MLB Betting: Thursday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Thursday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

There are some serious early season trends we need to factor in for Thursday's games. Favorites are winning at 62 percent this season and are 28-10 ATS the last three days while unders are hitting at a 61 percent clip on the year. This should come as no surprise given the truncated spring training, and while it could balance out over the course of the season, let's keep those numbers in mind as we dive into Thursday's card.

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (under 7.5, -105) - DraftKings

This is an excellent matchup between teams off to fast starts. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has looked like his former self in his first two start this year with a dominating 0.84 ERA and 0.66 WHIP with a 13:2 K:BB ratio. On the other side, Anthony DeSclafani takes the bump for the surprising Giants. DeSclafani has shown great control, and while he's been relatively hittable, he kept the ball in the park and minimized damage in his first two starts. Mets batters have hit only .170 against DeSclafani with Francisco Lindor doing most of that damage. The current Giants lineup does not have much experience against Carrasco, but the numbers are low. I see this as a very efficient, quick, low-scoring affair.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (under 8, -108) - Bet Rivers

Starters Dylan Cease and Zach Plesac have fared well against each other's respective teams in their careers and both are coming in with impressive starts to their seasons. Cease is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while Plesac is 0-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Combined, they have a 23:6 K:BB ratio, and I don't think this game is where any of that changes. The key to holding down the Cleveland attack is neutralizing Jose Ramirez, and Cease has done that. The White Sox have struggled to score runs and have the look of a team that will heat up as the weather heats up as well. Six of the last 10 games between these teams have been at or lower than this total, and it is getaway day for both teams. Given the early season trend to unders, I'm willing to lay the small price at Bet Rivers to see another low-scoring affair.

Toronto Blue Jays (-108) at Boston Red Sox  - FanDuel

Kevin Gausman looks to get right against the Tanner Houck and the Red Sox. Actually, Gausman hasn't been bad as he sports a 14:0 K:BB ratio in 10.2 innings. The Boston bats have slept through much of the early season, and we all know how potent the Blue Jays lineup can be. Much like the 6-1 result Wednesday, I see this as a quick and efficient afternoon victory for Toronto.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox   (under 9, -114) - BET RIVERS

See the previous blurb and add the fact that this is a getaway day for both teams. Again, I like to play early afternoon Thursday unders in general, and with the under trends so strong to start this season, we should continue down that path.

Season Record: 3-4, -1.66 units

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Eric  Timm
Eric is currently in his 19th season as a featured handicapper with Nelly's Sportsline, specializing in the NFL, College Football, and College Basketball. His positive demeanor coupled with a steady and measured approach has helped his clients attain both short and long-term success, making him one of the most respected handicappers in the Midwest.
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