FantasyDraft MLB: Saturday Values

FantasyDraft MLB: Saturday Values

This article is part of our FantasyDraft MLB series.

PITCHER

Chris Tillman, BAL at KC ($17,700): Tillman scored 19.65 fantasy points over just five innings against the White Sox last Sunday in his season debut, and he now faces a Royals team that has a .280 wOBA at Kauffman Stadium, as well as a .283 wOBA and 21.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching overall.

Tanner Roark, WAS vs. PHI ($17,100): The Phillies have a bloated 25.4 percent strikeout rate on the road, along with an ordinary .306 wOBA. Meanwhile, Roark has already pitched effectively against Philadelphia twice this season, including his most recent start when he scored 20.50 fantasy points by allowing just two hits and no earned runs over six innings. He's also gone at least six innings in five of his seven starts this season.

INFIELD

Freddie Freeman, ATL at MIA ($9,900): Freeman draws a matchup against Edinson Volquez, who makes his return from the disabled list after sitting out with a thumb injury. Freeman has a .330 batting average, nine homers, .490 wOBA and 40.0 percent hard contact rate against righties, which dovetails nicely against the .399 wOBA and 48.2 percent hard contact rate that Volquez has yielded to lefty bats this season. He also has a 2.00 HR/9 and 5.36 xFIP against the first 46 batters he's faced at Marlins Park, while the Miami bullpen has yielded a .318 wOBA to left-handed hitters there. Freeman can potentially be the foundation of a nice Braves mini-stack against Volquez, considering that Tyler Flowers ($6,000) and Matt Kemp ($8,000) both have very favorable history versus the Marlins starter.

Chris Owings, ARI vs. PIT ($7,800): Owings, who has hit safely in eight of the last nine games, has a .416 wOBA, 28.2 percent line drive rate and 46.2 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching at Chase Field. That sets him up well for a matchup against Pirates starter Trevor Williams, who's yielded a .492 wOBA, 5.93 xFIP, 27.3 percent line drive rate and 31.8 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, including a .552 wOBA, 6.89 xFIP and 41.7 percent hard contact when facing them away from pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Victor Martinez, DET at LAA ($6,600): The switch-hitting Martinez has a .400 batting average over 23 career plate appearances against Angels starter Ricky Nolasco, who's enjoyed a bit of good fortune against left-handed hitters. Nolasco's impressive .267 wOBA against lefty bats at home is a bit exposed by a 5.31 xFIP and .231 BABIP, and he's also allowed a 43.3 percent hard contact rate over his last two starts. Meanwhile, Martinez has a .330 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road, along with a 46.3 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness overall. The fact that he only has one homer after hitting 27 last season is mystifying and partly explained by a big jump in his opposite field hit percentage, but with the significant boost in hard contact he's seen, he's bound to start knocking some out of the park.

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper, WAS vs. PHI ($10,800): Phillies starter Nick Pivetta has given up a .388 wOBA to a small road sample of left-handed bats, along with a 23.1 percent line drive rate and 46.2 percent hard contact rate to that handedness overall. Harper seems to be back in MVP form and has a .341 batting average, all 10 of his homers, .497 wOBA, .409 ISO and 36.8 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Phillies relievers have also struggled against lefty bats, generating a 4.78 ERA and giving up six homers over 106 plate appearances.

Keon Broxton, MIL vs. NYM ($8,000): Both starter Robert Gsellman and the Mets relief corps have seen right-handed hitters become an Achilles' heel, which makes the emerging Broxton particularly appealing. He's already boasting a .390 wOBA (including .393 against righties) at hitter-friendly Miller Park, along with a 47.8 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. He's been knocking the cover off the ball in May as well, posting a .412 batting average, .512 wOBA, 43.5 percent line drive rate and 47.8 percent hard contact over the first nine games of the month. Meanwhile, Gsellman has yielded a .424 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while the Mets' bullpen has yielded an NL-worst 5.65 ERA versus righty bats, along with a .351 wOBA, 12 homers and a 34.3 percent hard contact rate.

Manuel Margot, SD at CWS ($6,900): Margot has been a pleasant surprise for the Padres at the top of the lineup, while White Sox starter Dylan Covey has given up a .536 wOBA, 8.69 xFIP and five homers to the 63 righty batters he's faced this year. The majority of Margot's success has come against righties, against whom he's tallied a .319 wOBA on the season, including a .338 wOBA (and 27.8 percent line drive rate) this month.

UTILITY

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS vs. PHI ($9,300): Zimmerman has finally cooled off some in his last three games but draws a matchup that could heat him back up. Phillies starter Nick Pivetta has allowed a massive .581 wOBA, 31.8 percent line drive rate and 54.6 percent hard contact to right-handed hitters, while Zimmerman has compiled a .381 batting average, 10 of his 13 homers and a .498 wOBA (including .513 at home) against righty arms. The gravy train doesn't stop when Pivetta exits the game either, as the Phillies' bullpen has allowed a .363 wOBA and 2.1 HR/9.

Marcell Ozuna, MIA vs. ATL ($7,800): Ozuna has blasted Braves starter Julio Teheran for a .417 batting average, three homers and nine RBI over 36 career plate appearances, and he has a .365 batting average, .513 wOBA and 46.3 percent hard contact rate at Marlins Park. His body of work at home also includes a .407 wOBA, .309 ISO and 48.8 percent hard contact rate versus righties, while Teheran has given up 19 earned runs (including five homers) over his last four starts. Furthermore, the Braves' bullpen has given up a 5.64 ERA, 11 homers and a majors-high .372 wOBA to righty bats.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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