This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Last week was one of my best showings of the season, going a perfect 4-0 in my Tuesday piece. That brings my season record to 22-7 in PrizePicks plays, and I couldn't be happier with those results. I don't expect to maintain that for the remainder of the season, but the PrizePicks props are really sticking out right now. There are four more picks I feel confident about today, so let's go ahead and get into it!
Use Promo Code "ROTOWIRE100" to receive a bonus on a deposit.
Check out our Prize Picks Tool Page as well.
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. PHI: Fewer Than 6.5 Strikeouts
This is probably a pick we'll make in the opposite direction in the near future, but Strider is not himself yet. It's easy to understand why, because he's only made four starts over the last two seasons. It would take any pitcher time to adjust to that, with Strider sporting a 5.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 rate this season.
There's no doubt that Strider has the ability to clear seven strikeouts when looking at the past, but his slow start is unlikely to get much better against a team like Philly. The Phillies rank fourth in OBP and seventh in runs scored while posting a low 20 percent K rate. They're also traditionally much better at home, with Philly projected to score 4.5 runs in this game. Not to mention, Strider threw just 75 pitches in his return to action last week, and it's unlikely he'll get past 90 here. It would be tough for any pitcher to record seven strikeouts with just 90 pitches against an elite offense like this.
Tylor Megill, NYM vs. CWS: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
We've been using pitchers against the ChiSox for two years, and it'll be a tasty recipe for the foreseeable future. Chicago sits last in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last season while sitting 25th in K rate this season. It's far from surprising when looking at the lack of talent in this lineup, and it'll become even more difficult in a pitcher's park like Citi Field.
We would trust most pitchers to clear this 5.5-strikeout total against Chicago, but Megill has been a strikeout machine recently. The righty hasn't allowed more than four runs in any of his 10 starts, registering a 3.56 ERA and 12.4 K/9 rate. He's also cleared 5.5 strikeouts in seven starts this season, totaling a 1.88 ERA and 13.0 K/9 rate at home. That's why he's -280 favorite, with the ChiSox projected to score only three runs!
Joe Ryan, MIN at TB: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Ryan has always had the talent to be an ace, but it feels like he's finally putting it all together. The Twins righty has a 2.68 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in a breakout campaign, allowing one run or fewer in seven of 10 starts. Most importantly, Ryan has cleared 18 outs in four of his last five starts, amassing a 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 rate in that span.
A matchup with Tampa Bay used to be terrifying, but this offense is not the same anymore. The Rays rank 23rd in OBP, 24th in wOBA and 21st in runs scored. They were a much better offense last year, and Ryan held them to one run across six innings in their one matchup. We also don't mind that Minnesota has been using their bullpen heavily over the last five days, which should force Ryan to swallow more innings.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. COL: More Than 7.5 Fantasy Score (vs. German Marquez)
I actually thought PCA wouldn't be a fantasy-relevant player, but he's proved me wrong. The stud defender is one of the league leaders in home runs, steals and RBI, with Crow-Armstrong accruing a .286 AVG and .891 OPS. He's even hotter right now, posting a .326 AVG and 1.062 OPS across his last 36 games.
Using any bats against Colorado is a good idea because the Rockies rank 29th or 30th in ERA, WHIP and xwOBA. Marquez hasn't done much to help those nightmarish averages, accumulating a 7.66 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. That's horrifying against the highest-scoring offense in baseball, and we didn't even mention PCA's splits. Crow-Armstrong has a .314 AVG and .975 OPS against righties this year, surpassing a 7.5 fantasy score in nine of his last 14 fixtures.
