Previous day: 2-3 -0.35
Overall: 35-14, +14.39
Normally I target one game on Sunday and look for that triple play of strikeouts over, first-five under on the opposing team, and an over on the total outs, but limited options on the board Sunday so we go with some more traditional picks.
Giants at Nationals, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Johnny Cueto vs. Joe Ross
The Giants have been the most profitable team for first five inning bets overall, and on the road they are 18-9-7. On the flip side, the Nationals have been one of the worst first five inning teams in a baseball with a 18-28-12 record, but 9-13-6 at home. Joe Ross has been one of the least profitable F5 (1st 5) pitchers on the season at 3-7-1. Everything adds up to getting the Giants in a great spot at incredible value.
BET: Giants 1st 5 innings -105 for 1 RW buck
Padres at Mets 1:10 p.m.
Chris Paddack vs. Joey Lucchesi
Say what you will, the Mets are in first place, 17-5 at home and 11-1 last 12. They are 5-0 in their last five at home and 6-1 against the Padres at home. They are also 6-1 in their last seven games as a home underdog. The Mets have gotten some players back from injury and have started to hit better in June (.257 vs. .230) vs. April/May. The run prevention for the Mets at home is incredible in which they have allowed more than three runs just twice in 22 home games. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup as the Padres struggle against the Mets and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games.
BET: Mets +117 for 1 RWbuck
BET: Padres under 3.5 (+120) for 1 RWbuck
Braves at Marlins 1:10 p.m.
Lopez has been awesome in his last four starts averaging 6.5 innings, but 7.3 innings per start in three home games with a 10.4 K/9. The Braves are third in strikeout rate for June at 27.4 percent and their power is neutralized in Miami. Lopez struck out six Braves in just four innings on April 13. Lopez has gotten better since then, he goes deeper in games, and the Braves strike out even more now.
BET: Lopez over 6.5 strikeouts (+158) for 1 RW buck
