Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
UFC 319 features the strongest main card we've seen in some time, with both the main and co-main events featuring elite fighters. We'll take a look at every bout across three platforms, including a welterweight who is looking to steal some hype, and a veteran who will try to wrestle his way to victory. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Khamzat Chimaev ($8,900)
Dricus Du Plessis has been the bigger, stronger man in almost all of his UFC fights. This will not be the case against Chimaev, who has manhandled the majority of opponents en route to stoppage victories. "StillKnocks" will have a chance to take this fight over if it lasts longer than two rounds, but "Borz" has only been slowed down in the Octagon by credentialed wrestlers and grapplers, so physicality alone won't be enough to stem the tide. I expect Chimaev to take care of business early, but shares of Du Plessis are a must in case he extends the bout.
Aaron Pico ($8,200)
Pico's debut represents something UFC fans don't often see: a top prospect from another promotion climbing into the Octagon in their prime. The 28-year-old has been every bit as advertised since a few early setbacks, mixing explosive combination punching with wrestling and ferocious ground-and-pound. Lerone Murphy is good enough to compete everywhere, but tends to wait too long at range, which has gotten him hit hard in previous fights. I believe those who judge Pico based on the Bellator stars that came before him are making a mistake, as he has consistently shown us that he has the tools to be a champion.
Jessica Andrade ($7,800)
Lupita Godinez can be dominant when she gets her wrestling going, but the 31-year-old has struggled when she has had to rely on boxing. Andrade should have a significant strength advantage here, along with power that can stop Godinez in her tracks. I wouldn't be surprised if Andrade throws in a bit of offensive wrestling, as Godinez has been taken down four times in her last two fights.
Chase Hooper ($9,300)
It's curious to me that Hooper is still drawing unranked opponents. The 25-year-old has been dominant during his five-fight winning streak and should be put in a position to move up the ladder. This will hopefully come with a win over Alexander Hernandez, who is a fast, powerful wrestler but has had trouble staying consistent over three full rounds. Hooper's striking is beginning to catch up with his phenomenal grappling, which should mean another comfortable victory.
Tim Elliott ($7,000)
Elliott will look for his takedowns from the opening bell, making him a nice play against most opponents at this price. This is particularly the case for Kai Asakura, whose upright posture leaves him vulnerable to fighters getting in on his hips. The Japanese fighter hits hard and is known for his dynamic offense, but Elliott has only been knocked out once in 33 professional fights, which should give him a fairly safe floor here.
Karine Silva ($8,800)
Silva tasted her first defeat in the Octagon in November, when Viviane Araujo's movement proved too tricky for "Killer." There should be no such issues against Dione Barbosa, who stands flatfooted in the pocket looking to throw big strikes and get takedowns. I expect Silva to march her opponent down and land the better shots here. While it is true that Silva has never defended a takedown in her UFC career, Barbosa's game is too one-note to trouble an athlete who is so well-rounded.
Alibi Idiris ($TBD)
Idiris could be one to watch. The Kazakh fighter is fast, even among flyweights. He also possesses knockout power and the ability to grapple. Back for his second bite at the apple in the UFC, Joseph Morales is a strong pressure fighter who can put his combinations together. However, I would be surprised if the debutante wasn't better than him everywhere the fight goes.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Michael Page UNDER 53.5 Significant Strikes, Nursulton Ruziboev UNDER 30.5 Significant Strikes, and Edson Barboza OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes
The fact that Page has yet to exceed this line in three fights is unsurprising. "MVP" plays an extremely defensive game in the cage, sitting behind an awkward frame and daring his opponents to step into range. One might imagine that Jared Cannonier's pressure-first style would work to up this total, but we have seen aggressive fighters confused in front of Page before, and it's just as likely that closing the distance will lead to an early knockout here.
Ruziboev is so tall that most fighters need to lean on a wrestling game to find their offense. Bryan Battle should be no different, as he will give up four inches of height to "Black." This should help keep totals low, as will the lingering threat of a knockout when Battle gets close.
Drakkar Klose is not the kind of wrestler who will chase takedowns for 15 minutes. This being the case, it's hard not to predict a striking match between him and Barbosa where each man lands hard shots from range. "Junior" is live for a knockout here, but Klose has shown himself to be tough during his UFC career and should hang on to hear the final bell.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Michal Oleksiejczuk Wins via KO/TKO (+100)
I'm betting that the explosivity of "Lord" will be far too much for Gerald Meerschaert, who takes his time and works his way into fights. While Oleksiejczuk has been submitted in the recent past, "GM3" sports just a 31 percent takedown accuracy rate, which means he will likely spend a lot of time in space with his chin exposed.
Geoff Neal Wins via KO/TKO (+400)
These are the kinds of juiced lines primed for taking shots at, as Carlos Prates will face the most dangerous test of his young career in Neal. This will be an entirely new challenge for "The Nightmare" as Neal will use his speed, pressure, and tricky striking to put him in tough spots. Prates can stop "Handz Of Steel" dead in his tracks, but Neal is a tough out, and the Brazilian can be too reliant on finding the perfect shot.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 319 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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