NL FAAB Factor: Not a Sorry Charlie

NL FAAB Factor: Not a Sorry Charlie

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your free-agent budget you should bid on them.

One size does not fit all, and we could never hope to encompass all league structures, so bids are based on:

12-team league (either NL or Mixed, we'll specify)
5x5 categories
$100 FAAB budget

Starting Pitching

Tanner Roark, Nationals - When A.J. Cole replaced Doug Fister (forearm) on the active roster, some connected the dots prematurely, figuring he would assume Fister's spot in the starting rotation as well. As it turns out, the club has tabbed Roark as its fifth starter with Cole serving in a long-relief role. Roark will slot into the rotation beginning Monday against the Cubs in Chicago, lining him up for two starts next week -- the second outing coming Sunday in Cincinnati. While the right-hander didn't fan a single batter in April (seven appearances, 12.1 innings), his strikeout rate in May is above 20 percent, and Roark's value is tied primarily to his win potential and contributions in the ratio categories anyway. Fister's facing an uncertain recovery timetable, so the door's open for Roark to run with a rotation spot for the foreseeable future, making him worthy of a relatively lofty bid in NL-only formats. Mixed: $7; NL: $16

Charlie Morton, Pirates - Like Roark, Morton is slated to

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your free-agent budget you should bid on them.

One size does not fit all, and we could never hope to encompass all league structures, so bids are based on:

12-team league (either NL or Mixed, we'll specify)
5x5 categories
$100 FAAB budget

Starting Pitching

Tanner Roark, Nationals - When A.J. Cole replaced Doug Fister (forearm) on the active roster, some connected the dots prematurely, figuring he would assume Fister's spot in the starting rotation as well. As it turns out, the club has tabbed Roark as its fifth starter with Cole serving in a long-relief role. Roark will slot into the rotation beginning Monday against the Cubs in Chicago, lining him up for two starts next week -- the second outing coming Sunday in Cincinnati. While the right-hander didn't fan a single batter in April (seven appearances, 12.1 innings), his strikeout rate in May is above 20 percent, and Roark's value is tied primarily to his win potential and contributions in the ratio categories anyway. Fister's facing an uncertain recovery timetable, so the door's open for Roark to run with a rotation spot for the foreseeable future, making him worthy of a relatively lofty bid in NL-only formats. Mixed: $7; NL: $16

Charlie Morton, Pirates - Like Roark, Morton is slated to make his first start of the year Monday before toeing the rubber again over the weekend. Unlike Roark, Morton is just returning from injury, having completed a three-start minor league rehab assignment after undergoing hip surgery late last season. He replaces Vance Worley in the Pirates' starting rotation. Whereas Roark's first two starts will come in hitters' parks, Morton will go in more pitcher-friendly confines (vs. MIA, at SD), though Roark is the better option long-term. At this point, we generally know who Morton is as a player; a serviceable, if unspectacular, groundball pitcher with a 15.6 percent career strikeout rate. There's still value to be had, just keep the expectations reasonable. Mixed: $2; NL: $5

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals - A setback with Garcia's surgically-repaired shoulder late in spring training cost the lefty a spot in the Cardinals' Opening Day rotation. Following a brief rehab stint, Garcia made his 2015 debut Thursday against the Mets, walking five yet managing to hold New York to two runs over seven innings. It was a step forward after some shaky results in the minors, but Garcia induced few swings and misses while working mostly with the fastball-cutter combo. He has an extensive injury history, so roster at your own risk, but Garcia should be good enough to warrant a rotation spot as long as he's healthy. Mixed: $4, NL: $8

Raisel Iglesias, Reds - The 25-year-old right-hander dominated Atlanta over eight scoreless innings May 13, allowing one run on two hits and three walks with five strikeouts. Iglesias gave up three times as many runs in a pair of subsequent relief appearances, but he's not allowing a lot of hard contact and is also missing a fair number of bats (10.1 SwStr%). He will get another opportunity to start Sunday against Cleveland, this time in place of Johnny Cueto (elbow), but Cueto said he expects to be able to take his next turn in the rotation. Don't let that deter you from pursuing Iglesias, however, as a strong showing against the Tribe could bump Jason Marquis from a starting role. Mixed: $4, NL: $9

