This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Austin, Texas on Saturday, June 18 for UFC Austin. In the main event, Calvin Kattar takes on Josh Emmett.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay on. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Middleweight
Albert Duraev (15-3) vs. Joaquin Buckley (14-4)
I usually don't like laying over -200 on a play, but I personally lined Albert Duraev above -300 for his middleweight fight against Joaquin Buckley.
Duraev is coming off a solid UFC debut, as he beat Roman Kopylov by decision. In the fight, he was able to show off his striking and wrestling. The wrestling, however, will be the key reason he wins this fight, as Buckley's kryptonite throughout his career has been wrestlers.
Buckley is a very good striker with KO power, but Duraev will shoot for takedowns early and often. He'll eventually wear on Buckley and either grind out a decision or get a ground-and-pound TKO.
UFC Austin Bet: Albert Duraev (-220)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Joe Lauzon (28-15) vs. Donald Cerrone (36-16)
In the co-main event, Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone are finally set to meet, and once again, I'm taking Lauzon to get the win as an underdog.
Both Lauzon and Cerrone are at the end of their careers, and their chins are a concern, but more so is Cerrone cutting down to lightweight twice. Cerrone has been vocal in saying how the cut to 155 is not an easy one, and after making weight once back in May, he now has to cut down once again.
Along with that, Lauzon is a bad style matchup for Cerrone, as Lauzon is a fast starter, while 'Cowboy' is known to start slow. The best way to beat Cerrone is to get after him early and get the stoppage win. Lauzon has the power to do that, and given he starts slowly, I think he can get that early stoppage. To me, this is a pick'em fight, so to get Lauzon as a dog makes it a must-play.
UFC Austin Pick: Joe Lauzon (+145)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Kevin Holland (22-7) vs. Tim Means (32-12-1)
Kevin Holland is back and remaining at welterweight, and he gets a very favorable matchup in the process, as he is taking on Tim Means.
Holland is a dynamic striker who has a ton of power, while Means is there to be hit. Although he is on a nice winning streak, Holland will be the best opponent he has fought.
Holland averages 3.84 strikes per minute and only absorbs 2.38. Meanwhile, Means averages 5.06 but absorbs 3.58. However, Holland will be much faster than Means and does have more power. He will be able to hurt Means and either get the knockout or get the submission, similar to what Daniel Rodriguez did to him when he hurt him with strikes before grabbing the neck.
UFC Austin Pick: Kevin Holland ITD (+165)
Weight Class: Middleweight & Featherweight
Kyle Daukaus (11-2) vs. Roman Dolidze (9-1)
Ricardo Ramos (15-4) vs. Danny Chavez (11-4-1)
For my parlay, I'm taking Kyle Daukaus and Ricardo Ramos to get the win on Saturday night.
Daukaus is facing Roman Dolidze, which is a good matchup for the American, as Dolidze tries to lay on his opponents and win fights that way. However, Daukaus is the better wrestler and grappler who also has decent striking. He can out-volume Dolidze and then mix in the wrestling to win a clear-cut decision.
On the other leg, I'm taking Ramos to beat Danny Chavez. Ramos has a very similar style to Jared Gordon, who was able to take Chavez down and hold him there to ride out a win. The Brazilian can do just that, or he can just use his reach advantage and use his jab to score points and not let Chavez get inside. This fight might not be the most entertaining, but Ramos has the style to negate Chavez's offense and win a decision.
UFC Austin Pick: Daukaus & Ramos (-116)
UFC Austin Bets Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Austin event:
- Albert Duraev (-220)
- Joe Lauzon (+145)
- Kevin Holland ITD (+165)
- Kyle Daukaus & Ricardo Ramos parlay (-116)
