U.S. Open 2025: Sinner Favored for Men, Numerous U.S. Women in Title Mix
The fourth and final Grand Slam of 2025 begins Sunday, Aug. 24 from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. Top men's seed Jannik Sinner is seeking a fourth consecutive hard-court Grand Slam title, but 2022 U.S. Open champion Carlos Alcaraz has a chance to split the four Grand Slams 2-2 with Sinner for a second consecutive year, and it's hard to completely write off 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic, even at age 38 and seemingly at less than full health. Aryna Sabalenka is seeded No. 1 in the women's draw and has consistently been in the mix late in Grand Slams, while 2022 U.S. Open champion Iga Swiatek is surging, but there are plenty of Americans in the hunt as well, accounting for five of the top 10 seeds.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the U.S. Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Arthur Fils (back), Grigor Dimitrov (pectoral), Hubert Hurkacz (back) and Nick Kyrgios will be sidelined on the men's side, while women's star Qinwen Zheng (elbow) is hurt and Ons Jabeur is taking a leave from tennis for personal reasons. Casper Ruud and Sebastian Korda have recovered from the respective knee and leg injuries that sidelined them at Wimbledon, and Sinner should be back on track after an illness cut his Cincinnati Open final against Alcaraz short Monday. Other notable injuries to monitor ahead of the U.S. Open include Djokovic (groin), Frances Tiafoe (back), Karen Khachanov (back), Jakub Mensik (illness), and Francisco Cerundolo (abdomen), as well as Mirra Andreeva (ankle) and Marta Kostyuk (wrist), though all of those players are currently listed in their respective draws.
There's a big gap in odds between the top two favorites on the men's side and the rest of the field, then another large gap after a group of secondary contenders headlined by Djokovic. The women's draw also has two clear favorites but a much more robust group of secondary contenders. Most of the season is played on hard courts, so we have plenty of data from 2025 on the surface, including recent results at big tournaments in Canada and Cincinnati.
After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Other best sports betting sites for betting both tennis futures and individual matches include FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. Tennis Odds & Lines can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.
U.S Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite for the 2025 U.S. Open
Jannik Sinner (+110) - Sinner has been the best player in the game when available in 2025, as he would be going for a calendar year Grand Slam here if not for a squandered triple match point against Alcaraz in the French Open final. Hard court has been Sinner's best surface, as he has only one loss to anyone other than Alcaraz on hard courts since the start of 2024 and is undefeated at hard court Grand Slams over that span. He looked fine in practice leading up to this tournament, suggesting Sinner has no physical limitations after having to retire against Alcaraz in the final of the Cincinnati Open on Monday for Sinner's first hard-court loss of 2025. Sinner has benefited from some easy draws in recent Grand Slams, but he has a harder early path on paper here. Alexei Popyrin is a dangerous possible second-round opponent, having beaten Djokovic at last year's U.S. Open, and chalk third-round opponent Denis Shapovalov is a high-ceiling big hitter. Sinner could face Tommy Paul or Alexander Bublik in the Round of 16, then Jack Draper in the quarterfinals and Alexander Zverev in the semis before another possible major final against Alcaraz.
In the Mix for the 2025 U.S. Open
Carlos Alcaraz (+175) - Alcaraz got off to a slow start in 2025 by his lofty standards but has flipped a switch with a 30-1 record since the start of May. He's still more vulnerable on hard courts than natural surfaces, having suffered a shocking loss in the second round of last year's U.S. Open, but Alcaraz has had a better balance of match play and rest heading into this year's tournament and is firmly entrenched as the top challenger to Sinner's title defense. The second-seeded Spaniard has a tricky first-round draw against big-serving American Reilly Opelka, then smooth sailing until the Round of 16, where Alcaraz could start a gauntlet consisting of Daniil Medvedev, Ben Shelton, Djokovic and Sinner. Medvedev and Djokovic both have hard-court Grand Slam wins over Alcaraz dating back to the 2023 U.S. Open.
