When we last chatted, I had the Tigers and Guardians all lined up for a sweet 3-0 day... and then it rained in Cleveland. Most unfortunate. Today, I'm back with a look at two afternoon games and one evening game, all of which have good situations and value in my view. And, last but not least, we have the good mojo of my mom's something-2nd birthday! Happy birthday to one of the nicest and most caring women on the planet!
San Francisco Giants at 
Philadelphia Phillies
The Giants send out ace Alex Cobb looking to avoid the three-game sweep in Philly. The Phils counter with Michael Lorenzen, who was battered in his last start following his no-hitter. He is now back on schedule and is likely somewhere between the 9/0/0 and 3.1/8/6 lines he's posted in his two starts with the Phillies. The Giants are a proud franchise that is in the thick of the race and will do all it can to avoid the sweep. I thought hard about taking the Giants on the ML, but didn't love the value with the way Bryce Harper and the rest of the Phils are hitting the ball. I suspect we see Cobb rise to the occasion and do what he can to keep his team in the game while Lorenzen gives his squad a quality start at home. All of that equals a strong under scenario, to which there is value.
MLB Best Bet: Giants/Phillies UNDER 9 (+115) @ DraftKings
Miami Marlins at 
San Diego Padres
This has not been a stellar year for last year's NL Cy Young Award winner, but Sandy Alcantara has shown some signs of getting back to where he was as the year has progressed. In his last five starts, Alcantara has provided four quality starts ,including starts of nine, eight and nine innings pitched. These are the first times he's completed at least eight innings since May. Against current San Diego batters, Alcantara has given up only seven XBH in 107 AB, and the Padres are still the Padres: big names, mediocre results. These teams have very similar current form over their last 10 games and with Alcantara heating up for the stretch run, I like the value on the Marlins today.
MLB Best Bet: Marlins ML (+114) @ DraftKings
Toronto Blue Jays at 
Baltimore Orioles
When initially researching this game, I was all over the Orioles ML... and then I saw what Toronto batters have done to Orioles starter Dean Kremer in his career: 14 XBH in 136 collective AB. That includes four dingers to Vladimir Guerrero. And while not to that level, Baltimore has hit Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman well. Neither starter has been exceptionally hot and both teams have very talented and deep offenses. The O's have gone over today's total in five of their last six games while the Jays have done so in three of their last five games. The value and the situation favors fireworks tonight in Camden Yards.
MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 8 (+110) @ BetMGM
Wednesday MLB Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 23:
- Giants/Phillies UNDER 9 (+115) @ DraftKings
- Marlins ML (+114) @ DraftKings
- Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 8 (+110) @ BetMGM
