Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 320
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 320 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 270-112-1 ~ Dog Picks 41-31-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Andre Muniz +250
Bet of the Week Record: 21-10-1 +2128
DFS Lock of the Week: Punahele Soriano - 24-5
Fanduel Captain: Soriano/Dvalishvili
Magomedov Ankalaev (21-1-1) v. Alex Pereira (12-3-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21 wins (11 KO/TKO, 10 decisions)
- Patient counter-striker with strong wrestling base
- Tactical and durable, but sometimes struggles to pull the trigger offensively
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (10 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- Elite kickboxer with fight-ending power in both hands
- Dangerous in every striking exchange, especially if he ups his output
DFS Perspective: Pereira feels undervalued as the dog in this rematch. If he can increase his offensive output, his size, power and striking pedigree give him a real shot at stealing momentum and landing a finish. Ankalaev remains the safer, grinding-style pick, but Pereira's knockout potential at underdog pricing makes him an excellent DFS play with big upside.
UFC 320 Pick: Pereira
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Merab Dvalishvili (20-4-0) v. Cory Sandhagen (18-5-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20 wins (3 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 15 decisions)
- Relentless wrestler with unmatched pace and cardio
- Chains takedowns together and drowns opponents with volume grappling
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18 wins (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Technical striker with creative offense and excellent footwork
- Dangerous at range but can be grounded by elite wrestlers
DFS Perspective: Dvalishvili's relentless takedown style always makes him a DFS goldmine, as his pace racks up points even without a finish. Sandhagen has the striking and movement to punish entries, but stopping Merab's pressure over five rounds is a tall task. The lean is Dvalishvili by grinding decision with massive DFS volume, while Sandhagen is the contrarian GPP play with knockout potential if he finds space.
UFC 320 Pick: Dvalishvili
Jiri Prochazka (31-5-1) v. Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-6-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 31 wins (27 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Former UFC light heavyweight champion with unorthodox striking
- Wildly aggressive but durable with fight-ending power
Khalil Rountree Jr.
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (0 KO/TKO, 5 decisions)
- Explosive power striker with sharp southpaw weapons
- Dangerous early but has shown durability concerns
DFS Perspective: This fight screams volatility and finishing upside. Prochazka's chaos and power make him a high-ceiling play, but his defensive lapses always leave him open to being clipped. Rountree is live for a knockout, especially early, but Prochazka's durability and output make him the preferred DFS side. This matchup is a strong GPP target with fight-ending potential from either man.
UFC 320 Pick: Prochazka
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Josh Emmett (19-5-0) v. Youssef Zalal (17-5-1)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Explosive power puncher with a dangerous right hand
- Durable but has slowed slightly with age and damage taken
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17 wins (4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with strong movement and grappling transitions
- Can be low-output at times, relying on control and volume over power
DFS Perspective: Emmett's one-punch power always makes him live for an early knockout and high DFS ceiling, but his durability and pace are trending downward. Zalal's youth, movement and grappling edge give him more consistent scoring paths if he survives early danger. The preferred DFS lean is Zalal as the steadier option, though Emmett remains a high-risk GPP dart with fight-ending power.
UFC 320 Pick: Zalal
Joe Pyfer (14-3-0) v. Abus Magomedov (28-6-1)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decision)
- Explosive boxer with heavy hands and finishing instincts
- Aggressive early but can slow if dragged into later rounds
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28 wins (14 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Versatile striker with solid grappling background
- Fast starter but has shown cardio issues in extended fights
DFS Perspective: Both men are finishers, making this a strong GPP target. Pyfer's power and aggression give him the edge as the more consistent threat to close the show early. Magomedov is live as an underdog with his experience and striking diversity, but his cardio questions make him risky. The preferred DFS side is Pyfer for knockout upside.
UFC 320 Pick: Pyfer
Ateba Gautier (8-1-0) v. Tre'ston Vines (10-3-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 8 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Explosive power striker with fast finishes on his record
- Aggressive style that overwhelms less durable opponents
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Balanced fighter with experience and toughness
- Can be hit often and struggles against heavy pressure
DFS Perspective: Gautier has the clear edge with his athleticism, explosiveness and knockout power. Unless Vines can drag this into deeper waters, he's at major risk of getting finished early. Gautier is the preferred DFS side with big upside, making him one of the stronger plays on the slate.
UFC 320 Pick: Gautier
Edmen Shahbazyan (15-5-0) v. Andre Muniz (24-7-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (12 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decision)
- Explosive striker with sharp boxing and knockout power
- Struggles when pressured and forced into grappling exchanges
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 24 wins (4 KO/TKO, 15 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Elite grappler with dangerous submissions, especially armbars
- Questionable durability on the feet, but thrives on the ground
DFS Perspective: Muniz is a great underdog target. If he can avoid Shahbazyan's early power and close the distance, his grappling gives him a clear path to victory. Shahbazyan has the knockout upside, but his defensive grappling issues make him risky. My preferred DFS lean is Muniz, who could dominate on the mat and score huge if he gets the fight to the ground.
