2025 Cincinnati Open: Best Bets For Thursday's Quarterfinals
Quarterfinal action begins Thursday from the fast-paced hard courts of the Cincinnati Open. An underdog's head-to-head edge isn't necessarily a sign of continued success, while a top-10 seed on the women's side gets an opportunity to avenge one of the biggest losses of her career.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Ella Seidel (+150) vs. Varvara Gracheva
Both of these qualifiers have notched some impressive wins en route to the Round of 16, with Seidel beating No. 8 seed Emma Navarro in the second round and Gracheva knocking off No. 11 seed Karolina Muchova in the third round. The pressure's ratcheting up now that each has a chance to reach a WTA 1000 quarterfinal for the first time, and Gracheva could have more of that pressure on her shoulders. She's five years older than Seidel at age 25, and Gracheva has a 22-spot edge in the rankings at No. 103. Seidel could have more such opportunities on the horizon as an ascendant 20-year-old, and the German has thrived in the clutch, coming back from 4-1 down in the third set against Navarro and then saving two match points in her 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (6) third-round win over No. 29 seed McCartney Kessler.
Lucia Bronzetti (+750) vs. Coco Gauff
Gauff scuffled to a 2-3 record in her last five matches prior to this tournament, and it's too early to tell whether she has turned the corner considering her path to the Round of 16 consisted of a bye, a 6-3, 6-2 win over unseeded Xinyu Wang in which Gauff double faulted eight times, and then a walkover against Dayana Yastremska. Bronzetti has already knocked off two top-23 seeds in Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko, so the Italian's worth taking a flier on as a significant underdog considering Gauff's recent vulnerability and poor serving performances.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-650) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
It's tempting to buy into the narrative of Auger-Aliassime's underdog appeal thanks to his 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Sinner, but both of those wins came before Sinner leveled up and became the world's best ball striker. Their last meeting came here three years ago in a match that FAA won 2-6, 7-6(1), 6-1 over a Sinner who had turned 21 years old just two days prior. Now knocking on the door of his 24th birthday (Aug. 16), Sinner holds the top ranking, has won the last three hard-court Grand Slam events and has only one loss to a player other than Carlos Alcaraz on this surface since the start of last year. Sinner's elite mix of pace and accuracy off both wings will give him a distinct advantage in rallies over FAA, who has an obvious weakness on the backhand side.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Jasmine Paolini (-140) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Krejcikova has won both of their previous encounters, including the pivotal matchup in the final of Wimbledon last year, but Paolini has found significantly more success since then. The ninth-ranked Italian claimed a WTA 1000 title in Rome and reached a hard-court WTA 1000 semifinal in Miami this year, while Krejcikova hasn't reached a WTA 1000 or Grand Slam quarterfinal since winning Wimbledon. The oft-injured Czech finally looks healthy, but she has already been pushed to three sets three times in this tournament, making this the longest stretch she's played in a tournament in 2025.
