This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
This weekend, the UFC goes to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the first time in promotional history. In the main event, former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker takes on Ikram Aliskerov.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Middleweight
Robert Whittaker (25-7) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (15-1)
Robert Whittaker was initially supposed to fight Khamzat Chimaev, but Chimaev was forced out due to illness. Ikram Aliskerov, who was scheduled to fight last weekend, stepped up on short notice.
Although Aliskerov is 2-0 in the UFC with two knockout wins, I'm shocked Whittaker isn't above a (-200) favorite, which makes him a play here.
Aliskerov knocked out Warlley Alves, who is a career welterweight and Phil Hawes, who is known to have chin issues. Even before he knocked them out, his opponents had some success. Whittaker, meanwhile, has only been fighting the best of the best, and to me, Aliskerov is Round 1 KO or bust in this fight.
Whittaker has the five-round experience and only gets better as the fight goes on. The former champ should be able to take over after the first round and get a stoppage win as Aliskerov fades in the later rounds.
UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bet: Robert Whittaker (-155)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Felipe Lima (12-1) vs. Muhammadjon Naimov (11-2)
UFC Saudi Arabia is a chalk-heavy card, and after Volkan Oezdemir turned into the favorite, the only other underdog I like is Felipe Lima.
Lima is the former Oktagon Champion and should have been in the UFC already. There is some concern that he is taking this fight on a week's notice, but Naimov isn't one to push an extreme pace anyway, and the Brazilian is used to fighting five rounds.
Lima will be the much faster striker, and he should be able to avoid the power of Naimov in the first round before utilizing his wrestling and speed to edge out a decision here. This will be a close fight, and in a coin-flip, give me the underdog to pull out the win.
UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bet: Felipe Lima (+110)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Kelvin Gastelum (18-9) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (17-4)
Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez have both struggled as of late, but both are all-action fighters.
I like Gastelum to win this fight, but (-245) is a bit steep, so I'm taking Gastelum to win by decision at +100. The former UFC interim title challenger should be able to land on Rodriguez, who absorbs 5.28 significant strikes per minute, while Gastelum is also the better wrestler if he needs to go to that.
Ultimately, Gastelum is the better striker and will be able to piece up Rodriguez for 15 minutes to win a decision. In Gastelum's last three wins, all three were by decision, and I don't think he has the power to put away Rodriguez.
UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bet: Kelvin Gastelum by decision (+100)
Weight Classes: Middleweight & Lightweight
Sharaputdin Magomedov (12-0) vs. Joilton Lutterbach (38-10)
Nasrat Haqparast (16-5) vs. Jared Gordon (20-6)
For my parlay at UFC Saudi Arabia, I'm backing Sharaputdin Magomedov and Nasrat Haqparast to get their hands raised Saturday.
Magomedov takes on Joilton Lutterbach, who is stepping up on short notice. Although he has 48 professional fights, he will struggle with Magomedov's size. Lutterbach may best be known for fighting in the PFL tournament in 2021 when he fought at lightweight. He is now fighting at 185lbs -- 30lbs more in just three years. To me, he is a bloated up middleweight and not a natural one.
Magomedov should be able to piece up Lutterbach on the feet, as the Russian is a great striker. He'll likely get a TKO win, as I doubt Lutterbach will be able to take the power shots from a true middleweight.
In the other leg, I'm backing Haqparast to get the win over Gordon. Happarast has had his struggles, but he finally looks to be coming into his own. Gordon, meanwhile, is a solid test for any lightweight on the cusp of the top-15, but this is a bad matchup for him.
Haqparast has a 78 percent takedown defense, and Gordon's path to victory is using his wrestling to control the fight. On the feet, Haqparast is the better striker and should be able to land the better shots for 15 minutes to win a decision.
UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bet: Magomedov & Nasrat Haqparast parlay (-103)
UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Saudi Arabia best bets:
- Robert Whittaker (-155)
- Felipe Lima (+110)
- Kelvin Gastelum by decision (+100)
- Sharaputdin Magomedov & Nasrat Haqparast parlay (-103)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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