This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC remains at the Apex for UFC Vegas 49 as Islam Makhachev remains on the card against short-notice replacement, Bobby Green in a 160lbs catchweight main event.
In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a three-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from DraftKings online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Terrance McKinney (11-3) vs. Fares Ziam (12-3)
Weight Class: Lightweight
This card is full of heavy favorites over -200, so I'm going to back Terrance McKinney at +100 as my regular play.
McKinney is coming off his seven-second KO win over Matt Frevola in his UFC debut, while Fares Ziam just hasn't impressed me in his three UFC fights. He suffered a decision loss to Don Madge and then beat Jamie Mullarkey by decision and Luigi Vendramini by majority decision (on the same card McKinney KO'd Frevola).
I don't think Ziam won either of those fights, however, as he should've been 10-8'd in the third round against Vendramini. Out of 17 media scorecards, 15 had Mullarkey winning, but in those fights, he doesn't do anything special.
Ziam also isn't active on the feet, as he only lands 2.13 significant strikes per minute and has an 11 percent takedown accuracy. Effectively, I don't expect him to be able to take McKinney down. When standing, McKinney will be in his face and just out-volume Ziam to either get a decision or find the knockout shot.
The Play: Terrance McKinney (+100)
Armen Petrosyan (6-1) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (11-3)
Weight Class: Middleweight
For my underdog play, I'm taking Armen Petrosyan to defeat Gregory Rodrigues in his UFC debut.
Petrosyan fought at light heavyweight and is dropping down, where he'll have a size and power advantage. Although Rodrigues is coming off a commendable KO win over Jun Yong Park, he still is there to be hit, as he absorbs 4.35 significant strikes per minute. In the small sample size we've seen from Petrosyan, he throws high volume, landing 20 significant strikes in 4:27 in his Contender Series bout.
Although Petrosyan's wrestling defense leaves a lot to be desired, he does get up rather easily, so I doubt Rodrigues will be able to keep him down. On the feet, Petrosyan is a better striker and will eventually find the KO shot as Rodrigues.
The Play: Armen Petrosyan (+140)
Josiane Nunes (8-1) vs. Ramona Pascual (6-2)
Weight Class: Women's Featherweight
Josiane Nunes is coming off a vicious KO over Bea Malecki in her UFC debut and now takes on short-notice replacement Ramona Pascual.
Nunes showed off her impressive striking and KO power while Pascual doesn't do anything great. She's a decent striker and wrestler, but on short notice, I have concerns about her cardio and how she will win this fight.
On the feet, Nunes will be able to get inside and likely find that KO shot again, but rather than taking Nunes by KO/TKO at -110, it's safer to take inside the distance at -120, as she could drop Pascual and submit her. Regardless, Nunes should be able to make easy work of Pascual on Saturday night.
The Play: Josiane Nunes inside the distance (-120)
Islam Makhachev (21-1) vs. Bobby Green (29-12-1),
Ramiz Brahimaj (9-4) vs. Micheal Gillmore (6-4) &
Ignacio Bahamondes (12-4) vs. Zhu Rong (18-4)
Weight Classes: Lightweight, Welterweight & Lightweight
Usually I only do a two-fighter parlay, but with all the heavy chalk on this card, I'm making it a three-fighter one, backing Islam Makhachev, Ramiz Brahimaj and Ignacio Bahamondes.
In the main event, Makhachev is taking on a short-notice replacement in Bobby Green, and this is a tough matchup for Green. Makhachev is a phenomenal wrestler and will be able to take Green down at will to likely find that submission, which I think happens early in the fight.
For the second leg, I'm taking Ramiz Brahimaj to defeat Micheal Gillmore, who is not UFC caliber. Gillmore is dropping down to welterweight, and although Brahimaj is coming off a beatdown of a loss to Court McGee, this is a tailor-made matchup. Gillmore has struggled against grapplers, and Brahimaj is an excellent grappler who will get the submission win.
In the final leg, I'm taking Ignacio Bahamondes to defeat Zhu Rong. Rong doesn't throw enough volume for my liking, and I expect Bahamondes to be in his face the entire fight. He will use his reach advantage to land the jab and just out-volume Rong to get a decision win.
The Play: Makhachev, Brahimaj & Bahamondes (+111)
