Cook Out Southern 500
Location: Darlington, S.C.
Course: Darlington Raceway
Format: 1.37-mile oval
Laps: 367
Cook Out Southern 500 Preview
There are varying opinions about the playoffs, but starting the postseason off with a Crown Jewel race is difficult to argue with. This is the first of three races in Round 1, after which the bottom four drivers in playoff points will be eliminated from championship contention. As things currently stand, those four drivers would be Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick and Josh Berry. All four of those names are relatively surprising, as most wouldn't have predicted Berry or Dillon to be in the field, while most would have predicted Bowman and particularly Reddick to have more regular-season success. A few well-timed wins will go a long way to making people forget about preseason expectations even more than they already have.
Key Stats at Darlington Raceway
- Number of races: 128
- Winners from pole: 21
- Winners from top-5 starters: 77
- Winners from top-10 starters: 107
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 6
Previous 10 Darlington Winners
2025 spring – Denny Hamlin
2024 fall - Chase Briscoe
2024 spring - Brad Keselowski
2023 fall - Kyle Larson
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Erik Jones
2022 spring - Joey Logano
2021 fall - Denny Hamlin
2021 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2020 fall - Kevin Harvick
Darlington Raceway, also known as the Lady in Black, is a historic track in Cup history and is also considered one of the toughest tracks of the year. Its irregular egg shape and varied banking make car setup decisions difficult, while the abrasive track surface increases tire wear. Finally, the high line is typically preferred, so contact with the wall is also relatively common. Expect a decent amount of attrition Sunday night.
Solid qualifying and good track position will always be the preference, but there is plenty of track record of drivers moving up through the field to take the checkered flag. Six of the last 17 winners have qualified 13th or worse.
RotoWire NASCAR Cup Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Cook Out Southern 500 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
William Byron - $10,700
Kyle Larson - $10,500
Christopher Bell - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Tyler Reddick - $9,700
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Joey Logano - $9,000
Ross Chastain - $8,700
Bubba Wallace - $8,500
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Chris Buescher - $8,300
Kyle Busch - $8,000
Brad Keselowski - $7,600
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Ryan Preece - $7,100
Ty Gibbs - $6,900
Todd Gilliland - $5,600
Justin Haley - $5,400
NASCAR Cup Series DFS Picks for the Cook Out Southern 500
William Byron - $10,700
Tyler Reddick - $9,700
Chase Elliott- $9,500
Brad Keselowski - $7,600
Ty Gibbs - $6,900
Todd Gilliland - $5,600
As the tiers make clear, this is a track where the best drivers typically excel. In the next gen era, three drivers have led over 300 laps at Darington: Larson, Byron and Reddick. We've seen clutch performances from Reddick in the past, and this one has the feel of setting up well for him. He is known for being comfortable on high lines, as he also excels at Homestead. It has to be noted that he had one of the most disappointing regular seasons of any driver in the field, but that can all change quickly. Byron is known for his steadiness and has the lowest average finish of the entire field at Darlington in the next gen era. Bell and Larson are a similar given their boom or bust nature.
All three RFK drivers stand out positively in the middle tiers of pricing. Keselowski has won at Darlington as recently as the spring of 2024, and he has top-10 stage finishes in each of the last two editions despite getting a poor end result. Buescher has never won at Darlington but has finished inside the top-six in three of the last four races at the track and qualified third in the other. Preece qualified second for the spring race and finished the first stage in third.
There are some decent punt options. Gibbs rivaled Reddick for the biggest letdown in the regular season, but he's qualified inside the top 13 in each of the last three races and tallied points in five of the six stages in that span. That's all not to mention that he's finished second and ninth in that span.
Gilliland is a steady option at Darlington, finishing between 14th and 17th in his last three races at the track. He also pops as the top value on our optimizer.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Picks for the Cook Out Southern 500
Race Winner: Tyler Reddick (+850)
Top-five finish: Denny Hamlin (-110)
Top-10 finish: Brad Keselowski (+110), Chris Buescher (-105)
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Ross Chastain (+110) vs. Ryan Blaney (-150)
William Byron (-115) vs. Kyle Larson (-115)
The elite driver at Darlington we haven't discussed much at all is Hamlin. His qualifying and finish history is littered with top-five positions. It's tough to take that short of odds on a relatively unlikely event, but he's as close to a certainty to get a good result this weekend as there is in the field.
Top-10 finishers has more palatable odds, and this is a good way to get exposure to the top RFK drivers.
There are a few head-to-head matchups worth discussing. Blaney hasn't had much surface-level success at Darlington. His prowess on intermediate tracks means he shouldn't be ruled out from a win or otherwise excellent finish, he's priced among drivers who have achieved elite results at the track and that can be taken advantage of. Chastain has very similar results to Blaney at Darlington. Even conceding those results don't tell the full story, Chastain is good value.
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