Novak Djokovic (+1400) - Djokovic hasn't played since Wimbledon due to a groin injury, which clearly hampered his movement in his semifinal exit against Sinner at the All England Club. Assuming he's close to full health, Djokovic still has enough shot making, mental toughness and experience to make him the favorite against any opponent other than Sinner or Alcaraz. Landing in Alcaraz's half of the draw is a positive development for the seventh-seeded Djokovic, as Sinner's a tougher stylistic matchup at this stage of their careers, though Djokovic may not find it easy to get past No. 4 seed Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals to set up a possible semifinal against Alcaraz.
Four other players have title odds of +3000 or shorter before a substantial drop in title hopes for the rest of the field: Jack Draper (+2000), Ben Shelton (+2200), Alexander Zverev (+2200) and Taylor Fritz (+3000). Draper and Shelton each won a hard-court Masters 1000 event this year, with Shelton's triumph coming earlier this month at the Canadian Open, which notably didn't include Sinner, Alcaraz or Djokovic. Shelton's the chalk quarterfinal opponent for Alcaraz, while Draper is Sinner's. Zverev hasn't gotten over the hump to win a Grand Slam, but he's been to three finals. The first two ended in heartbreaking five-set losses, but he went tamely in straight sets against Sinner in this year's Australian Open final. The big-serving German is favored to reach the semifinals as the No. 3 seed, where he could face Sinner. Fritz lost to Sinner in last year's U.S. Open final, and the fourth-seeded American pushed Alcaraz in a competitive four-set semifinal loss at Wimbledon.
Sleepers for the 2025 U.S. Open
Daniil Medvedev (+8000) - Medvedev has regressed significantly in 2025 and been especially disappointing in Grand Slams, where he has just a 1-3 record this season. Still, he can't be written off completely at a hard-court major considering he has played three finals apiece at the U.S. Open and Australian Open, including his triumph at the 2021 U.S. Open. The lanky Russian gets the most mileage out of his flat, low strokes on hard courts, and Medvedev's still capable of beating anybody on his best serving days. He's on a fourth-round collision course with Alcaraz as the No. 13 seed, but Medvedev's 2023 U.S. Open semifinal win over Alcaraz wasn't all that long ago, so there should still be some belief left in the 29-year-old Medvedev.
Holger Rune (+12000) - Just two years ago, the Rune vs. Sinner debate was all the rage, with both youngsters vying for the role of Alcaraz's top next-gen rival. That debate looks to have been definitively settled, but the 22-year-old Rune has enough game to close the gap. The talented Dane has underachieved since beating Djokovic to win the Paris Masters in 2022, but Rune has shown glimpses of his immense upside in 2025, reaching a hard-court Masters 1000 final in Indian Wells and handing Alcaraz his only clay-court loss of the year at Barcelona. There's no reason Rune can't at least hang around the Draper/Shelton tier, but his title odds are far removed from theirs at this tournament. The 11th-seeded Rune has perennially played Djokovic tough, and they could face off in the Round of 16 here.
Karen Khachanov (+15000) - Prior to retiring in the Round of 16 at the Cincinnati Open, Khachanov had put together an impressive stretch, beating Zverev en route to the final at the Canadian Open shortly after reaching the quarterfinals of Wimbledon. The ninth-seeded Russian has been to the quarterfinals of all four majors and reached the semifinals of the 2022 U.S. Open, so he has plenty of big match experience. No. 8 seed Alex de Minaur and Zverev are the two biggest obstacles on Khachanov's path to another U.S. Open SF.
