NASCAR DFS: Ambetter 301

NASCAR DFS: Ambetter 301

This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.

Ambetter 301

Location: Loudon, N.H.
Course: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Format: 1.06-mile oval
Laps: 301

NASCAR Ambetter 301 Race Preview

Chase Elliott got a home track win last week at Atlanta, becoming the first three-race winner this season. Elliott's progress since the recent off week puts him in commanding position in the playoffs with just seven regular season races remaining. Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell occupy the last three playoff spots available for nonwinners, with Kevin Harvick on the outside looking in. Fantasy players will remember that New Hampshire Motor Speedway threw out a surprise winner in Aric Almirola last season, however. That means nothing is guaranteed, and drivers are anxious to make a trip to Victory Lane to help keep their championship hopes alive. This week's Ambetter 301 will be the 51st time the NASCAR Cup Series has raced at the track, and there have been 25 different winners in that time. In an unpredictable season this week's trip to the Northeast could be another twist in the championship story.

Key Stats at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

  • Number of races: 50
  • Winners from pole: 6
  • Winners from top-5 starters: 14
  • Winners from top-10 starters: 26
  • Winners from 21st or lower starters: 10
  • Fastest race: 117.134 mph

Previous 10 New Hampshire Winners

2021 - Aric Almirola
2020 - Brad Keselowski
2019 - Kevin Harvick
2018 - Kevin Harvick
2017 fall - Kyle Busch
2017 spring - Denny Hamlin
2016 fall - Kevin Harvick
2016 spring - Matt Kenseth
2015 fall - Matt Kenseth
2015 spring - Kyle Busch

New Hampshire's 1.0-mile oval features long straights and tight corners, which makes the track race a bit more like a short track than other 1.0-mile ovals on the schedule. The tracks straights are long and require heavy braking into the relatively flat turns, which can then beat up tires. However, even with the tight turns, drivers can alter their lines due to the progressive banking. Mechanical grip and being able to carry speed through the turns without destroying the tires will be important, though. While most New Hampshire winners have started inside the top 10, the track does have a tendency to produce winners from deeper in the field. Aric Almirola started 22nd in last year's race to win, and the new 2022 car could produce another unexpected victor. Ford and Toyota have won the last six races at the track, but Chevrolet is the engine that seems to have the upper hand right now.

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DraftKings Value Picks for the Ambetter 301 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values  

Kyle Busch - $11,000
Joey Logano - $10,800
Denny Hamlin - $10,600
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,400

DraftKings Tier 2 Values  

Ross Chastain - $9,800
Kyle Larson - $9,600
William Byron - $9,400
Christopher Bell - $9,100

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Kevin Harvick - $8,800
Tyler Reddick - $8,600
Kurt Busch - $8,200
Aric Almirola - $8,100

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Daniel Suarez - $7,900
Alex Bowman - $7,800
Brad Keselowski - $6,900
Chris Buescher - $6,100

NASCAR DFS Picks for the Ambetter 301

Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Denny Hamlin - $10,600
Ross Chastain - $9,800
Kevin Harvick - $8,800
Bubba Wallace - $7,400
Erik Jones - $7,300
Chris Buescher - $6,100

Speed has been on Denny Hamlin's (DK $10,600, FD $12,000) side recently. If he can avoid the incidents that have ruined recent races for him, he should be in store for a top finish. He has three career victories at New Hampshire and hasn't finished lower than 15th there since 2014. Ross Chastain (DK $9,800, FD $11,500) will hope to avoid the same incidents that have bitten Hamlin. The pair have had their share of run-ins, and Chastain has been coming off the better of the two. Neither will want to ruin their race on Sunday, though. Chastain's best New Hampshire showing was last season when he led three laps and finished eighth despite starting 20th. Four-time New Hampshire winner Kevin Harvick (DK $8,800, FD $8,200) is still looking for his first win of the season. This week's race might be his best shot at getting it, too. He won twice and finished fifth and sixth in his last four New Hampshire starts. Bubba Wallace (DK $7,400, FD $5,500) has returned to the fray with two top-15s in the last three races after a slump of three straight races outside of the top 25. He wouldn't normally be a driver fantasy players consider at New Hampshire, but this season's races at Dover and Martinsville suggest he could be in contention for his first top-15 at the track this week. Erik Jones (DK $7,300, FD $7,000) finished 19th in this race last season and has two top-10s at the track. With three finishes of 11th or better in the last five races, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him fighting for a top-10 this week, too. Another driver with upside potential this week is Chris Buescher (DK $6,100, FD $7,200) considering his speed on similar tracks this season. He has a previous New Hampshire best of 15th.

Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Kyle Larson - $9,600
William Byron - $9,400
Tyler Reddick - $8,600
Aric Almirola - $8,100
Daniel Suarez - $7,900
Austin Dillon - $6,300

Forgoing the more expensive options this week can yield a very stout lineup. Kyle Larson (DK $9,600, FD $10,500) comes at a discount compared to other weeks despite not losing much of his pace in recent weeks. He has never won at New Hampshire but does have four top-fives and six top-10s from 11 starts. He was seventh in last year's race. Teammate William Byron (DK $9,400, FD $10,000) should also be competitive. He has three top-15s from his four New Hampshire appearances, but will be one of the few drivers getting extra track time this week by pulling double-duty in the Xfinity Series. Tyler Reddick (DK $8,600, FD $8,500) has had an interesting week. Shortly after being confirmed by Richard Childress Racing for 2023, he was unveiled as a driver for 23XI in 2024. He also just recently made headlines for being another first-time winner this season. He was 10th and 13th in his two New Hampshire starts and will be aiming for his eighth top-10 of the season this week. Defending race winner Aric Almirola (DK $8,100, FD $7,800) may have been a surprise winner last season, but he has figured out how to be competitive each year at New Hampshire. He finished 11th or better, including last year's win, in the last four races there. This week should be another good one for Daniel Suarez (DK $7,900, FD $7,500), too. He has two top-10s and a win in the last five races and was ninth at Phoenix earlier this season, which should be a good representation of what to expect this week. After back-to-back finishes outside of the top 30, Austin Dillon (DK $6,300, FD $5,800) needs a turnaround this week. He has been a top-15 contender all season, though. He finished 13th and 17th in the last two New Hampshire races, which means ending that slump could be in the cards for him.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. C.J. Radune plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: cjradune, RaceDayScore: cjradune.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
C.J. Radune
Radune covers NASCAR, Formula 1 and soccer for RotoWire. He was named the Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association in 2012 and 2015.
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