Mound Musings: Play Ball!

Do you remember the anticipation of the umpire yelling, "Play ball!" and knowing things were about to be decided on the field? That's just about where we are now with regard to the 2020 MLB season. It's not cast in stone, as there are many details to be worked through including scheduling, and dealing with still lingering pandemic concerns, but commissioner Rob Manfred has instructed teams to resume "spring" training on July 1, with the expectation of commencing a 60-game regular season schedule to run from late July to late September, followed by playoffs. The players, via the union have agreed to report next week, so the ball is rolling.

The Baseball Return Watch: Yes, we will play ball, but like so many other things in 2020, in many ways, it won't be like anything we have seen before. Obviously, there will be differences in the fantasy game as well. I'd like to say I have a locked in plan for my fantasy pitching staffs, and I do have a basic approach in mind, but I honestly believe winning in fantasy this season will heavily depend on adjusting on the fly. That said, I'd like to explore some of the things we can expect (or maybe be surprised by) as we fasten the seat belts and head into baseball 2020.

Here are some details we can anticipate seeing this season:

• Spring Training – It should all begin next week with a return to "spring" training. For the most part, teams will work out at their home park or perhaps at facilities close by like minor league or college parks. The hope is approximately three weeks will provide enough time for players to get back into game shape. Since most players have continued to work out – typically at their homes – the timeframe should be sufficient for position players, but may not allow starting pitchers to be fully stretched out before the real games begin. As of now, there have been no spring training games scheduled, but I would guess those will come about later in the spring training activities. Until then, you can expect to see intra-squad games to help teams attempt to get that competitive edge.
• The Schedule – As of this writing, no schedule has been released for regular season games. The anticipation is teams will play a 60-game schedule, exclusively facing teams in their own division, and teams in the corresponding division in the other league. The tentative plan is for each team to face each divisional opponent 10 times (40 games) and each divisional opponent from the other league four times (20 games), thereby greatly reducing air travel. In some regions where teams are located in relatively close proximity, like the Eastern seaboard, that will accomplish the goal. There are a couple roadblocks still to overcome. Most notably, while all U.S. based teams should have open access to their MLB venue, Toronto still has pandemic restrictions that would preclude games in that city, at least early on in the regular season.
• The Fans – Right now, games would be played in almost empty stadiums. Beyond the obvious financial repercussions, the impact on the fan following and actual play intensity are difficult to predict. Games will be televised, and, of course, everything possible will be done to enhance the viewing experience, with the hope that the health concerns will lessen, allowing fans to attend later in the year.
• Rosters – This looks seriously convoluted. Active rosters were set to expand to 26 players this season, and that eventually will be the end result. However, this season will see unprecedented roster accommodations to help overcome the significant health concerns and scheduling challenges. Plans are initially to allow 60-man rosters with 30-man active rosters to reduce complications from injuries, etc. This will be critically important with regard to pitchers who are unlikely to be fully stretched out, meaning shorter outings and heavier bullpen usage. There will also be a three-man "taxi squad" for each team providing last-minute replacements as needed. Plus, these taxi squad members may not accumulate MLB service time, making it ideal for keeping top tier prospects on the critical developmental time line. There is also the likelihood there will be a universal DH, which will add the need for an additional player in each lineup. Perhaps the biggest challenge will be keeping the non-active players sharp with no minor league games being played. We probably can expect more clarification in the next few days, but I'm guessing things could evolve and change as the season progresses. My best advice is, stay flexible.
• The Mental Side – This is one aspect of the unusual 2020 season that is nearly impossible to quantify. Having played the game competitively (okay, many years ago) I can attest that adrenaline is a key component of performance. There is a reason teams enjoy a "home field advantage," and the fans are a huge part of that. As a pitcher, getting jazzed to face the opposing hitters can give you an edge. Think about it. How many times have you shuddered when your closer entered a lopsided game just to get some work in? Without that adrenaline pumping his pitches just didn't have the same life, and your ERA paid the price. With no fans, a quiet stadium might not bring about peak performance. Add any worries about health, and the atmosphere might lack a lot of what makes everything tick. Some pitchers will really struggle with the passive environment. Others may not be affected at all. The problem is, I don't know of any way to effectively predict who will and who will not be impacted.
• COVID-19 – Here's the real skeleton in the closet. Over the past few months, the pandemic has waxed and waned. For a while it looked like things were settling down, but recently it seems to be picking up again. Ballplayers aren't old, they are typically in excellent physical condition, and they are less likely than the general population to have underlying health complications, but there is still a risk, and a positive test will result in a quarantine that takes the player off the field for at least two to three weeks. With the short schedule, that's like missing half the season. What would it mean to your fantasy team if you lose your rotation's ace for one month of a two-month season? This short schedule will probably somewhat level the playing field. Any team can get hot (or cold) long enough to move in the standings, and this added risk of losing key players just magnifies that scenario. My gut feeling is depth will be more important than ever.

There you have it. Just some thoughts on what we might expect as baseball gets underway for 2020. Again, this is unprecedented. There are no guidelines to follow. I do think things will become much clearer once a detailed plan is in place, but there are bound to be adjustments along the way, and teams will no doubt try different paths hoping for success. It promises to be a wild, albeit short, ride, but at least it appears we will have baseball this year, and we'll take it one step at a time here on the Musings.

Some Random Rotation Ramblings (with a few Predictions):

• Let's pull out the crystal ball and make a couple predictions beginning with the NL Cy Young award. The competition is very rough but I am going to go with Cardinals' ace Jack Flaherty. I have long touted his upside, but he stepped into the top tier of starting pitchers over the second half of last season.
• For my pick in the AL, I'm guessing my choice will be a bit more mainstream. The competition will be intense here, too, I am sure, but Gerrit Cole is at the top of his game, and I can't see anyone sneaking past him. Of course, New York is normally an adrenaline fountain so a quiet stadium could be a factor.
• In what would be a major head turner, I considered predicting a Cy Young for the Cubs' Yu Darvish. Last summer he really strongly hinted he is ready for a return to top-of-the-rotation status. If he comes out of the gate consistently throwing his entire repertoire for strikes, he will again be a dominant fantasy performer.
• While I remain convinced Shohei Ohtani's ceiling is as high as that of any pitcher in the game today, the Angels continue to say he will start just one game per week. Unfortunately, seven days between starts, rather than the usual five, will have a negative impact on his fantasy value as a pitcher.

Endgame Odyssey:

The most impactful information regarding bullpens over the next few weeks probably will be related to the ongoing preparation for the regular season, especially for relievers rehabbing from injuries. For example, the Giants have announced that their most likely candidate to close to begin the season, Tony Watson (shoulder tightness), should be back to full health, while a serious contender for saves at some point, Reyes Moronta (shoulder surgery) is expected back in August. In Tampa Bay, the Rays' primary late-inning candidates are healthy, but their roles have yet to be clearly defined. I still believe the guy to own is Nick Anderson, but a compressed schedule could lead to more committee approaches to the ninth inning. The back of the Seattle bullpen looks like a wide open affair. Yoshihisa Hirano probably begins the season as the closer, but there are plenty of other options including the promising Austin Adams (knee surgery) who is reportedly back to full health.