Lauzon, has developed into a fighter who struggles to win anything other than a ground battle at this point in his career. He relies on grit and determination, and while he's a decent wrestler who has the able to grind out decisions, the striking skills just aren't there for him to compete with better fighters. Miller is also coming off an impressive first-round TKO win (Takanori Gomi) in his last fight. Miller is 2-4 in his last six bouts, although in his defense, they have pretty much all been against quality opponents.

In this bout there are two ground specialists who are on the downside of their careers, and are both coming off first-round TKO wins. Who knows what to expect here? This is your classic fight to avoid in all formats. I'm picking Lauzon because I know he is going to try to go right after Miller – he knows no other way to fight. Beyond that, I have no idea what is going to happen in this one.

THE PICK: Lauzon

Other Bouts


Middleweight

Sam Alvey (27-8-0, 1NC) v. Kevin Casey (9-4-1, 2NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Alvey ($10,200), Casey ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Alvey (-225), Casey (+185)
THE PICK: Alvey

Featherweight

Enrique Barzola (11-2-1) v. Kyle Bochniak (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Barzola ($10,100), Bochniak ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Barzola (+150), Bochniak (-170)
THE PICK: Bochniak

Middleweight

Garreth McLellan (13-4-0) v. Alessio Di Chirico (9-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McLellan ($8,400), Di Chirico ($11,000)
Vegas Odds: McLellan (+185), Di Chirico (-225)
THE PICK: Di Chirico

Lightweight

Shane Campbell (12-5-0) v. Felipe Silva (7-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Campbell ($8,800), Silva ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Campbell (-125), Silva (+105)
THE PICK: Silva

Lightweight

Chad Laprise (11-2-0) v. Thibault Gouti (11-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Laprise ($9,900), Gouti ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Laprise (-300), Gouti (+250)
THE PICK: Laprise

Middleweight

Ryan Janes (8-1-0) v. Adam Hunter (7-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Janes ($9,700), Hunter ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Janes (+140), Hunter (-160)
THE PICK: Hunter

Lightweight

Jeremy Kennedy (8-0-0) v. Alessandro Ricci (10-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Kennedy ($9,800), Ricci ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Kennedy (-155), Ricci (+135)
THE PICK: Kennedy

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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