This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
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Season 41-40 +15.38
Last April and May I rode the strikeout prop horse hard, and then backed away from it after the oddsmakers adjusted. This April and so far in May, it is all about betting unders and run lines. You will continue to see that trend from me until there is an adjustment like last year.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates - 6:35 pm EDT
I am going to bet the Dodgers -1.5 run line in these spots every single time. I also love getting the 8.5 run total which is great as I love the Pirates under. I would shop around for a 3 on this one. I am seeing a lot of -2.5 run lines on the Dodgers, shop hard for a -1.5 run line.
MLB Expert Pick #1 for Dodgers-Pirates – Dodgers -1.5 for 1 RW buck (PointsBet -135)
MLB Expert Pick #2 for Dodgers-Pirates – Pirates under 3 runs for 1 RW buck (PointsBet +100)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds 6:40 pm EDT
Once again the Reds are on the slate, so it's a must-play especially when there is a huge disparity in starting pitching matchups. The Brewers have been much better at home vs. road especially on offense with almost a 2-run differential in scoring. They recently destroyed the Reds in a three-game home series sweeping them and outscoring them 34-12. The Reds have started to score some runs as they have 40 runs in their last 6 games. I still think this is a spot where they get to Greene early and often and cover the run line. In his last start against the Brewers, he lasted only 2.2 innings and gave up 8 earned runs.
MLB Expert Pick for Brewers-Reds – Brewers -1.5 for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves 7:20 pm EDT
The Red Sox offense is one of the worst in baseball and Wright has been lights out this year. I expect Whitlock to put up a great performance as well. The Braves' offense has been middle of the pack so far.
Boston is averaging 3.3 runs per game so the 3.5 team total seems at least a ½ to 1 full run too high. They have just 6 home runs in the last 18 games which is unthinkable when you look at the names in their lineup.
MLB Expert Pick #1 for Red Sox-Braves – Under 7.5 runs F5 for 1.08 RW buck (FanDuel -108)
MLB Expert Pick #2 for Red Sox-Braves – Red Sox under 3.5 runs for 1.18 RW buck (FanDuel -118)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants 9:40 pm EDT
The Rockies are once again showing a huge difference in runs scored at home vs. on the road and the Giants have one of the worst hitting parks in baseball. The Rockies average just around 3 runs per game on the road so having them go under 3 tonight in a great pitchers' park is appealing to me.
MLB Expert Pick for Rockies-Giants– Rockies under 3 runs for 1.28 RW buck (FanDuel -128)
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 pm EDT
After seeing the D-backs' first 11 games, you would have though they were on the path of one of the worst teams in baseball. But they are 13-6 in their last 19 with a +15 run differential and its from the strong starting pitching. Much like when the Red Sox were home dogs last week and a strong play, I love the D-backs in this spot. The Marlins are 1-8 in their last nine and don't deserve to be road favorites against anyone except the Reds.