Bank of America Roval 400 Preview: Playoff Road Race

We've reached the cut for the second round in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. This weekend's event at Charlotte Motor Speedway is race number six of 10 in the playoff format which crowns the NASCAR Cup Series champion. This event signals the end of the Round of 12 as four drivers will be eliminated from the field of playoff drivers after this race. 

For this very crucial race NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway offer the eighth annual road course race at the North Carolina oval. Seven seasons ago the owners of Charlotte Motor Speedway constructed a 2.28-mile, 17-turn road course that incorporates most of the 1.5-mile oval and additional twists and turns on the infield for what the track calls a "roval" course. The configuration and type are very similar to the road course that Daytona International Speedway uses for IMSA. This relatively new wrinkle in the playoff lineup of tracks will be a real curveball for the drivers this weekend, as most are out of their comfort zone on a road course as opposed to a true oval. 

The fact that most of the field raced on the Roval the last seven seasons will help with some familiarity, but it's still a major departure from the weekly NASCAR track. When we add the newness of this event and course with the fact that it's a "cut race" in the playoffs, the pressure to finish well will be enormous. Those drivers that don't find bad luck, or don't crack under the pressure will move on in NASCAR post-season.   

Since this is just the eighth race at a new NASCAR course, we have very little in the way of historical data to examine. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely unarmed with numbers. We do have the loop data from the last seven seasons at the Charlotte Roval. Those numbers along with the historically strong road course drivers will form the backbone of our fantasy racing picks this weekend. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from last seven Bank of America Roval 400's, sorted by driver rating.

Since we're running just our eighth race on the Roval, we're going to be somewhat light on historical records this weekend. We have seven races to examine, and that data while helpful can't be the entirety of our analysis. The road course at Charlotte will continue carving out its reputation and history this weekend. If we look back on last season's Bank of America Roval 400, we saw a dominant performance by Kyle Larson to win his second-career victory at the Roval. He would lead 62 of the 109 laps and run away from Christopher Bell by 1.5-seconds to secure the win down the stretch in that race. Larson became the second two-time winner at the Roval and thanks to the specialty of road course racing, we could have another repeat winner at the track this Sunday afternoon. 

In addition to the last seven races on the Roval, we're going to rely heavily on the road course statistics of 2025. NASCAR will be staging their sixth and final race of the season on a road course this weekend. When we combine that much road course action with the drivers who have succeeded doing it, this becomes some of the most important data we can examine for this race. With so many unknowns, there are sure to be some surprises and even some bad days for some of the NASCAR stars. We won't be surprised by anything we see this Sunday in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. So, fasten your seat belts and get ready for some excitement, as NASCAR throws a major curveball at the competitors for this sixth race of the NASCAR playoffs. The following are our picks for fantasy racing success at the Charlotte Roval.   

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Shane van Gisbergen – He's won on just about every track that isn't an oval in 2025. Van Gisbergen has racked up four victories at Mexico City, the Chicago Street Course, Sonoma and Watkins Glen. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has become the road racing driver to beat at present. Coming off a strong 10th-place finish at the Kansas oval, he'll look to carry that momentum into the Roval this weekend. Van Gisbergen made his one and only Cup Series start at the Charlotte road track last season and grabbed the pole position, led 21 laps and eventually finished a respectable seventh-place in his first look at this facility. He also raced in the Xfinity Series event at the Roval last season, earning the pole and strong third-place finish. Van Gisbergen will be the driver to beat this Sunday.  

Christopher Bell – With playoff advancement hopes still very much alive and well after Kansas, Bell comes to the Charlotte Roval looking to extend his 2025 playoff drive into the Round of 8. Fortunately for the No. 20 Toyota team, this young driver has some road racing skill. Bell won this event three years ago and finished an impressive runner-up in this event one year ago at the Charlotte road circuit. His two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in five starts works out to a strong 60-percent Top-10 rate and sharp 10.0 average finish. Bell has grabbed a win (COTA) and three runner-up finishes (Roval, Mexico City and Watkins Glen) in his last five road racing events. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver will factor in the outcome Sunday in the Bank of America Roval 400.  

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has always been a top performer in road racing, and that success has translated reasonably well into the new Next-Gen car. This season hasn't been as good as recent campaigns, but his last start was a decent 11th-place finish at Watkins Glen. He is prone to the occasional mistake and bad finish, which pulls his average higher, but his homerun potential in this style of racing is unmistakable. The driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet won this event two seasons ago and has four Top-10 finishes in five-career Cup starts at the Charlotte Roval. In addition, he's grabbed four-straight victories in five Xfinity Series starts on the Roval between 2019 and 2022. Allmendinger finished runner-up in last year's Roval Xfinity event. That type of domination shows his comfort level with this circuit.  Allmendinger knows this facility like the back of his hand and should have a very high ceiling for the Bank of America Roval 400.  

