This is truly one of the best times to be a baseball fan. Every game is an elimination game until the League Championship Series, and we have two to break down here. We weren't sure we'd get either of these yesterday, but the underdogs came through and extended their series. That gives us the two NL matchups to discuss, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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Pitching
Tyler Glasnow, LAD vs. PHI ($9,900)
Picking pitchers on these postseason slates is like playing darts blindfolded, but Glasnow looks like a decent option as a home favorite. The limited pitch count over his last two appearances is concerning, but we're talking about a guy who had a 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 rate during the regular season. He also averaged 30 FanDuel points per game while providing a 2.77 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9 rate at home. He had a home start against the Phillies last year and dropped 46 FD points in that gem. That's why LA is a -130 favorite in a game with a 7.5-run total.
If we had to pick a second pitcher, Freddy Peralta ($9,300) looks like the best option against the Cubs. He finished the year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 rate while scoring at least 30 FD points in three of his four matchups with the Cubs.
Top Targets
Mookie Betts, LAD (vs. Cristopher Sanchez) $3,700
The former MVP just had one of the worst seasons of his career, but he was unbelievable in the closing months. Mookie finished the regular season with a .376 OBP, .516 SLG and .892 OPS across his final 47 games. Those numbers are eerily similar to his career norms, and it's carried over into the postseason with a multi-hit outing in three of five fixtures. The icing on the cake is that Betts has the platoon advantage against Sanchez, sporting a .394 OBP and .957 OPS against lefties since 2023.
William Contreras, MIL (vs. Matthew Boyd) $3,200
We had Contreras in a similar spot in my last article, and he rewarded us with a dinger. We're going right back to that well because he finished the season just as strong as Mookie. Contreras closed the season with a .380 OBP and .890 OPS across his final 52 outings. He's also slaughtered southpaws throughout his career, compiling a .426 OBP and 1.012 OPS against them since 2023. The BvP numbers are brilliant too, with Contreras collecting a .500 AVG and 1.400 OPS in 10 at-bats against Boyd.
Bargain Bats
Andrew Vaughn, MIL (vs. Matthew Boyd) $2,900
We had Contreras and Vaughn in a stack against the Cubs on Monday, and both players delivered great performances. Vaughn also homered in that game, and he has completely resuscitated his career since being traded to Milwaukee a few months ago. In fact, he had a .375 OBP, .493 SLG, and .860 OPS in his 64 games with the Brew Crew. That's why he typically bats fourth or fifth, and he'll surely have a prominent spot against a struggling southpaw. We'll dive into Boyd's subpar statistics in the Stacks To Consdier section, but Vaughn had a .359 OBP and .853 OPS against left-handers this year.
Enrique Hernandez, LAD (vs. Cristopher Sanchez) $2,600
It doesn't really make sense, but something changes with this guy when the lights are the brightest. Hernandez has been a .700 OPS bench player throughout his career, but has performed at an All-Star level in the playoffs. The utilityman has played 90 career postseason games, generating a .280 AVG, .516 SLG, and .867 OPS. It's difficult to understand why that happens, but it always puts him in a prominent spot in this LA lineup behind a bunch of superstars. He's also been much better with the platoon advantage in his favor, accruing a .782 OPS against lefties throughout his career. That doesn't even take into consideration that he got on base three times on Wednesday while recording a multi-hit game in two of LA's first four playoff games.
Stacks to Consider
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (Boyd): Christian Yelich ($3,800), Jackson Chourio ($3,700), Contreras ($3,200), Brice Turang ($3,200), Vaughn ($2,900)
It's nearly impossible to stack on a slate like this with pitchers having such short leashes, but Milwaukee versus Boyd is easily the best matchup on the board. This Brewers offense finished the season ranked second in OBP and third in runs scored. That's scary with how much Boyd has struggled recently, allowing six runs across 0.2 innings in his most recent meeting with the Brewers. He also closed the season with a 6.08 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across his final seven starts.
Our favorite Brewer bats are the two guys mentioned above, but there are plenty of other options. Yelich had 29 homers and 16 steals in another stupendous season while scoring at least 9.2 FD points in all three games of this series. Chourio finished with a 20-20 season while collecting a .357 OBP and .832 OPS against lefties throughout his career. Turang was tremendous in the final months of the regular season, tallying a .399 OBP and .979 OPS since August 2.
