MLB Best Bets Today: Single Game Picks for Thursday, July 3
Welcome to July, everyone, where both the temperature and anxiety for your favorite MLB team soars! I know I just got done watching a stretch where my team's desperate need for starting pitching was exposed as I watched their lead in the NL Central shrink from 5 games up to just 1.5 ahead. On Thursday, I will highlight my Cubs' closest competitor as they do what they always seem to do: win games and stay competitive in the NL Central with a roster that is so "meh" it lacks a clear All-Star. Yet, the Milwaukee Brewers are 10 games over .500 and right in the thick of things. Let's check them out as they close out a three-gamer in New York against the Metropolitans.
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Top MLB Betting Picks for July 3
Milwaukee Brewers (+136 at FanDuel) at New York Mets 
These are two teams going in opposite directions, and they aren't necessarily the directions you'd expect in July. Losers of 13 of their last 16 games, the spendy Mets are in a massive and concerning tailspin that has cost them the lead in the NL East. The pitching has been abysmal, as is evident by their 6.28 staff ERA over the last 10 games, and the offense only makes guest appearances once or twice a week. Milwaukee, on the other hand, is 7-3 in its last 10 games, it has outscored opponents by 26 runs in that stretch. Thursday's pitching matchup is almost dead even as veteran LHP Jose Quintana (3.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) has been a God-send for the Brewers. LHP David Peterson (3.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) takes the hill for the home side with an identical ERA. The southpaw is coming off two rough outings in which he gave up 10 earned runs over a combined 8.2 innings. There is far too much value on the Crew to ignore.
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Brewers/Mets UNDER 8.5 (-120 at ESPNBet Sportsbook)
I'll be honest, there is very little value in this pick, but I do think it is a solid play. On one side, you have Quintana's recent success against a sputtering Mets offense. On the other, despite his recent woes, Peterson has been much better at home. In his last four road starts, Peterson has given up 5, 5, 3, and 3 earned runs over 22.2 IP; in his last four home starts, he's given up 0, 1, 2, and 2 earned runs over 28.1 IP including a complete-game shutout against the Washington Nationals on June 11. I see this as a low-scoring, fast-moving game to finish up the series.
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Brice Turang 2+ Hits (+370 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
After a very slow start, Turang has heated up of late. He had a 14-game hit streak snapped in Wednesday night's game, but he has recorded two or more hits in seven of his last 10 games. The last time he went hitless in a game (June 13 vs St. Louis), he came back with a 2-for-4 day the next day. I love the value on this prop.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Brewers ML (+136 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Brewers/Mets UNDER 8.5 (-120 at ESPNBet)
- Brice Turang 2+ Hits (+370 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