Chase Elliott – While he's been winless on the road racing circuit for a while now, Elliott cannot be discounted going into this weekend's race on the Roval. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a seven-time winner on NASCAR road courses and he's a two-time winner of this event. Elliott's 109 laps led at the Charlotte road circuit is second only to Kyle Larson and his 71-percent Top-10 rate here is nothing to overlook. His last win on a similar track was at Road America way back in 2021, but we cannot put a lot into that statistic. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a very skilled driver at this form of racing and has generally been a Top-5 finisher this season on the road circuits. Elliott also finished fifth-place in this event one year ago, which lowered his Roval average finish to a sharp 7.7.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been arguably the most consistent performer on road circuits the last two plus seasons and since the introduction of the new generation car. Buescher has logged one win, three Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes across the last 10 road racing events to post an impeccable 7.9 average finish in this style of racing. That coincides nicely with his numbers at the Charlotte Roval. Buescher has earned three Top 10's in his last four starts at this challenging course. That has pushed his Top-10 rate at the Roval to 43-percent and 12.6 average finish. The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang should put his skills on display again in this sixth race of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports star has been incredibly successful the last two plus seasons on the road circuits. Byron has earned two victories and two runner-up finishes along with a stellar 80-percent Top-10 rate on these style tracks. He has a pole position, one runner-up and four Top 10's on the road circuits in 2025 alone. In Byron's seven starts at the Charlotte Roval he's captured a pole position, outside pole, grabbed 80 laps led and collected four Top-10 finishes (57-percent). Considering that the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet finished third-place in this event one year ago and the playoff implications of this race, it wouldn't be at all shocking to see Byron swing for the fences Sunday on the Charlotte Roval.   

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is in a reasonably good points position coming to Charlotte this week and has that Loudon victory of a couple weeks ago guaranteeing him a spot in the Round of 8. The Penske Racing star won the first-ever race on the Roval in 2018 and has been a very consistent performer here ever since. Blaney boasts 46-laps led, one win, two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his seven starts at the Charlotte road course. That equates to a strong 10.1 average finish that even rivals Chase Elliott's stats at the Roval. Blaney and the No. 12 Ford team have been decent road circuit performers this season. He finished 10th-place in this event one year ago and he won the pole and grabbed sixth-place at Watkins Glen very recently. This is probably Blaney's favorite road course, so we should see him battling among the leaders Sunday afternoon.          

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe doesn't have stellar Roval stats in his resume. With just one Top-10 finish in four starts he only carries a 25-percent Top-10 rate and 23.8 average finish at the Charlotte facility into this Sunday's race. However, Briscoe has really elevated his game on the winding circuits since his move to Joe Gibbs Racing this season. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has earned 14th-, seventh-, second- and fifth-place finishes at COTA, Mexico City, Sonoma and Watkins Glen. That works out to a strong 7.0 average finish this season on these style tracks. That's very difficult to ignore heading into this important playoff race of the Bank of America Roval 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Charlotte & solid upside

Kyle Larson – Larson's victory in this event four years ago sort of come out of the blue. He had led a number of laps in prior starts but just had never put it all together to challenge for the win at the Roval. Larson solved that puzzle in the 2021 battle at Charlotte. He returned to the track last season and picked up his second Roval win in a more dominant performance. Larson has been inconsistent on the winding tracks this season so we're downgrading him to the sleepers list this week. Despite being an up-and-down performer on the road circuits, he brings Top-10 potential to most of these style tracks. We have to respect the homerun potential of the No. 5 Chevrolet team in the Bank of America Roval 400.

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Penske Racing Ford is a bit of a hit-or-miss road course performer. Over Logano's past 10 starts he has a 40-percent Top-10 rate and 13.8 average finish. His last outing was a reasonable 14th-place finish at Watkins Glen. As to the Charlotte Roval, Logano has been exceptional here in his starts and that makes him sleeper worthy from a fantasy standpoint this Sunday. The veteran driver has one pole at the track, two Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes (86-percent) for a robust 8.6 average finish. In this event one year ago, he drove the team's Ford Mustang to a solid 8th-place finish in the Bank of America Roval 400.   

