DraftKings MLB: Thursday Picks

DraftKings MLB: Thursday Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

PITCHERx

Nate Karns, SEA vs. CLE ($7,900): Karns is one of the better options in a very shallow pitching pool, despite the fact that he endured a rough patch in his last start. He'd pitched relatively well over his previous seven trips to the mound, and he draws a slumping Indians offense that's scored a combined two runs over the first three games of the series against Seattle. They also sport a 21.3 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and Karns brings 20-plus fantasy point upside any time he takes the mound.

Tom Koehler, MIA at MIN ($6,600): Rostering Koehler doesn't exactly give one warm fuzzies, but this is a pitching slate completely devoid of top-tier arms. The veteran righty has also actually pitched very well over his last six appearances, with four quality starts during that span, and only one home run allowed. He draws a Twins squad that strikes out 23 percent of the time, tying them for seventh-worst in the majors. Their .308 wOBA and .247 average against that handedness doesn't scare anyone off either, and Koehler actually has notched two of his three victories this season on the road.

CATCHER

Wilson Ramos, WAS at CWS ($4,000): Ramos is right up there with Jonathan Lucroy ($5,000) as the most offensively proficient catcher on the shorter slate, but he comes at a significant savings over the Brewers' backstop. His average is up to an outstanding .345 after extending his hitting streak to seven games Wednesday, and he has a very good .398 wOBA and 34.2 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitching. White Sox starter Miguel Gonzalez has proven more vulnerable to lefty bats overall, but he has still yielded a .322 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season, as well as 49 homers to that handedness over his four-plus major league seasons.

FIRST BASE

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. WAS ($3,600) :On the other side of the Nationals-White Sox matchup is Abreu, who has posted multi-hit outings in four of his last five games while hitting safely in eight of his last nine overall. He's shown some nice consistency lately with four double-digit fantasy point outings in his last five contests, and he draws a matchup against Gio Gonzalez, who has lost three straight decisions and given up six homers over his last four trips to the mound. He's also yielded all eight homers this year to right-handed hitters, along with a 35.2 percent hard contact rate. While Abreu has enjoyed more success overall against righties, he is posting a stellar 42.4 percent hard contact rate against lefties, meaning he may be due for an increase on his .281 BABIP against that handedness.

SECOND BASE

Neil Walker, NYM at MIL ($4,300): Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson is prone to giving up home runs, especially to left-handed hitters at Miller Park. Nelson has surrendered seven of the 11 homers he's given up this season to left-handed batters, with five of those seven coming at home. Lefty hitters also have a 37.8 percent hard contact rate against him, and Walker has eight of his 13 homers on the season and a .329 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He's enjoyed his time at Miller Park in the past as well, blasting five homers and driving in 16 runs there over the previous three seasons.

THIRD BASE

Kyle Seager, SEA vs. CLE ($4,200): Seager has slashed .556/.556/1.000 over nine at-bats against opposing starter Josh Tomlin, including four doubles. He also sports a .418 wOBA, .252 ISO and 43 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Tomlin has pitched well for the most part lately, and at first glance, he has been very tough on left-handed bats this season. However, a further look reveals he's greatly benefiting from the abnormally low .227 BABIP that being generated by lefty hitters against him, a figure that drops to an even more unsustainable .214 when facing them on the road. Tomlin's 4.98 FIP versus lefty bats on the road and the 34.2 percent hard contact rate he's yielded to them overall appear to imply that a regression is imminent, and Seager is certainly a good candidate to help kick-start that process.

SHORTSTOP

Manny Machado, BAL at TOR ($4,500): With a smaller slate and some value at pitcher, there's plenty of room to roster some elite bats. Machado is one such example, and he actually checks in a bit underpriced relative to production. His upside for both cash games and tournaments is above question, and his three games with double-digit fantasy points over the last seven is evidence of such. Like Seager, Machado also destroys right-handed pitching, as he's generated a .408 wOBA, .313 ISO, and 42.3 percent hard contact rate against that handedness this season. Meanwhile, Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has been heading completely in the wrong direction, having surrendered 20 earned runs in his last four starts. He gave up seven earned runs apiece in two of those outings, with both coming at Rogers Centre. That also happens to be a park in which Machado has slashed .309/.356/.511 with three homers and 14 RBI over the previous three seasons, furthering his appeal.

OUTFIELD

Yoenis Cespedes, NYM at MIL ($4,600): We continue with our Murderer's Row of bats with Cespedes, who makes for a nice mini-stack with Walker against long ball-prone Nelson at Miller Park. Cespedes has a .352 wOBA, .282 ISO and 36 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, with those figures rising to .391, .337, and 36.8, respectively, when facing that handedness on the road. The Mets slugger has also blasted 11 of his 15 homers on the season against right-handed pitching.

Adam Duvall, CIN vs. STL ($5,400): Duvall's scorching bat is one of the more prudent choices in either cash games or tournaments these days, as the Reds slugger has scored between 20 and 30 fantasy points in five of his last 10 games, a remarkable tear that's included six homers. He has a .387 wOBA, .369 ISO, 30 percent HR/FB rate and 37.7 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, with all of those figures seeing slight bumps when facing that handedness in his hitter-friendly home stadium. An even scarier prospect for opposing pitchers is the fact that Duvall may soon be due for a boost in that already-impressive production, as his .217 BABIP at home against righties can't help but improve as the season unfolds.

Jay Bruce, MIN vs. TB ($5,000): We'll pick on Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright again with Bruce, who has a .308/.386/.513 line over 39 career at-bats against him, along with two doubles, two homers and nine RBI. He also boasts a healthy .379 wOBA, .315 ISO and 41.2 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, and he has smashed 10 of his 13 homers on the season against them, with seven of those 10 coming at Great American Ballpark. Wainwright has certainly pitched better of late, but he still yields a .350 wOBA to lefty bats on the road, and was blasted by the Reds for 10 hits and seven earned runs in just over five innings earlier this season.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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