U.S. Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite for the 2025 U.S. Open
Iga Swiatek (+250) - Swiatek's nearly impossible to stop when she gets rolling, both on a micro scale within a match and on a macro scale as a dominant player who hoovers up big titles when in form. She's most comfortable in slower court conditions, but Swiatek has taken her fast-surface game to a new level the last couple months, winning Wimbledon and the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati, which is played on some of the tour's fastest hard courts. She hadn't won either title previously, and until Wimbledon, Swiatek's only non-French Open Grand Slam title was the 2022 U.S. Open. With her slow start to 2025 now a distant memory, the No. 2 seed just edges out top-seeded Sabalenka in the title odds as the favorite here. Iga's toughest potential opponent prior to the quarterfinals is probably No. 29 seed Anna Kalinskaya, whom Swiatek just handled in the Cincinnati quarterfinals. Amanda Anisimova or Elina Svitolina could put up more of a fight in the quarterfinals; then again, the double bagel Swiatek handed Anisimova in the Wimbledon final shows just how big the gap can be when Iga's at her best. Coco Gauff, Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka are potential semifinal opponents, while Sabalenka's on the opposite side of the draw.
In the Mix for the 2025 U.S. Open
Aryna Sabalenka (+275) - Sabalenka's firmly entrenched atop the WTA rankings thanks to her consistency, but she has fallen just short in the biggest moments this year, falling in the finals of the Australian Open and French Open, as well as the Wimbledon semifinals. She won both hard-court Grand Slams in 2024, though, and the defending U.S. Open champion will likely be in contention deep into the second week once again here. Sabalenka's toughest pre-quarterfinal hurdle could be a Round of 16 matchup against Clara Tauson, who beat Elena Rybakina at Wimbledon and both Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys at the Canadian Open. Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini are potential quarterfinal opponents for Sabalenka, then Mirra Andreeva and Jessica Pegula are possible semifinal opponents.
Coco Gauff (+950) - Gauff has struggled since breaking through for her second career Grand Slam title at the French Open, adding to her 2023 U.S. Open crown. She's just 4-4 since then and has been surpassed in the rankings by the surging Swiatek, who is Gauff's potential semifinal opponent. Serving struggles have been the primary culprit for Gauff's poor recent form, as she has matches with 23, 16 and 14 double faults in this post-French Open span. Gauff could face an early test in the second round against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, while Osaka or Daria Kasatkina are potential fourth-round opponents and Keys is her chalk quarterfinal foe.
Mirra Andreeva (+1100) - Andreeva had an injury scare with her ankle at the Canadian Open, which forced her to withdraw from Cincinnati, but her participation in the star-studded U.S. Open mixed doubles event this past week indicates she should be healthy enough to play. If she has no limitations to her movement, the 18-year-old Russian could very well win this title. She won consecutive hard-court WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells earlier this year, beating Swiatek and Rybakina twice each over that span in addition to notching a win over Sabalenka. Andreeva's quarterfinal exits at the French Open and Wimbledon were both quite disappointing considering they came against unseeded opponents, but those solid results have propelled her to No. 5 in the rankings and she landed in the section with the least imposing top-four seed in Pegula.
Elena Rybakina (+1200) - Rybakina's rolling heading into the U.S. Open, as she just beat Keys and Sabalenka in Cincinnati before falling to Swiatek in the semifinals. The 2022 Wimbledon champion and 2023 Australian Open runner-up is a top-five player when fully healthy, as appears to be the case at the moment, but she frequently deals with injuries and ailments. Despite being seeded two spots behind No. 7 Paolini, the ninth-seeded Rybakina would be favored if they meet in a chalk Round of 16 matchup. Emma Raducanu or Veronika Kudermetova could present a challenge in the third round before then.
Five other players have title odds of +3500 or better in a deep women's draw: Naomi Osaka (+2000), Madison Keys (+2000), Victoria Mboko (+2200), Amanda Anisimova (+2500) and Emma Raducanu (+3500). Osaka and Mboko recently met in a WTA 1000 final at the Canadian Open, with the Canadian teenager thrilling the home crowd by winning the title while Osaka struggled to control her emotions and contributed to beating herself. That run by Osaka showed that she still has the physical tools to be a title contender on hard courts, where she won four Grand Slams from 2018-21, and a recent coaching change seems to have helped her mental game, that Canadian Open final disappointment notwithstanding. Osaka's back in the seeded range at No. 23 but could face Gauff in the Round of 16.
