This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, with a featherweight clash between Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen headlining the card.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (18-5-1) vs. Khalil Rountree (10-5)
Dustin Jacoby is in his second UFC stint and is undefeated this time around, as he has gotten much more fighting experience and is much better. Against Khalil Rountree, this should be a great fight, as both men are excellent kickboxers.
Yet, the problem with Rountree throughout his career is sometimes he is on, and sometimes he's off and doesn't look like he wants to be there. The common theme of his career is he is a great hammer but a bad nail. Jacoby will be aggressive from the jump and will be the more active striker. He's landing 5.27 significant strikes per minute, while Rountree lands just 3.34 and has a striking defense of 49 percent.
Jacoby should be able to out-volume Rountree and will likely win a decision, although getting a stoppage is possible.
UFC Vegas 63 Best Bet: Dustin Jacoby (-170)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski (34-20) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-8-1)
Andrei Arlovski is still fighting and finds himself entering as a big underdog against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, which I don't agree with.
Arlovski is currently a +205 underdog, and although I do favor Rogerio de Lima, I had him only as a -150 favorite, as he has often times not looked the best. Arlovski, meanwhile, is always in close fights as of late. He has pulled off wins as an underdog against the likes of Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins while also being 6-1 in his last seven. Rogerio de Lima, meanwhile, has been up and down throughout his career.
I expect Arlovski to defend the takedowns, as he has 76 percent takedown defense. On the feet, his slight volume edge can be the difference. This is a much closer fight than the odds suggest, so I'll take +205 on the former champ.
UFC Vegas 63 Best Bet: Andrei Arlovski (+205)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Chase Hooper (11-2-1) vs. Steve Garcia (12-5)
Chase Hooper has been carefully match-made at 23 years old, and he gets another favorable matchup here in Steve Garcia. Garcia is dropping down to featherweight just four months after suffering a KO loss to Maheshate in the first round.
Everyone knows how dangerous Hooper is on the ground, but in his last fight, he showed off his striking and ground-and-pound, which he has been working on with Stephen Thompson at his gym. Hooper has also finished all of his three UFC wins, and I like him here to win inside the distance.
Garcia, meanwhile, has been submitted in his career, in addition to getting rocked and knocked down several times in his UFC tenure. With that, his chin is a concern, and even more so now that he's dropping down to 145 pounds. Take Hooper to win inside the distance here, as either a submission or ground-and-pound TKO victory is likely.
UFC Vegas 63 Best Bet: Chase Hooper ITD (-110)
Weight Classes: Heavyweight & Welterweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (7-0) vs. Jared Vanderaa (12-9)
Max Griffin (18-9) vs. Tim Means (32-13-1)
For the parlay, I'm backing Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Max Griffin to pick up wins on the main card of UFC Vegas 63.
Cortes-Acosta is making his UFC debut against Jared Vanderaa, who has lost four-straight fights and is just 1-5 in the UFC. Vanderaa has struggled especially of late, as he was knocked out by Chase Sherman and submitted by Aleksei Oleinik. Cortes-Acosta, meanwhile, is a dangerous striker and should be able to piece up Vanderaa to eventually get a stoppage win here.
In the other leg, I'm backing Griffin to beat Tim Means. Griffin is coming off a split-decision loss to Neil Magny and showed off a ton of improvement. In this fight, both Griffin and Means should be there to stand and trade, but Griffin will likely be the faster striker and land the better shots. Griffin will also have the wrestling and grappling ability to either get a submission win or a clear-cut decision win.
UFC Vegas 63 Best Bet: Waldo Cortes-Acosta & Max Griffin parlay (+128)
UFC Vegas 63 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 63 event:
- Dustin Jacoby (-170)
- Andrei Arlovski (+205)
- Chase Hooper Inside the Distance (-110)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta & Max Griffin parlay (+128)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
