This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Javier Baez finishes outside of the Top 150. His NFBC ADP is 102, which is what I am basing this prediction off, rather than his 72nd ranking in our projections. My overall point is that I think he disappoints, but I am not going way out on the limb and saying he will fall that far down the line because better bold predictions are reality based.
The StatCast database tells us that 183 batters had at least 400 at-bats in 2017, and of those 183 players Baez had the 11th largest negative differential between his actual wOBA and his expected (xwOBA) weighted on-base average. There was a 53-point difference between his actual .339 wOBA and his .286 xwOBA. The StatCast primer explains xwOBA, but in a shorter format, it uses the data from exit velocity and launch angle while removing defense from the equation. Batters, and pitchers, can influence exit velocity and launch angle but lose complete control of the equation once the bat makes contact with the ball.
Baez's average exit velocity in 2017 was in the bottom 50 percent of