UFC 320 Pick: Muniz
Farid Basharat (13-0-0) v. Chris Gutierrez (22-5-2)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (1 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with slick grappling and strong control game
- Technical and composed, but not a big finishing threat on the feet
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 12 decisions)
- Dangerous kicker with solid volume striking and durability
- Can be out-grappled and controlled by strong wrestlers
DFS Perspective: Basharat's grappling gives him a clear path to rack up points through takedowns and control time, making him the safer DFS play. Gutiérrez has striking volume and leg kicks to keep this competitive, but his lack of finishing upside and grappling defense limits his ceiling. My lean is Basharat by control-heavy decision, though Gutiérrez is a contrarian dart for a striking-heavy upset.
UFC 320 Pick: Basharat
Daniel Santos (12-2-0) v. Joo Sang Yoo (9-0-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Wild, aggressive striker who pushes a relentless pace
- Durable but hittable, often turns fights into brawls
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (4 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Crisp striker with solid technique and timing
- Less proven against top competition but dangerous in exchanges
DFS Perspective: This fight should deliver action with high finishing potential. Santos' reckless pace makes him a strong DFS target with upside, but his defensive holes always leave him vulnerable. Yoo is the cleaner striker and could capitalize if he keeps his composure, making him a sneaky GPP play. My slight lean is to Santos for chaos and pressure, but both sides are very live for DFS.
UFC 320 Pick: Santos
Macy Chiasson (10-4-0) v. Yana Santos (16-8-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Big for the division with physical clinch and grappling strength
- Can be inconsistent but dangerous when aggressive and pressuring
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Veteran striker who mixes in clinch work and toughness
- Struggles against stronger grapplers and higher-paced opponents
DFS Perspective: Chiasson has the size, strength and grappling to control this fight if she stays aggressive, giving her a higher DFS ceiling. Santos is durable and experienced, but her path to victory likely involves dragging this into a slow-paced decision, which limits scoring. The preferred DFS lean is Chiasson, who has the tools to dominate physically and secure a finish or high-control win.
UFC 320 Pick: Chiasson
Patchy Mix (20-2-0) v. Jakub Wiklacz (16-3-2)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20 wins (2 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Elite grappler with slick back takes and submission finishing ability
- Long, rangy bantamweight who controls distance well and hunts the mat
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (10 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Submission-heavy fighter with strong grappling transitions
- Less proven against top-tier opposition, but thrives in scrambles
DFS Perspective: This is a grappler's delight, but Mix is the more complete and battle-tested fighter. His length, experience and finishing instincts make him the clear DFS side with submission upside. Wiklacz is crafty on the mat but unlikely to outwork Mix over three rounds. It's a strong lean toward Mix as a core DFS play with elite grappling scoring potential.
UFC 320 Pick: Mix
Punahele Soriano (11-4-0) v. Nikolay Veretnnikov (13-6-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decision)
- Explosive power puncher with aggressive forward pressure
- Struggles with cardio if forced into later rounds
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (9 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with clean boxing and grappling balance
- Durable and steady, able to extend fights and test opponents' gas tanks
DFS Perspective: Soriano is a strong GPP play with his knockout power, especially early, but his cardio makes him risky if he doesn't land quickly. Veretnikov has the tools to weather the storm, push pace and take over late, giving him sneaky underdog appeal. Lean is Soriano for the early finish, but Veretennikov is a live DFS pivot for those banking on a grind.
UFC 320 Pick: Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj (12-5-0) v. Austin Vanderford (13-2-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (1 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Experienced grappler with excellent submission setups
- Dangerous in scrambles and thrives when the fight hits the mat
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Strong wrestler with physical top control
- Limited striking and can leave openings for submissions
DFS Perspective: Vanderford has the wrestling to secure takedowns, but Brahimaj's submission game is slicker and more dangerous. If Vanderford gets sloppy on entries or leaves his neck exposed, Brahimaj has the experience to capitalize. As a DFS play, Brahimaj offers strong underdog value with finishing upside, making him the preferred side.
UFC 320 Pick: Brahimaj
Veronica Hardy (9-5-1) v. Brogan Walker (7-4-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 9 wins (1 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Technical striker with improving grappling defense
- Veteran presence, composed under pressure, but low finishing rate
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 7 wins (1 submission, 6 decisions)
- Gritty fighter with steady volume and toughness
- Relies on durability and output more than fight-ending weapons
DFS Perspective: This projects as a lower-scoring fight with limited finishing upside. Hardy has the technical edge and experience to control exchanges, making her the safer DFS side. Walker is durable and could extend the fight, but her lack of finishing ability caps her ceiling. My lean is Hardy by decision, though this is a lower-priority DFS target.
UFC 320 Pick: Hardy
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