Like Osaka, Keys has a booming serve and powerful groundstrokes, which the sixth-seeded American used to break through for her first Grand Slam title on the hard courts of the Australian Open this year. Mboko's quickly ascending the rankings, and the 18-year-old Canadian is the No. 22 seed in her first U.S. Open appearance. She's in the quarter of the draw with Andreeva and Pegula. The eighth-seeded Anisimova won a hard-court WTA 1000 title at the Qatar Open in addition to reaching the Wimbledon final this year. Raducanu's title odds seem overstated, especially given her difficult draw, though the 22-year-old Brit has recently played some of her best tennis since her Cinderella run to the U.S. Open title in 2021, as Raducanu pushed Sabalenka to a third-set tiebreak in Cincinnati.
Sleepers for the 2025 U.S. Open
Jessica Pegula (+4000) - Both Pegula and Jasmine Paolini have +4000 odds, just missing out on making the previous group. Pegula's flying under the radar with so many players ahead of her in the odds, but this looks like a nice buy-low opportunity on the No. 4 seed, who reached the final of last year's U.S. Open. She has run hot and cold in 2025 but has three titles this year and reached a hard-court WTA 1000 final in Miami. Belinda Bencic is her chalk fourth-round opponent while possible quarterfinal foes include Andreeva, Mboko or No. 10 seed Emma Navarro.
Veronika Kudermetova (+10000) - Kudermetova's a former top-10 player who has found her form recently, climbing to the No. 24 seed here after making the semifinals of the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati last week. She also reached the Round of 16 of the Australian Open as an unseeded player this year. The big-hitting Russian has a chance to claim some notable scalps here, as she could face Raducanu in the second round, Rybakina in the third round and Paolini in the Round of 16, in what would be a Cincinnati SF rematch.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (+10000) - Bouzas Maneiro's 6-0, 6-1 drubbing of Navarro at the French Open kickstarted a strong stretch from the 22-year-old Spaniard that has seen her find all-court success by reaching the third round at Roland Garros, fourth round of Wimbledon, quarterfinals of the Canadian Open and fourth round in Cincinnati. There's no substitute for match wins, and Bouzas Maneiro has racked up plenty of them lately to crack the top 40. With Gauff looking vulnerable, Bouzas Maneiro could give the No. 3 seed trouble in the second round and would inherit a favorable draw if she pulls off the upset.
Picks to Win the U.S. Open
Alcaraz and Sinner have established a huge gap between themselves and the rest of the field after splitting the last seven Grand Slams (4-3 Sinner), but the gap between the world's two best players is smaller than their title odds suggest, even on Sinner's preferred hard courts. Both players will be prohibitive favorites in every match, even if Alcaraz has the tougher obstacles on his path, and while a final between the two of them would be a toss-up leaning Sinner, Alcaraz's 9-5 head-to-head edge (6-2 on hard courts) suggests he'd certainly be in with a chance. Alcaraz at +175 is at least just as appealing a bet as Sinner at +110 given that context, but my 2025 U.S. Open title pick is Jannik Sinner over Alcaraz in the final.
Swiatek and Sabalenka should both be in the mix deep into the second week, but recent history suggests Iga's fighting an uphill battle, as the last woman to win consecutive Grand Slams is Osaka at the 2020 U.S. Open and 2021 Australian Open, while the only woman to pull off the Wimbledon-U.S. Open double since Serena Williams in 2002 was Serena again in 2012. Assuming she's close to full health, Mirra Andreeva is my pick to break through for what could be the first of many Grand Slam titles, beating the resurgent Osaka in the final.