Justin Nicolino, Marlins - The Marlins picked up their first win under new manager Dan Jennings on Saturday, but only after suffering two more significant losses earlier in the day. Both Mat Latos (knee) and Henderson Alvarez (shoulder) hit the 15-day DL, leaving a gaping hole in the Miami rotation. Nothing's official, but Nicolino seems like a good bet to fill one of the spots as he's posted a 2.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his first nine starts for Triple-A New Orleans (54.1 innings). Now, he's only fanned 30, and his FIP is almost two runs higher than his ERA, but Nicolino could return value in deeper mixed and NL-only leagues if you pick your spots. Mixed: $1, NL: $3

Williams Perez/Manny Banuelos, Braves - Having seen enough of Eric Stults, the Braves made the switch to Perez this week. Perez fared well in his first career start, permitting one run on six hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over five innings against the Rays on Wednesday. His stuff isn't all that special, but Perez has had a lot of success in the minors in recent years by keeping the ball low and on the ground, and he'll look to continue with that formula. If Perez were to slip up, lefty Manny Banuelos, who is 3-0 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 at Triple-A Gwinnett, could get his first major-league opportunity. Perez - Mixed: $1, NL: $2; Banuelos - Mixed: No, NL: $1 (early speculative bid)

Steven Matz, Mets
- The Mets will deploy a six-man rotation upon Dillon Gee's return from the DL this week, meaning there's no room for Matz and no guarantee he'll be up any time in the near future. That said, those who can afford to occupy a bench spot with a non-active player should give serious consideration to Matz, who is owning the Pacific Coast League through nine appearances (2.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 61:20 K:BB in 56.1 innings). Maybe he's not Noah Syndergaard, but Matz could be a difference maker for owners down the stretch. Mixed: $1, NL: $3 (early speculative bid)

Tsuyoshi Wada, Cubs
- Wada fanned seven of the first nine batters he faced Wednesday in his return from the disabled list. With Travis Wood in the bullpen and the Cubs not really having any major-league-ready arms pushing for time in the minors, Wada should be able to easily hold down a rotation spot barring an injury or trade. The lefty struck out 57 in 69.1 innings with the big club last year and should get more run support this time around. Mixed: $3, NL: $7

David Phelps, Marlins - While Phelps lasted only five innings against Arizona his last time out (four earned runs), he turned in quality starts in each of his previous five turns and certainly deserves consideration heading into a two-start week. As things line up now, Phelps will face the Pirates in Pittsburgh on Monday and then the Mets in New York on Sunday. Mixed: $2, NL: $4

Relief Pitching

Enrique Burgos, Diamondbacks - Manager Chip Hale said veteran submariner Brad Ziegler was "the number one guy" in line to take over as the D-Backs' closer role after Addison Reed was removed. Thus, it came as a pretty major surprise when the 24-year-old Burgos was called upon to nail down wins both Monday and Tuesday. He tossed two scoreless innings in those appearances to earn his first career saves, but Burgos may have fallen out of favor a bit after allowing two earned runs on two hits -- including a homer -- against the Cubs on Saturday to take the loss. Regardless, those scouring for saves should take note and hope the poor outing drives down his price. Mixed: $3; NL: $7

Pedro Strop, Cubs - Hector Rondon has struggled lately, blowing two of his last three saves chances and pitching to a 6.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP so far in May. Meanwhile, Strop has allowed two runs on three hits in his last eight appearances, and sits with a 23:7 K:BB for the season (20.2 innings). Jason Motte has struggled along with Rondon, and it appears Strop is next in line should Rondon fail to get it together. Mixed: $2; NL: $5

Catcher

Austin Barnes, Dodgers - Yasmani Grandal landed on the 7-day concussion DL on Saturday, and Barnes was brought up in a corresponding move. Although Barnes has fared well against Triple-A pitching this season (.290/.390/.430 in 118 PA), A.J. Ellis started Saturday and Grandal suggested he'll miss the minimum required by his DL stint. Thus, Barnes can probably be left alone unless you're desperate for a short-term fill-in option. Mixed: No; NL: $0

Travis d'Arnaud, Mets - A specific start date and location have not been announced for d'Arnaud's rehab assignment, but the 26-year-old is expected to head out to a minor-league affiliate by the middle of the week. Kevin Plawecki has done little, offensively, since d'Arnaud hit the shelf with a fractured right hand (.561 OPS), and d'Arnaud figures to immediately return to the primary role upon activation. Mixed: $21; NL: owned

