Betting on Premier League: Gameweek 11

Betting on Premier League: Gameweek 11

This article is part of our Betting on Soccer series.

Continuing the trend of low-scoring matches, Gameweek 10 featured just 25 goals. While there will be weird matches like the Leicester City v. Fulham result, the trend of low-scoring matches will continue because that's the Premier League. There will be around 20 to 25 goals scored most gameweeks with a few outliers along the way, sometimes hitting 30 goals or even fewer than 20. 

The biggest issue I had last week was the 1-0 win by Leeds United at Everton. In addition to expecting there to be goals between the teams, I took Patrick Bamford to hit the back of the net. Unfortunately for the bet, he had six shots (two on target), but he wasn't the lone goal scorer. Equally upsetting were the 14 shots on goal between the teams if you took the over 2.5 goals at -157. The match went as expected, but both teams struggled to find the final product, which led to a 1-0 win. On another day, that match would've been 2-2 or 3-2. 

Weird results are something to chalk up as unlucky and not something to put into future bets. Fulham won at Leicester, but no one will be taking them to beat Manchester City this weekend unless you're big into the transitive property (Leicester beat Man City earlier this season).

LAST GAMEWEEK

It was an okay betting week for me, coming away close to even despite not hitting a parlay or Bamford to score. The Southampton v. Manchester United match went as expected and my bread-and-butter bet of both teams not scoring is now 3-0. I'll probably take that again somewhere this gameweek because it fits the under mold, but it also hits when a team like Man City win 5-0. 

THE WEEK AHEAD

I was set to back Newcastle for a second-straight week, but a COVID outbreak forced Friday's fixture to be postponed after Villa's win odds shot up to -165 early Tuesday.

I hate betting against top teams, but Manchester City feel like too big of a favorite against Fulham. It's possible they're being overrated after last weekend's easy win against Burnley, a team they've had annual success against. On the other side, Fulham are still being rated as the team that opened the season allowing 10 goals in their first three matches. However, as seen in the win against Leicester City, new additions have been massive boosts to the entire side, which is why they haven't lost by more than one goal in their last seven matches. Maybe that has to do with schedule, but they beat Leicester and won the possession battle in the prior match against Everton, a 3-2 loss.

This could blow up in my face in another 5-0 result, but I like Fulham +2.5 at -103 odds. That means if Man City don't win by three goals, you'll win. If you're more confident, you can get +2 at +170 odds, but in that case, you'll only get your money back if Man City win by exactly two goals. This is mainly a play against Man City, who have won two matches by more than one goal: last weekend's win against Burnley and the 3-1 opener against Wolves.

I'd bet on Wolves +1 at +118 as well, but it doesn't feel right to go against both Liverpool and Man City on the same weekend. Despite not having Raul Jimenez, Wolves usually play the top teams tight and this match won't be different, especially given Liverpool's injury issues. These sides haven't played since January, but in two meetings last season, Liverpool won 2-1 and 1-0. 

Similar to last week, I'm looking at the Manchester United over. They're in another matchup that should feature goals after they beat Southampton 3-2 last week. West Ham's only low-scoring matches this season have come against bottom-tier teams because their back line has struggled against most top competition. I think both teams will get opportunities and a single bet on over 2.5 goals at -134 is a reasonable play. 

I want to take the Southampton-Brighton over as well, but prior results have me backing away from that. They drew 1-1 in the most recent meeting (July), as Brighton struggled to get quality opportunities after scoring the opening goal. That's been the problem all season for Brighton, which is why the over is hard to back. When Brighton were scoring early in the season, the over hit in their first four matches, but since then it's been harder to trust and another 1-1 or 1-0 result is possible.

I have the same thoughts on the Chelsea v. Leeds match because even though I think both sides will get opportunities, Chelsea's back line has been too good the last month to take the over. Taking over 2.5 goals in any of their matches likely means you're betting on Chelsea to score at least three.

The West Brom v. Crystal Palace match seems like an obvious spot to bet both teams not to score at -115. Maybe it's a trap, but the numbers point to this being a 1-0 or 1-1 type of match because neither team is consistent up front, though the return of Wilfried Zaha should help Palace. One team has failed to score in six of West Brom's last seven matches and, despite winning last match, it required a random shot from distance by Conor Gallagher. If I had to guess, I'd go with a 1-0 Palace win, which is +650.

It also makes sense to bet both teams not to score at +104 between Tottenham and Arsenal. Prior results point to that not happening, but Tottenham have four clean sheets in their last five matches and Arsenal have been held scoreless in two of their last three. There's a chance the Gunners mix things up in order to get something going, but I'm not sure that works in this matchup.

The same goes for Sheffield United, who may also want to put more into the attack after another loss, but it's not like they have the talent to score more. They play defensive matches to win 1-0 and that leads me to the under 2.5 goals at -122 against Leicester City. The Foxes are struggling to score and a matchup against a defensive Sheffield United side won't help.

THE BETS

Fulham +2.5 -103

Wolves +1 +118

West Brom/Crystal Palace both teams won't score -115

Sheffield United/Leicester City under 2.5 goals -122

Parlay: Everton win or draw (-400), West Ham/Manchester United over 1.5 goals (-435), Southampton win or draw (-190) = +135

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's assistant soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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