This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
MLB PrizePicks
I had another solid showing in last week's article, but the one loss in the 3-1 week was a squeaker. Spencer Strider was one of our picks to throw fewer than 6.5 strikeouts, but he picked up his seventh strikeout in his final out of the game. He threw just 90 pitches across 4.1 innings, so the process was right there for another 4-0 week. That brings my season record to 25-8, which equates to over 75 percent. That's all I could hope for when recommending PrizePicks plays, and we'll look to that momentum rolling here.
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Tuesday's Top PrizePicks Plays
Lance McCullers, HOU at PIT: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
McCullers has been all over the map this season, but he's actually quietly had a good year outside of one stinker. The righty has allowed three runs or fewer in four of five starts, sporting a 2.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 13.0 K/9 rate in those outings. That elite strikeout rate is the most important factor in clearing this prop because he only needs to complete four innings at that rate to clear it. It's not a flukey number either because McCullers has a 27 percent strikeout rate throughout his career.
That strikeout stuff would make McCullers an interesting choice against anyone, but Pittsburgh is one of the best matchups in baseball. Not only is PNC Park a pitcher-friendly field, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. The Pirates rank 27th in OBP, 29th in runs scored, 28th in wOBA and 24th in K rate.
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. ARI: Fewer Than 6.5 Strikeouts
This is just something that we have to go back to. It's funny that it killed us last week, but we already talked about how the process was correct in that selection. Strider simply hasn't been the same guy since returning from an injury two years ago, posting a 5.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across those five starts. He's also yet to throw more than eight strikeouts in any of those, failing to reach this total in three of those five outings.
While we do think Strider will clear this prop regularly in the future, he's still likely to be limited in his return from an injury. That's horrifying against a team like Arizona, with the Diamondbacks ranked in the top five in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last season. One of Strider's five starts was actually against Arizona, with the righty allowing five runs across four innings while recording just four strikeouts.
Carlos Correa, MIN at ATH: More Than 5.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Jacob Lopez)
Correa was one of the worst hitters through the opening two months, but the former All-Star is starting to find something at the plate. Before going hitless on Sunday, Correa had a hit in seven of his first eight starts off the IL, compiling a .346 AVG, .414 OBP, .769 SLG and 1.183 OPS in that span. The most important factor is that he has the platoon advantage against Lopez, as he's tallied a .282 AVG, .363 OBP, .533 SLG and .896 OPS against lefties since 2023. That OPS is above 1.100 this year in his 35 at-bats against southpaws.
One of the biggest reasons we like Correa is that he faces a subpar southpaw. The Athletics' arm has an 8.74 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his three starts this season. A seven-inning shelling in his most recent outing plummeted those numbers, but facing a resurgent Twins lineup could put Correa in line for RBI opportunities all night long in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.
Drew Rasmussen, TB vs. TEX: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
There's this false narrative that Rasmussen can't go deep into games because of his injury history and promotion from the bullpen, but that's silly. This righty has proven to be one of the best starters in the AL in his return from action, amassing a 2.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP this season. Most importantly for this pick, Rasmussen has completed at least 15 outs in 10 of 11 starts while completing at least 18 outs in three straight outings.
That sort of consistency makes him a tremendous option against Texas' terrible offense because they can't do anything right now. The Rangers rank 27th in runs scored, 28th in OPS, and 29th in wOBA. That's hard to fathom, but it's some easy outs with how guys like Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien are swinging the bat. Not to mention, eight of Rasmussen's starts have been at home this season.
