Editor's note: RotoWire is excited to welcome back Jeff Zimmerman and his new column, Leaderboard of the Week.
The two core hitter traits I focus on for talent changes are power and the ability to make contact. Often, there is a tradeoff between power and contact. As one increases, the other drops. In a few instances, both stats improve, and a true talent breakout could be occurring. Also, both stats stabilize quickly compared to other hitter stats, so a small change could likely stick.
I compared hitters with at least 50 PA in both halves of this season. I took all hitters with at least a 60-point jump in Isolated Power (ISO) and a three-point increase in Contact Rate (Contact%). I use ISO instead of all the StatCast metrics because it combines Exit Velocity, Launch Angle and Pull% all into one variable. Also, I included how much the batter's wRC+ changed. In all, 18 hitters met the two criteria, and all but one improved their overall game.
| Name | ISO Increase | Contact% Increase | wRC+ Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Shaw | .331 | 3.2% | 127 |
| Michael Harris II | .213 | 4.3% | 154 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | .176 | 4.2% | 86 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | .144 | 6.5% | 82 |
| Bryce Harper | .144 | 4.9% | 8 |
| Julio Rodriguez | .140 | 4.3% | 44 |
| Anthony Volpe | .129 | 4.7% | 25 |
| Coby Mayo | .118 | 7.8% | 46 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | .106 | 3.7% | -13 |
| Jack Suwinski | .098 | 14.0% | 74 |
| Isaac Collins | .098 | 3.1% | 65 |
| Michael Taylor | .093 | 6.9% | 8 |
| Lenyn Sosa | .088 | 7.0% | 42 |
| Nick Kurtz | .087 | 5.6% | 113 |
| Matt Wallner | .080 | 6.8% |
Editor's note: RotoWire is excited to welcome back Jeff Zimmerman and his new column, Leaderboard of the Week.
The two core hitter traits I focus on for talent changes are power and the ability to make contact. Often, there is a tradeoff between power and contact. As one increases, the other drops. In a few instances, both stats improve, and a true talent breakout could be occurring. Also, both stats stabilize quickly compared to other hitter stats, so a small change could likely stick.
I compared hitters with at least 50 PA in both halves of this season. I took all hitters with at least a 60-point jump in Isolated Power (ISO) and a three-point increase in Contact Rate (Contact%). I use ISO instead of all the StatCast metrics because it combines Exit Velocity, Launch Angle and Pull% all into one variable. Also, I included how much the batter's wRC+ changed. In all, 18 hitters met the two criteria, and all but one improved their overall game.
| Name | ISO Increase | Contact% Increase | wRC+ Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Shaw | .331 | 3.2% | 127 |
| Michael Harris II | .213 | 4.3% | 154 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | .176 | 4.2% | 86 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | .144 | 6.5% | 82 |
| Bryce Harper | .144 | 4.9% | 8 |
| Julio Rodriguez | .140 | 4.3% | 44 |
| Anthony Volpe | .129 | 4.7% | 25 |
| Coby Mayo | .118 | 7.8% | 46 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | .106 | 3.7% | -13 |
| Jack Suwinski | .098 | 14.0% | 74 |
| Isaac Collins | .098 | 3.1% | 65 |
| Michael Taylor | .093 | 6.9% | 8 |
| Lenyn Sosa | .088 | 7.0% | 42 |
| Nick Kurtz | .087 | 5.6% | 113 |
| Matt Wallner | .080 | 6.8% | 49 |
| Kyle Teel | .076 | 3.8% | 4 |
| Ramon Laureano | .075 | 3.2% | 47 |
| Gabriel Arias | .072 | 12.4% | 1 |
| Spencer Horwitz | .060 | 9.0% | 56 |
Here are my thoughts on a few of the players, with a focus on the ones who might be available in your league.
Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs
The 23-year-old rookie was given the third base job to start the season and failed miserably. After just a few weeks, he was batting .172/.294/.241 and demoted to AAA. He returned, had a couple decent weeks but continued to struggle until the All-Star break. Since then, he's batting .307/.338/.720.
Most of his improvement came from pulling the ball more. He went from a 14 percent Pulled Air% to 32 percent, the league's 10th-highest value among qualified batters. He increased his home runs from two in the first half to eight so far in the second half.
Shaw's power gains overshadow his increase in contact rate. He dropped his strikeout rate from 19.4 percent to 17.5 percent. With the huge power improvement, I'm sure he'll lead this offseason's hype train.