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is in precarious position for advancement in the NASCAR playoffs coming to Charlotte this week. The 23XI Racing youngster comes to the Charlotte Roval this weekend looking for his fourth-career road course victory. Reddick snagged a pole position and third-place at COTA earlier this season and he's racked up three Top-10 finishes in the four road racing events to-date in 2025. The No. 45 Toyota team really has this style of racing pegged in the new generation stock car. Reddick finished runner-up in this event four years ago and has three Top 10's in his five-career starts at the Charlotte Roval (60-percent) with strong 7.8 average finish. With playoff advancement hanging in the balance, we're willing to bet we see Reddick on his "A" game this Sunday afternoon.

Alex Bowman – Another streaky driver this season has been Bowman and his No. 48 team. The road racing circuit has yielded two Top-10 finishes in 2025 but has lacked the consistency to be a completely reliable fantasy racing play. However, in Bowman's favor, he has been a top performer thus far at the Charlotte Roval. His six prior starts at the track have claimed two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a sound 11.7 average finish. The Roval is a different animal than most road courses, and it's not unusual to see certain drivers to excel at racing here as opposed to more traditional road circuits. We believe that is the case with Bowman. He is a track specific fantasy play for Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400.     

Bubba Wallace – After some early struggles to adapt at this new facility, Wallace has figured it out a good bit in his last three starts. The 23XI Racing driver has a pair of Top 10's in those efforts with his last being a ninth-place finish in this event one year ago. Road Racing has never really been Wallace's strong suit but the Roval is just peculiar enough to not be considered an ordinary road circuit. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has been somewhat improved in his road racing in 2025. Wallace earned a steady 12th-place at Mexico City and recently registered a strong eighth-place at Watkins Glen. This aspect of his game is improving and the Charlotte Roval seems to play to his strengths. It's a good combination for a driver very much in need of playoff points.  

Michael McDowell – McDowell's recent steady performance will get even more of a lift with the Charlotte Roval this weekend. The Spire Motorsports veteran has been a good performer on the road circuits over his career and the last two season's he's stacked some good accomplishments. McDowell has nabbed one runner-up, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last seven road racing events. Two of those Top 5's have come this season alone at Mexico City and Sonoma. McDowell has never been a top performer at the Charlotte Roval, but he appears poised to challenge the Top 10 considering he finished 15th-place in this event one year ago.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – Road course racing really has never been Keselowski's cup of tea, short of some good performances at Watkins Glen. As an example, he's not cracked the Top 10 once in the last two seasons on the road racing circuit and his average finish stands at a subpar 21.0. Keselowski's seven-career starts on the Charlotte Roval have netted only one Top-10 finish (2019) and works out to an 18.4 average finish. This is clearly a weekend to lower your expectations for the No. 6 Ford team. Keselowski is better deployed on the intermediate and small ovals that remain in the schedule.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The four-time Cup Series winner will have his work cutout for him in Charlotte. While all of Stenhouse's career victories and top performances have come on superspeedways, the same cannot be said for his performance on road circuits. The HYAK Motorsports veteran's seven-career Charlotte Roval starts have netted no Top-15 finishes and a lowly 23.0 average finish. In this event one year ago Stenhouse drove to his best-ever Roval finish of merely 16th-place. His last two seasons of road course racing have only seen two Top-20 finishes (25-percent) and a disappointing 25.3 average finish. Stenhouse and the No. 47 Chevrolet team are not on the fantasy radar for the Bank of America Roval 400.  

Daniel Suarez – It could be another very tough weekend for the Trackhouse Racing veteran. Suarez does have a surprising seventh-place performance at Watkins Glen this season to his credit, but that has been an outlier. His other road racing performances of the last two seasons are mainly finishes outside the Top 20 for a poor 21.9 average finish. Suarez has made seven-career starts at the Charlotte Roval with just one Top-15 finish and an inflated 27.4 average finish. His road racing performance has been off this season and his track specific history is not encouraging. We believe Suarez and the No. 99 Chevrolet team are not a good fantasy racing candidate for Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400.   

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been a consistent road course performer the last two years. Despite a victory in the past at Watkins Glen and good performances there over the years, Hamlin has only managed just a 21.6 average finish thus far on the winding circuits for the last 10 events. However, the playoffs are well underway and Hamlin still has a very good chance of advancing. Still, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota's seven prior starts at the Charlotte Roval have netted just one Top 10 vs. two finishes outside the Top 15. The average finish is coming in around 16.4 which is higher than we like to see. Hamlin is an "A" tier driver that likely deserves benching this weekend.