First Base

Justin Bour, Marlins - Bour started at first base in Miami's last three games while batting near the middle the order, even as high as the cleanup spot Monday. Clearly, new manager Dan Jennings likes Bour, seemingly more than Mike Morse. Bour has reached 17 homers four times in the minors and is off to a 17-for-45 start with the Marlins this year (.378 average, .429 OBP), but he's ideally just a guy you throw out there against poor, soft-tossing right-handers. Mixed: $2; NL: $5

Ben Paulsen, Rockies - Paulsen's tenure with Colorado has gotten off to a great start, as he's hit safely in six straight games and chipped in a homer in Game 1 of Saturday's doubleheader. He's split time between first base and left field, and with Justin Morneau (head) and Corey Dickerson (foot) out, that figures to continue for Paulsen even with Wilin Rosario in the mix. The left-handed swinger's long-term future with the club is far from certain, however. Mixed: $0, NL: $1

Second Base

Matt Duffy, Giants - Casey McGehee seems to have fallen out of favor with manager Bruce Bochy. Enter Duffy, who started four straight games before sitting out Game 2 of Saturday's doubleheader against the Rockies. Duffy is not only hitting (.299/.330/.402), but he has multiple-position eligibility in certain formats. Check his eligibility in your league before settling on a bid, but Duffy has shown some pop and is driving in enough runs to be a fringe starter at second base in NL-only formats. Mixed: $1, NL: $3

Hector Olivera, Dodgers - Olivera passed his physical Tuesday and officially joined the Dodgers organization, nearly two months after his signing was first reported. According to reports, the 30-year-old is only expected to need 3-to-4 weeks in the minors before he's ready to contribute to the major league team. It's uncertain where he'll fit in with the Dodgers, but the front office may look to clear a path for him with a trade in the weeks ahead. Mixed: $0; NL: $1 (early speculative bid)

Shortstop

Wilmer Difo, Nationals - On the strength of his .315/.367/.520 batting line between High-A and Double-A, Difo has seen his prospect stock rise considerably since before the start of the season. However, the 23-year-old has not received a single start and has logged just two at-bats in almost a week since he was called up. Unless Anthony Rendon suffers another setback in his rehab, Difo may very well head down in short order for regular playing time, so he can probably be left to those in dynasty and keeper leagues. Mixed: No; NL: $0

Third base

Matt Reynolds, Mets - With David Wright shut back down and diagnosed with spinal stenosis, the Mets have been forced to take a close look at third base and second base yet again. One possibility is the club moves Daniel Murphy back to second and brings Reynolds up play third. Eric Campbell has completely flopped in his extended audition, while Reynolds has been able to drive the ball to the gap (14 doubles) and get on base at a nice clip (.346) at Triple-A Las Vegas. However, even with regular time, Reynolds' upside is marginal. Mixed: No; NL: $0

Outfield

Michael Taylor, Nationals - There's a lot of swing-and-miss in Taylor's game, which keeps his batting average relatively paltry, but he's a valuable source of speed and power. Jayson Werth was placed on the DL early in the week after being hit on the left wrist, the same wrist he broke in 2012, and as of Saturday the wrist was still too swollen for him to do much of anything. It's worth checking to see if Taylor is available in your league, even with the long-term uncertainty regarding his role. Mixed: $3; NL: $8

Junior Lake, Cubs - Ideally, Lake is strictly a short-end platoon/fourth outfielder, and the Cubs figure to keep him in that role if at all possible, but Chris Coghlan is really struggling. He had a hit and a walk Saturday, but Coghlan is just 12-for-66 (.182 average) so far in May and he sat in favor of Lake against a right-hander on Friday. If he starts seeing more time (with Chris Denorfia out), Lake could make for a nice, cheap source of power, but be aware that he's a major threat to drain your batting average. Mixed: $0; NL $1

Brandon Barnes, Rockies - Rather than let Drew Stubbs work through his struggles on the field with the major league club, the team swapped him out with Barnes after Chris Dickerson (foot) hit the shelf. It sounds like Dickerson may return on or shortly after his earliest possible activation date, but Barnes could be somewhat useful as a streamer when he's in the lineup at Coors Field in the weeks ahead. Mixed: No; NL: $0

Note: Got another player to discuss? Drop a line in the comments.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Clay Link
Clay Link is the MLB Editor at RotoWire. Clay won the overall championship in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational and finished top 10 in the NFBC Online Championship in 2018. He can be heard on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, MLB Network Radio and twice a week on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast during baseball season.
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