MLB Betting: Thursday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Thursday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

The season is a month old, which means we have a small sample of data to work with here.  For example, if you simply bet the money line every game on whoever was facing the Tigers, you would be doing pretty well, even with only mediocre odds.

This article will once again focus on the early games of the day.  As previously discussed, I will also attempt to sprinkle in some bonus bets, usually longshot wagers, in sections titled "Swing for the Fences".

1:05 p.m. EDT Astros (Lance McCullers) at Yankees (Gerrit Cole) – Yankees First Five Innings (-194) for 1 RWbuck.  The trash cans have been out in full force for the series between the Astros and Yankees, but this pitching matchup is far from garbage.  Gerrit Cole has been the best pitcher in the American League this season.  Since a mediocre Opening Day start, he has allowed just five runs in his last 32.1 innings.

In addition, Yankees bats have finally seemed to come alive lately.  New York has scored at least six runs in four of the last five games.  Lance McCullers has been decent this season and is coming off seven shutout innings of the Rays.  However, he has been a tad wild, walking at least three batters in four of five outings, something that could come back to haunt him against the Bronx Bombers.  While having Cole on the other side gives me some pause concerning the over, I will have no qualms with laying some coin on the Yanks to come out ahead after the first five frames.

Swing for the Fences Bonus Player Prop: Giancarlo Stanton is on one of those white-hot tears and is absolutely scalding the ball lately.  Stanton has an 11-game hitting streak and is batting .400 during that span.  He has clubbed five home runs during that time.  Stanton has seven home runs already off right-handed pitching this season.  He is at +240 on FanDuel Sportsbook to hit a home run.

1:10 p.m. Tigers (Spencer Turnbull) at Red Sox (Nathan Eovaldi) – Red Sox Money Line (-210) for 1 RWbuck.  You didn't think I'd miss an opportunity to bet against the Tigers, did you?  I love some of Detroit's minor league prospects, and at some point I do believe they will get back to playing some decent baseball.  This season, though, will not be that time.  The Tigers already have the worst record in baseball, are 5-13 on the road and face arguably Boston's best pitcher in the form of Nathan Eovaldi.  The surprising Red Sox are in first place in the American League East and have scored 16 runs in the first two games of this series.  They aren't losing two in a row to the Tigers.

Swing for the Fences Bonus Player Prop: J.D. Martinez has returned to form for the Red Sox after a dismal 2020 campaign.  Martinez is hitting .391 at home on the season, and has three multi-hit games in his last five outings.  In fact, Martinez is tied for the league-lead with 12 multi-hit games.  The odds for Martinez to collect at least two hits will be in your favor.

1:10 p.m. Rangers (Jordan Lyles) at Twins (Michael Pineda) over 8.5 runs (-115) for 1 RWbuck.   Speaking of over/unders, the Twins have hit the over 63 percent of the time this season, the top mark in the American League.  They face Jordan Lyles and his 7.39 ERA, as his journey continues as, well, a journeyman.  The over has hit in five of six games in which Lyles has pitched this season.  In addition, the Rangers have yielded the third-most runs in the American League.  Meanwhile, on the other end of the equation is Michael Pineda, who is bound to have a poor start sooner or later.  Pineda has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season for the Twinkies.  Yet Pineda's lifetime ERA hovers around 4.00.  His BABIP allowed this season is .203, which is absurdly low.  The league average is somewhere around .300.  As a result, Pineda is bound for some regression.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jesse Siegel
Siegel covers college football, college basketball and minor league baseball for RotoWire. He was named College Sports Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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