The Z Files: Ranking Top Outfielders

In a recent Tout Table, I asked my esteemed colleagues to rank five of the best fantasy outfielders: Fernando Tatis, Julio Rodriguez, Jackson Chourio, James Wood and Pete Crow-Armstrong. On the surface, it's not an especially meaty task. However, as usual, there is method to my madness. First, let's look at the results with some data to put the rankings in perspective. In full disclosure, the question was posed a few weeks ago, but the rest of season (ROS) and year to date (YTD) ranks are current through July 10. The ADP and ranks consider the entire player pool, not just outfielders.

Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's MLB Rest of Season Projections!

To make it easier to eyeball, here are the ranks relative to each other:

Asking to rank this quintet is akin to asking an underlying question about each:

• Will Chourio and Rodriguez experience a similar second-half surge as last season?
• Can Tatis stay healthy, and will he continue to steal bases at a career-high pace?
• Can PCA and Wood come close to sustaining the pace that landed them No. 1 and No. 2 among this group over the first half?

Below are my answers, but first my current projections on the group for the rest of the season:

Jackson Chourio: Hard-Hit Rate Concerns

Here are Chourio's monthly splits from last season and so far this year:

Chourio really didn't have a better second half; he struggled in April, then was solid for four months before slipping down the stretch. Last May might appear terrible, but the underlying metrics were solid. 

April this year was in line with last season's May through August, but since then Chourio hasn't been hitting the ball nearly as hard, and he's exhibiting horrible patience. My formulaic outlook is optimistic, but personally I'm not so sure. The drop in HardHit% is concerning.

The 21-year-old has volume on his side, batting primarily second for the team averaging the second-most runs per game of the five players in this discussion. Only the Cubs (PCA) score more runs per games than the Brewers. The Mariners (J-Rod) are next, followed by the Nationals (Wood), with the Padres (Tatis) at the rear.

Even with the volume consideration, if ranking by feel, I'd probably list Chourio last. I may have to override my ROS projection to account for a lower HardHit% than initially anticipated.

Julio Rodriguez: Another Second-Half Surge?

Last year, Rodriguez had a phenomenal final month, but was also stellar in July, albeit with fewer plate appearances. This season, his AEV and HardHit% are still solid, but a tick below last season's levels in the other months. The ROS algorithm anticipates Rodriguez will hit the ball harder over the second half, but again, I have my doubts. You may recall I began a study of this nature using strikeout rate but went down a rabbit hole and elected to backburner the study until the offseason. HardHit% is going to be part of the research. That is, how predictable is HardHit% based on previous seasons and year-to-date levels?

Ignoring the spreadsheet, my gut has the ROS projections on Rodriguez and Chourio as a tad too aggressive.

Fernando Tatis: Health Is the Only Obstacle

When the question was first posed, Tatis was well ahead of the field in projected ROS earnings, but the gap has narrowed considerably, as I was too aggressive with his playing time. I'm concerned about the health aspect since he's averaging only 124 games over the last three seasons. I'm probably too optimistic projecting Tatis for roughly the same playing time as the others, landing him around a career-high 154 games.

As a team, the Padres are middle of the pack in terms of steals, but Tatis is well on his way to establishing a new career-high mark. He swiped seven bags in April, fell to three in May before rebounding with seven more in June, and he has a pair already in July.

Tatis' expected batting average and SLG are in line with the past two seasons. His HardHit% and Barrel% are similar to 2023, with both trailing last season's career-best levels. However, the 26-year-old is pacing towards the lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate of his career.

Based on his longer track record at this level, and his underlying metrics being in sync with recent marks, Tatis is the safest of the group in terms of production, but perhaps the riskiest with respect to health.

James Wood: Buoyed By Elite HR/FB Mark

As demonstrated by his fourth-round ADP, much was expected from Wood this season. In our last roundtable, he was No. 57, but that was held back by my No. 75 rank. The average of my three colleagues was in lockstep with the NFBC ADP.

Looking back at my projections, I pegged Wood for 21 homers and 19 steals, with a .266 batting average. He's clearly convinced me I was wrong, especially with regard to his power.

Wood has improved every element contributing to home runs. He's fanning a bit less and lofting the ball more. His Statcast HardHit% and Barrel% are both better than last season:

This is clearly impressive, but there is a major concern. Sure, Wood is hitting more flyballs, but it's still at a low 30 percent rate. His power is being carried by a league-leading 32.9 percent home run per flyball mark. Aaron Judge's career level is 32.1 percent. Regression isn't a sure thing, and it doesn't punch a time clock, but Wood will be hard-pressed to maintain that elevated level after the All-Star break.

Prorating his current pace renders 16 more homers. My ROS projection calls for 14, so there is a slight slowdown baked in. It would be more, but I'm accounting for some lousy weather in the mid-Atlantic region through June, and the likelihood that temperatures rise, to help power the rest of the season. Even so, the projection for which I am least confident is Wood leading the Party of Five in homers over the rest of the season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong: Not Slowed Down By Lack of Walks

There is a sense that Crow-Armstrong strikes out too much, but he doesn't. His 23.4 percent mark is in line with last season's 23.9 percent level. Both are just a tick more than league average.

The concern is an aversion to free passes. Last season's 5.9 percent walk rate has shrunk to 4.4 percent. How can he steal bases if he isn't walking? The better question is, how can he steal if he keeps delivering extra base hits?

The other intriguing element of Crow-Armstrong's game is his elevated flyball rate. Over half of the balls he's put in play have been classified as a flyball. Only seven other qualified batters sport a higher FB rate, and Crow-Armstrong's BABIP is higher than any of them. This is important since flyballs that stay in the yard generally find leather, but Crow-Armstrong's speed helps him capture more groundball hits than his counterparts.

Based on the ROS projections, Crow-Armstrong is second to Tatis in both my rankings, and in the site's rankings. If Tatis were to get hurt, PCA would wear the crown. While the 23-year-old has done enough to convince me he can continue to produce while being allergic to drawing walks, it does add some risk to his profile. His range of outcomes is probably the widest of the quintet. For what it's worth, his power should get a similar boost as Wood's considering the weather in the Windy City has also been cruddy, and Wrigley Field usually plays smaller over the summer.

In Summary

Considering all five subjects are expected to be a top-25 overall player the rest of the way, the differences between them are fairly subtle, and yield varying expectations. There are a lot of factors to consider with each, perhaps leading to a trade opportunity. The improvements are incremental, but as an example, I rank Crow-Armstrong ahead of Wood and Chourio ahead of Rodriguez, while the Touts do the opposite. This puts a 2-for-2 trade on the table. 

Fred Zinkie, Jeff Erickson's Tuesday podcast partner talks about how a few small improvements can lead to a big upgrade. Instead of shrugging off a PCA for Wood deal as "who cares, they're both great", use any small difference as an avenue for one of the small changes... then find a couple more.