Betting Strategies for Wimbledon: Favorites and Upset Alerts
Quarterfinal play wraps up Wednesday at Wimbledon from the grass courts of the All England Club in London. An American will look to shake the tennis world with a monumental upset, while big names in the women's draw try to set up a highly anticipated semifinal showdown.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, while the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites.
Wimbledon Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Ben Shelton (+310) vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner leads their head-to-head 5-1 and won 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 (9) when these two faced off in the fourth round of Wimbledon last year, but Shelton has made major strides in his grass-court game since then, especially as a returner. In addition to being broken just four times en route to the quarterfinals this year, the 22-year-old American has broken serve 14 times in four matches and lost only one set. Sinner will take control of rallies if they just exchange blows from the baseline, but Shelton can disrupt Sinner's rhythm with frequent forays to the net, so look for Shelton to mix in plenty of serve and volleying in addition to coming forward when the American gets the upper hand in rallies. Grass is still Sinner's least comfortable surface, and he was let off the hook in his last match as the injury-prone Grigor Dimitrov had to retire mid-match for a fifth consecutive Grand Slam after getting up two sets to love on the world No. 1. Sinner injured his elbow after slipping in the first game of that match and subsequently had an MRI on the injury. While Sinner probably isn't at risk of retiring from the injury, it's certainly possible that it will impact his level again like it seemed to against Dimitrov. Shelton's excellent serve and athleticism to back it up should allow him to keep sets close, and if Sinner's just a little off due to the elbow, that could be the difference between winning and losing tight sets that come down to a few key points.
Wimbledon Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Mirra Andreeva (-240) vs. Belinda Bencic
Andreeva's shocking quarterfinal loss to Lois Boisson at the French Open sent the 18-year-old Russian into a temporary tailspin, but the prodigious teenager has regained her composure and is peaking at the right time in this tournament. The No. 7 seed has yet to drop a set this Wimbledon, and her scratchy second set in a 6-1, 7-6 (4) second-round win over Lucia Bronzetti is the only set in which Andreeva lost more than three games. The 35th-ranked Bencic is better than her ranking suggests, and the Swiss veteran is in her fourth Grand Slam quarterfinal (1-2 record), but Andreeva's well-rounded skill set should allow her to exploit the weaknesses in Bencic's game -- namely the second serve and forehand. Andreeva's forehand can break down at times as well, but her willingness to adapt and win ugly by slicing when necessary helps Andreeva mask her flaws more effectively. Andreeva already made a Grand Slam semifinal at last year's French Open, won a pair of WTA Masters 1000 events earlier this year and met the moment with a dominant 6-2, 6-3 win over No. 10 seed Emma Navarro in Andreeva's Centre Court debut in the Round of 16, so she's unlikely to be overwhelmed by nerves as the favorite despite her relative inexperience.
Iga Swiatek (-275) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Swiatek has never advanced past the quarterfinals of Wimbledon before, but she has usually been coming off mentally and physically exhausting French Open titles, as she won Roland Garros four of the previous five years. She had additional time to adjust to the grass after a semifinal exit at the French Open this year, as well as much less pressure on her as the No. 8 seed as opposed to what had become her customary spot at No. 1. Grass is still Iga's worst surface, but she should handle the moment much better than Samsonova, who has been a perennial Grand Slam underperformer and is playing in her first Grand Slam quarterfinal. Swiatek's a five-time Grand Slam champion and has an 8-3 career record in Grand Slam quarterfinals. The 19th-seeded Samsonova is a big hitter, but she doesn't really have a Plan B to turn to, and errors are more likely to creep into the Russian's high-risk game in big matches. Swiatek's a much better problem solver on the court and has a well-rounded game, with much better ability to go from defense to offense in rallies. Swiatek has dominated Samsonova head-to-head, winning all four previous matches and dropping only 10 games in their last three meetings combined.
Honorable Mention
Novak Djokovic (-1100) vs. Flavio Cobolli
