Wimbledon 2025: Two Americans Try To Earn Semifinal Spots
Quarterfinal play begins Tuesday at Wimbledon from the grass courts of the All England Club in London. The title favorites on the men's and women's side are overwhelmingly favored in their respective matches Tuesday, but the day's other two singles matches could produce some surprising results.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Wimbledon Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Karen Khachanov (+250) vs. Taylor Fritz
Both of these players have much more well-rounded baseline games than is typical for guys their size. The 6-foot-6 Khachanov is the better mover, while the 6-foot-5 Fritz gets much more out of his high contact point on the serve. Despite Fritz's advantage on serve, Khachanov leads their head-to-head 2-0, though they haven't played since 2020. Fritz currently holds a 15-spot edge in the rankings at No. 5, but Khachanov has found more success in major quarterfinals over the years. The Russian is 2-3 in Grand Slam quarterfinals in his career (0-1 at Wimbledon), while Fritz is 1-4 (0-2 at Wimbledon). Both players have had to battle through a pair of five setters to reach this stage, but neither expended much energy in the Round of 16, advancing without dropping a set. Fritz's results over the past year have been much better, but he's in a relatively unfamiliar position as a favorite in a match this late in a major.
Wimbledon Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (-2000) vs. Cameron Norrie
The talent gap here is just too great for Norrie to overcome, even with the crowd in the 61st-ranked Brit's corner. Norrie has actually held his own in this head-to-head, with Alcaraz leading 4-2, but Norrie's win in their most recent encounter -- Rio de Janeiro in 2023 -- came against a version of Alcaraz that was hobbled by injury. Present-day Alcaraz is on a roll, having won a career-best 22 consecutive matches, and the Spaniard also has an 18-match Wimbledon winning streak going, as he's three wins away from a threepeat. Alcaraz is used to favorable treatment from the fans, but he was unfazed in his first career Wimbledon match against a Brit in the second round, when he beat Oliver Tarvet in straight sets. While the Spaniard's game has gone through occasional dips, with Alcaraz dropping four sets through four rounds, it's hard to see him faltering long enough for Norrie to have a realistic chance of pulling the upset. Norrie's lack of weapons should allow Alcaraz to consistently get into the Brit's service games, so any lead Norrie builds in a set will never be safe.
Honorable Mention
Aryna Sabalenka (-2000) vs. Laura Siegemund
Wimbledon Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+195) vs. Amanda Anisimova
Anisimova is the deserving favorite in this match, but Pavlyuchenkova at +195 is the better value than Anisimova at -250, as this battle of big hitters is likely to come down to the wire. Both players generally dictate play off the ground, and neither will be willing to cede much space, so lengthy rallies will likely be hard to come by. Anisimova has a dominant 3-0 head-to-head edge, but all three of those matchups were on hard courts, and the last one came down to 6-4 in the third set just under a year ago in Washington DC. Pavlyuchenkova's just 1-8 in Grand Slam quarterfinal matches, including a three-set loss to Sabalenka at that stage of this year's Australian Open, while Anisimova's 1-1 in such matches, most recently losing in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon in 2022. The stylistic matchup plays into Anisimova' favor, as she's adept at absorbing and redirecting power, but the 23-year-old American will need to hold her nerve as the favorite again after being pushed to a third set by each of her previous two opponents. Serving well will be key for both players, as they would much rather start rallies off on the front foot with the first serve than give the opposition looks at attackable second serves.
