MLB Picks: Free Expert MLB Picks for Friday, July 28

MLB Picks: Free Expert MLB Picks for Friday, July 28

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

Best MLB Bets Today: Free Expert MLB Picks for Friday, July 28

Season: 68-79-1 -34.99 units

Prior Article: 3-2  -0.07 units 

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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

I have been looking into this type of betting play lately with pretty good success. It looks like the OVER in the first 3, 5, and total game in a situation where the starting pitcher is having a bad run.

This is the case with Mitch Keller for the Pirates and his history against this Phillies lineup. Everything lines up nicely tonight for the Phillies to score a lot of runs and early.

Over his last 7 starts, Keller has a 5.27 ERA over 41 innings with a 36:14 K:BB, and 7 homeruns allowed. He has gotten rocked in his last two starts for 6 and 8 earned runs.  This Phillies lineup has a 27 for 61 H/AB history against Keller. 

MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Pirates

  • Phillies OVER 1.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +110)
  • Phillies OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
  • Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)

Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants  

The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball with a 15-5 record over their last 20 while the Giants are just 10-10 last 20, and 15-15 last 30. There is a big park shift and facing Logan Webb tonight is a tall task, but we are getting PLUS money on the Sox here with Kutter Crawford on the bump. I expect a lower scoring close game with Boston continuing their strong play. 

MLB Best Bets for Red Sox at Giants

  • Red Sox ML for 1 unit (PointsBet +125)

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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals  

I love picking on the worst teams in baseball and the Royals qualify as that. They are 2-8 last 10 and 4-16 last 20. Sonny Gray has owned the Royals in two starts this season for 11 innings and 1 earned run. The Twins lead the season series 9-1 and 58-25 (5.8-2.5 runs per game) for a 3.3 run differential. 

Brady Singer got rocked in his only start this year against the Twins for 8 earned runs in just 2.2 innings. The Twins are averaging 5.9 runs per game over their last 13. 

MLB Best Bets for Twins at Royals  

  • Twins -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
  • Twins OVER 5.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Phillies OVER 1.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +110)
  • Phillies OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
  • Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
  • Red Sox ML for 1 unit (PointsBet +125)
  • Twins -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
  • Twins OVER 5.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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