This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
I can't complain about another 3-1 week in my last piece, but the one defeat was so disappointing. We had Drew Rasmussen to clear 17.5 outs, but Tampa pulled him after five scoreless innings, despite allowing just one hit on 79 pitches. Things like that are completely unpredictable in baseball, and we'll continue the process and keep churning out the winners. That 3-1 week now has me at 28-9 for the season, and I really couldn't have asked for better results since this is my first season on PrizePicks. We'll look to keep that momentum here, so let's get started with a contrary selection.
Use Promo Code "ROTOWIRE100" to receive a bonus on a deposit.
Check out our Prize Picks Tool Page as well.
Mick Abel, PHI vs. CHC: More Than 4.5 Hits Allowed
All the chatter is about how special this kid has been, but the advanced statistics tell a different story. The 0.79 ERA and 0.71 WHIP are beyond impressive (on the surface), but it's less impressive since it was against Pittsburgh and Toronto. What's really concerning is that Abel is surrendering a 63.3 percent hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity north of 95 mph. Those hard-hit metrics will come back to bite this rookie, and this is the sort of matchup that can kickstart that negative regression.
Pitching in Philly is already a nightmare for most pitchers, but it's truly concerning against an offense like the Cubs. Chicago sits fourth in OBP, third in wOBA and second in runs scored. That's why we're looking at a sky-high 9.5-run total, with the Cubs projected to score nearly five runs. They should easily reach five hits against the starter if they match those five runs, especially with how poorly Abel has been at limiting hard contact.
Lance McCullers, HOU vs. CWS: More Than 6.0 Strikeouts
We had McCullers as one of our winners last week, and we're going right back to the well. This former stud has returned to the strikeout maestro we know and love, with McCullers maintaining a 2.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 14.9 K/9 rate across his last three starts. That strikeout stuff is what really matters when clearing this prop, and he should be able to reach it across just four innings if he maintains that ridiculous rate.
Strikeout pitchers like this can get swings and misses against any lineup, but it's much easier in a home matchup with Chicago. The White Sox have been one of the worst lineups over recent years, ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last season. They're also posting a 23 percent strikeout rate this year, with McCullers entering this matchup as a -200 favorite. Whether you're playing on PrizePicks, playing DFS or gambling, be sure to invest in McCullers in this matchup.
Mitch Keller, PIT vs. MIA: More Than 18.5 Recorded Outs
I was hoping that we'd see this number at 17.5 outs, but we trust Keller to clear this total either way. This righty has sneakily been one of the best inning eaters all season, completing at least 18 outs in six straight outings. He's also got a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in that span while finishing at least 18 outs in all but three starts this year. That looks even better when examining his home numbers, as he owns a 3.35 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at PNC Park over the last three years.
All of those amazing averages tell us that Keller should cruise to a quality start, but we could get even more in a matchup with Miami. Much like the White Sox and Rockies, the Marlins rank in the bottom five in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last year. That was on full display in Keller's first start of the season, throwing six one-run innings on just 86 pitches. He was limited to just 86 pitches because it was his first start of the season, but 100-plus is in play since Pittsburgh didn't even get five innings from their starter on Monday.
Heliot Ramos: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
It's sad that I have to recommend opposing players against my Rockies on every slate, but that's just the brutality of baseball. Colorado has one of the worst teams ever, with the Rockies ranked last in ERA and WHIP. Carson Palmquist hasn't done anything to help those atrocious averages, accruing an 8.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP across four starts this season. That's horrifying in a place like Coors Field, with San Fran projected to score over six runs in this stupendous spot.
If the Giants are going to flirt with double-digit runs, Ramos will do damage in the heart of their lineup. The slugger has a .294 AVG, .360 OBP and .844 OPS in a breakout campaign. He's also got a .356 AVG, .556 SLG and .987 OPS across his last 11 outings, clearing this prop in eight of those. We didn't even mention his superb splits, sporting a .376 OBP, .592 SLG and .968 OPS against southpaws since his call-up.
