2025 U.S. Open: Can Djokovic or FAA Prevent Alcaraz-Sinner III?
The U.S. Open men's semifinals will be played Friday on the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are seemingly on a collision course toward a third consecutive major final matchup after splitting the previous two, but the favorites both have losing head-to-head records against Friday's semifinal opponents.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz (-380) vs. Novak Djokovic (+290)
Alcaraz has breezed through this tournament without dropping a set, improving to 35-1 in his last 36 matches. That said, Djokovic is a nice value as the significant underdog in this match considering he leads the head-to-head over Alcaraz 5-3, including 3-0 on hard courts. When these two faced off in the Australian Open quarterfinals this year, Alcaraz seemed to lose focus as it was apparent Djokovic was laboring through an injury, and Djokovic peppered Alcaraz's weak forehand return to pick up plenty of easy points on serve. Alcaraz looks to have closed that hole in his hard-court game, but this matchup will still test the Spaniard's focus and mental stamina in a way that no other opponent besides Sinner is capable of doing.
Alcaraz and Djokovic have already partaken in a few titanic battles, and this semifinal could be another one, as Djokovic knows his opportunities are dwindling at age 38. Sinner has been a nightmare matchup for Djokovic because the world No. 1 can return Djokovic's rock-solid groundstrokes with even more power and precision, but the Alcaraz matchup features more of a clash of styles, where Djokovic's steady floor over the course of five sets can often win out over the Spaniard's fluctuations between brilliance and frustration. If Alcaraz maintains his A-game, he'll book a spot in what's likely to be a third consecutive major final against Sinner, but Alcaraz has a much higher hurdle to clear here in the semis compared to his Italian counterpart.
U.S. Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Djokovic 6-2, 3-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime
Jannik Sinner (-2500) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (+1300)
Outside of a third-round wobble against Denis Shapovalov, Sinner has been his usual dominant self, mowing each of his other opponents down without dropping more than seven games. He's up to 25-1 in Grand Slam matches in 2025, making Sinner the prohibitive favorite in this match, but Auger-Aliassime's chances are a bit better than his long odds suggest. FAA's peak tennis is high when he's serving well, and he'll be brimming with confidence after beating No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev, No. 15 seed Andrey Rublev and No. 8 seed Alex de Minaur consecutively in his last three matches, dropping only two sets across those three victories. Auger-Aliassime also knows what it's like to beat Sinner, as the Canadian holds a 2-1 career head-to-head edge. That said, both of those wins came in 2022, and Sinner showed that the modern version of himself is a far different player, handling FAA 6-0, 6-2 in Cincinnati last month.
Alexander Bublik's big serve didn't prevent him from being served a trio of breadsticks by Sinner in the Round of 16, but Auger-Aliassime has the ability to earn more easy points with the serve-plus-1 thanks to his big forehand. A great serving day is a must for the Canadian, and perhaps his compatriot Shapovalov can offer some tips on how to throw Sinner off his game, as Shapovalov was well positioned to get up two sets to one on Sinner in the third round before imploding. Any backhand-to-backhand exchange is a nearly guaranteed point for Sinner, but Auger-Aliassime can go toe-to-toe with Sinner off the forehand wing. With the crowd providing support for the North American player, look for FAA to put up a respectable fight in his second career U.S. Open semifinal.
U.S. Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Sinner def. Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 6-7, 7-5, 6-3
