Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins, MLB Best Bet and Expert Picks for June 8

Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins, MLB Best Bet and Expert Picks for June 8

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Best Bets & Expert Picks
for Saturday, June 8

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
The Cleveland Guardians face off against the Miami Marlins in the second game of this three-game interleague series taking place in Miami. The Marlins won the first game 3-2 after scoring in the bottom of the eighth inning to take the lead yesterday, and they were able to hold off the Guardians in the ninth inning. It was a very surprising result considering how good the Guardians bullpen has been all season, and considering how good the Guardians have been all season. The Guardians are leading the AL Central division by three games and they are 40-22 on the season. They are 19-14 on the road and they are 25-14 against teams with losing records this season.  

They face the Marlins who are dead last in the NL East division at 22-41. That is tied with the Rockies for the worst record in the National League. The Marlins are 12-23 at home this season and 6-13 against teams with winning records. They are also the worst team in the league in terms of wOBA against lefties this season, but they were still able to win the game off the lefty Logan Allen last night.

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However, today the Marlins will be facing a righty in Ben Lively, who has had a career season so far this year. He has been unbelievable for the Guardians and he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his nine starts this season. He also has failed to pitch five innings just one time in those nine starts. He is 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA this season and he doesn't mind pitching on the road, going 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA. He will face Roddery Munoz from the Marlins, who is making just his fourth career start in the Majors. He allowed just two runs in five innings pitched to the Cubs in his first start, one run in six innings pitched to the Rockies in his second start and six runs in 4.2 innings pitched in his third start on the road against the Dodgers. Most notably, he has allowed six home runs already in just 15.2 innings pitched. The Guardians haven't been much of a home run team in the past but they are ranked 12th in the league this year with 68 home runs. The Guardians are ranked 13th in the league in wOBA against righties this season while the Marlins are ranked 24th.  However, the big thing to note here between the teams are the bullpens.
 

The Guardians have the best bullpen in the league, with by far the best bullpen ERA at 2.39. The Marlins' bullpen has been a lot better lately ranked 17th overall in bullpen ERA. The Marlins should also have everyone available in their bullpen after their off day on Thursday, and none of their relievers threw more than 12 pitches yesterday. The Guardians will likely be without Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith who have both pitched two games in a row. That is unfortunate because they have been two of the Guardians best relievers. However, the Guardians' bullpen is so stacked that they have plenty of options. They have seven relievers with an ERA at 3.81 or lower in their bullpen, so that's what I mean by they have plenty of options.

The Guardians have been playing well this season and I don't think they lose this series on the road to the Marlins.  I think the best play here is the Guardians to win this game.

BEST BET

Guardians ML -155 vs. Marlins (DraftKings)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Bollman
I am a data scientist and baseball analyst who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland before I moved to South Florida about five years ago. I went to Tulane University in New Orleans for both undergraduate and graduate school, and worked for the Tulane Baseball team as a Quantitative Analyst while working towards my Masters degree in Biostatistics and Data Science. I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays in their Player Development and High Performance departments out of graduate school and I am the founder and owner of my company Baseball with Bollman.
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