Coby Mayo, 1B/3B, Orioles
So far this season, Mayo's overall results are fantasy-irrelevant (.204/.280/.362, 5 HR, 1 SB). The 23-year-old is focusing more on more plate patience with a desire to make solid contact.
While Mayo's contact rate is up, his swing rate is down (46 percent to 44 percent). His strikeout rate has stayed steady at 26 percent, but his walks are up (7 percent to 11 percent), thereby pushing his on-base rate up over 40 points. With these offsetting adjustments, his batting average only improved from .203 to .205.
Like Shaw, Mayo's power increase has come from pulling the ball more (16 percent to 24 percent). He has hit four home runs in the second half compared to just one in the first half. He's not hitting the ball harder, just pulling it more.
Even if the changes stick, he would be a league-average hitter. Hopefully, he can continue to improve to be a legit fantasy contributor.
Lenyn Sosa, 1B/2B/3B, White Sox
The 25-year-old Sosa seems to be hitting his prime, with everything pointing up. In 578 plate appearances coming into the season, he hit 15 homers with a .229 average. This season, it's 17 homers with a .274 average in 411 trips to the plate. And the improvemant has continued throughout the season.
The improved contact rate dropped his strikeouts from 24 percent to 16 percent, with his batting average jumping from .267 to .291. Also, he's hit about the same number of home runs (nine vs. eight) in about a third of the plate appearances (298 vs. 113). Everyone needs power at this point, and Sosa is on a 40-HR pace in the second half. Add if possible.
Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers
In the NFBC, there were a total of 1,595 preseason drafts, including a ton of 15-team, 50-round draft-and-holds. Isaac Collins was drafted just four times. The entire analyst community whiffed on the 118th-best hitter. I can understand why, with him being 27-years-old with a 53 percent strikeout rate in the majors last year.
Even the Brewers didn't know who that had. Collins started in six of the first 28 games. He didn't become a regular until the middle of June. Since that point, the only event to keep him off the field was his wife having a baby.
Since the break, he's been on fire, recording a 1.000 OPS, the sixth-highest among qualified hitters during that time. Besides a .360 BABIP that should regress downward, his profile is legit. With the improved contact rate, his strikeout rate is down from 24 percent to 18 pecent, with his batting average jumping up from .259 to .348.
As for his power, it went from barely noticeable in the first half (.130 ISO) to a respectable level (.225 ISO). It doesn't look like he'll be a huge power contributor, but his profile of a decent batting average, ~20 steals and a few home runs makes him comparable to Steven Kwan, Nico Hoerner or Andres Gimenez.
Kyle Teel, C, White Sox
The 23-year-old rookie catcher is turning it on after predictably struggling in the first half (.232/.372/.290). He needed to work with the pitching staff, so I'm sure his hitting lagged. He is now in a groove and improving.
His power is up, but merely from nothing (.058 ISO) to nearly nothing (.167 ISO). He's always hit around a dozen homers in the minors, so that may be his upside.
Unlike most catchers, he provides some steals, with the chance of a dozen or so in a season. He has a combined nine steals between the majors and minors so far this year.
The team is even giving him more playing time. He started in 15 of the last 18 games, with four starts as the designated hitter. Over that stretch, he hit .259/.322/.407 with two homers and one steal.
A catcher with a .260 AVG, 12 HR and 12 SB should be considered in all two-catcher leagues. I think his 2025 roster rate will lag what it should be with so many dead teams. While he might not win a league, he's not going to lose it either.
Gabriel Arias, 2B/3B/SS, Guardians
Coming into the season, I saw 25-year-old Arias as a bench bat who could steal a few bases and hit some home runs. While Arias is showing improvement in each category, he's dreadful in a third one: swing rate. Of the 20 batters with a swing rate of 55 percent or higher, his 63 percent contact rate is the only one under 70 percent. He deserves his six percent walk rate, 32 percent strikeout rate, .228 average and .284 on-base percentage.
The free-swinging ways have continued into the second half. Even with the improved contact rate, his walk rate is down from six percent to three percent, while his strikeout rate is up from 31 percent to 33 percent.
The power increase started from near the bottom, but it's better. He's showing 15-homer power with full-time plate appearances. I'm just not sure how many more chances a guy with a career .278 on-base percentage will get.
