MLB Bets Today: Expert Picks and Player Props for
July 19
The All-Star Break has come and gone and we now enter the dog days of summer where teams begin to signal whether they are buyers or sellers down the stretch. And while that is an important factor when handicapping games in July and August, context and value is important as well. Players on teams that are sellers are still prideful professionals who will play hard and surprise teams occasionally. Additionally, buyers with big leads don't need to win every game and can take their foot off the gas from time to time. If we can project those teams early, we may get value before the lines adjust. Today's selections involve six teams who are likely buyers or neutral and are still playing hard for the postseason. And I see some good value with some excellent road underdogs.
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Milwaukee Brewers at 
Philadelphia Phillies
The Brew Crew comes in atop the NL Central while Philly sits well behind the Braves in the NL East, but smack in the middle of the Wild Card race. Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has been solid in the rotation and has fared well in limited exposure against the Phillies' lineup. Likewise, Cristopher Sanchez has fit into the Philly rotation well and the Brewers have only two collective ABs against him. The Phillies are on a four-game home win streak, but Milwaukee is 26-22 in road games, with both teams having winning records and outscoring their opponents by five runs over their last 10 games. Both teams are playing well and are more closely matched than this line indicates. I can't ignore the value on the Brewers in this one.
MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee ML (+150) @ DraftKings
Arizona Diamondbacks at 
Atlanta Braves
Nobody is shocked to see Atlanta running away with the NL East, but nobody predicted the DBacks to be this good this quickly. Arizona is hanging right there in the NL West, 2.5 games behind the Dodgers and one game behind second-place San Francisco. Fresh off a crazy 16-13 affair last night to snap a four-game losing streak, the Snakes send Ryne Nelson to the bump to take on Charlie Morton. Interestingly, Nelson's home/road splits are quite favorable to the road side as he has given up just six runs in total over his last five road starts (30.2 IP). He has held the Braves' lineup in check so far in his career allowing only three XBHs, none of them homers. Arizona batters haven't smacked Morton around by any means, but they have held their own, particularly Christian Walker (3-7, HR, 3 RBI, 1.429 OPS vs. Morton). Like the game above, these teams are far more closely matched than the line says. I will also have a few doubloons on the under here as well.
MLB Best Bet: Arizona ML (+190) @ FanDuel
Minnesota Twins at 
Seattle Mariners
These teams will be fascinating to watch down the stretch. The Twinkies sit atop the atrocious AL Central and may have to do nothing to improve their team to maintain their lead other than stay healthy and consistent. The Mariners are a different story as a team with high expectations facing a nine-game deficit and three teams ahead of them in an ultra-competitive AL West. Tonight, Kenta Maeda toes the rubber for Minnesota with Seattle countering with Luis Castillo. At first glance, that is quite a pitching mismatch, but Maeda's numbers are inflated a bit by an ugly 3 IP/11 H/10 ER performance in the Bronx that ultimately led to a lengthy stay on the DL. Since coming back June 23, Maeda has a 2.70 ERA over four starts and could prove to be a key "addition" for the Twins down the stretch. Both teams come into this one in similar form over their last 10 games and, once again, I see these teams as much closer than today's line indicates.
MLB Best Bet: Minnesota ML (+130) @ DraftKings
Wednesday MLB Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 19:
- Milwaukee ML (+150) @ DraftKings
- Arizona ML (+190) @ FanDuel
- Minnesota ML (+130) @ DraftKings
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the MLB odds page on RotoWire.
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