This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Brazil on Saturday, Nov. 4 for UFC Sao Paulo. The main event features Jailton Almeida taking on Derrick Lewis at heavyweight.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (10-5)
On the main card of UFC Sao Paulo, a heavyweight bout between Rodrigo Nascimento and Don'Tale Mayes goes down, and I'm backing Nascimento to get the win. This is actually a rematch, as the two fought in May of 2020, and Nascimento won by second-round submission in a one-sided fight.
In their first fight, Nascimento went 2-for-2 on takedowns and had 2:23 of control time, while he also out-struck Mayes 45-to-42. Mayes' ground game is a problem, as he has a takedown defense of just 56 percent, which will likely again be an issue against Nascimento.
Nascimento should outwrestle Mayes here and likely get another submission win. To me, he should be above -225, so to get him at -185 is a good price.
UFC Sao Paulo Best Bet: Rodrigo Nascimento (-185)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Angela Hill (15-13) vs. Denise Gomes (8-2)
For my underdog, I'm backing Angela Hill here, as her experience should give her the edge.
Gomes is 2-1 in the UFC and coming off a 20-second knockout win over Yazmin Jauregui back in July -- a fight she was a big underdog in. She's now a favorite over Hill, who has been fighting the very best of the strawweight division and been competitive against them.
In her debut, Gomes was taken down four times by Loma Lookboonmee, who is a striker, and Gomes hasn't been able to show off her takedown defense since then. Hill is also extremely durable, so I expect the veteran to take over in the second and third rounds.
We saw Hill fight Amanda Lemos to a split decision, as I like Hill to use her pace and volume to tire out Gomes, while also mixing in takedowns to edge out a decision.
UFC Sao Paulo Best Bet: Angela Hill (+105)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida (19-2) vs. Derrick Lewis (27-11)
Jailton Almeida is a -485 favorite, but I like a prop to take him down to -125 at UFC Sao Paulo against Derrick Lewis.
Lewis took this fight on about a month's notice. On paper, this is a terrible stylistic matchup for him. The way to beat Lewis is to grapple him and hold him down, as we saw Sergey Spivac do.
Almeida is relentless with his takedowns and cardio, as the Brazilian should be able to take Lewis down early and find a submission victory. Almeida has won 12 of his 19 fights by submission, including three of his five wins in the UFC.
I expect Almeida to get on Lewis' back and sink in a rear-naked choke in the first round.
UFC Sao Paulo Best Bet: Jailton Almeida by submission (-125)
Weight Classes: Bantamweight & Middleweight
Daniel Marcos (15-0) vs. Victor Hugo (24-4)
Caio Borralho (14-1) vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-5-1)
For my parlay at UFC Sao Paulo, I'm taking Daniel Marcos and Caio Borralho to get their hands raised.
Marcos is going into enemy territory to face Hugo, who is a finisher but someone who will have problems here. Marcos is a great striker who also has solid takedown defense, so I expect him to be able to keep it standing. On the feet, Marcos should be able to piece up Hugo. I also worry about the Brazilian's cardio and striking defense, as I expect Marcos to win a decision.
In the other leg, I like Caio Borralho to remain undefeated in the UFC and hand Abus Magomedov his second straight loss. Magomedov KO'd Dustin Stolztfus in 19 seconds and had a ton of hype behind him, but he was then finished in the second round against Sean Strickland.
Magomedov's cardio is a major worry, as he faded in the first round against Strickland. Borralho, meanwhile, likes to push the pace and will mix in the grappling to tire out Magomedov. Borralho should dominate this fight on the ground and eventually submit Magomedov here.
Prediction: Daniel Marcos & Caio Borralho parlay (-111)
UFC Sao Paulo Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Sao Paulo bets:
- Rodrigo Nascimento (-185)
- Angela Hill (+105)
- Jailton Almeida by submission (-125)
- Daniel Marcos & Caio Borralho parlay (-111)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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