The UFC is back to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 272 which goes down on Saturday, March 5. In the main event, former roommates and best friends turned enemies collide, as Colby Covington takes on Jorge Masvidal.
In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from DraftKings online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Dustin Jacoby (16-5-1) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-4)
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Normally I don't like taking someone near -200, but I think the odds are off on this one, as Dustin Jacoby could very well be a -250 to -300 favorite in this one.
This is a battle between two strikers, and Jacoby is much better than Oleksiejczuk. Jacoby is much more active on the feet, as he lands 5.20 significant strikes per minute and has good head movement. His leg kicks from his days as a Glory kickboxer will also play a factor here.
Why I like Jacoby so much is due to the fact just last year, Oleksiejczuk struggled against Modestas Bukauskas, and it's a fight I think, like many, believe Bukauskas won. He was able to pick Oleksiejczuk apart and not let him get inside. Jacoby can do just that. He will just stay to the outside and use his experience as a professional kickboxer to pick apart his opponent and get the win.
The Play: Dustin Jacoby (-190)
Edson Barboza (22-10) vs. Bryce Mitchell (14-0)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Bryce Mitchell gets his first fight since October of 2020, and it's a tough one, as he takes on Edson Barboza, who I actually like as the underdog.
When this fight was made, I expected Barboza to be the favorite. That was not the case, however, and money has come in on Mitchell. On the feet, Barboza is miles better than Mitchell, and the only path to victory for the Arkansas native is to get the Brazilian down and hold him there.
However, we saw Makwan Amirkhani have a similar approach, and Barboza is so strong at featherweight he was able to keep it standing. Mitchell only has a 46 percent takedown accuracy while Barboza has a 78 percent takedown defense. Although I do think Mitchell will get Barboza down at some point, as Amirkhani did at points, Barboza should be able to get right back to his feet and just piece up Mitchell to the body and legs and eventually get the TKO win.
The Play: Edson Barboza (+145)
Colby Covington (16-3) vs. Jorge Masvidal (35-15)
Weight Class: Welterweight
In the main event, the grudge match finally happens, and I'm on Covington. It's hard to lay -320 straight, but there is a way to turn a -300 favorite to a +300.
If Covington wins, most people tend to think it will be decision, however, I expect him to be able to TKO Masvidal. Masvidal, for the longest time, was considered to have one of the best chins in the sport, but in his last fight, we saw him get knocked out cold by Usman. Often times in MMA, once we have seen someone get KO'd once, their chin starts to fade.
I expect Covington to get the fight to the ground and land vicious ground and pound. I'm not expecting this to be a standing KO as Usman did, but "Chaos" truly hates Masvidal, so I do think he will take more risks on the ground and look for the finish, which I think he gets in the third or fourth round.
The Play: Colby Covington wins via KO/TKO/DQ (+300)
Marina Rodriguez (15-1-2) vs. Xiaonan Yan (13-2) &
Kevin Holland (21-7) vs. Alex Oliveira (22-11-1)
Weight Class: Strawweight & Welterweight
For my parlay, I'm backing Marina Rodriguez and Kevin Holland to pick up wins.
In my first leg, I don't understand this fight, as Rodriguez has a ton of momentum and could be fighting for the belt with a win. Yan, meanwhile, just got dominated against Carla Esparza and is known as a striker. Rodriguez is the superior striker, however, and she has legitimate power. I expect her to piece up Yan on the feet to win a decision.
In the other leg, Kevin Holland drops down to welterweight and gets a very favorable matchup. Holland is 0-2 with one No-Contest in his last three fights. In those matchups, he was outwrestled and just held down at middleweight. In his 170lbs debut, he faces a striker who has worse grappling than he does. On the feet, Holland is the much better striker and will just style on Oliveira, likely getting the first-round finish.
The Play: Rodriguez & Holland (-122)
