Series to Watch: Mets vs. Yankees

Series to Watch: Mets vs. Yankees

This article is part of our Series to Watch series.

The Mets are on the franchise's greatest winning streak in 25 years, having just completed a perfect 10-game homestand. They've run off 11 consecutive victories to seize the early lead in the NL East, a division that's shaping up to offer far more drama than anticipated before the season. Metropolitans are dropping like flies, from young cornerstones like Travis d'Arnaud to franchise foundation David Wright, and yet the orange-and-blue trudge forward, scoring the second-most runs in the National League and allowing the second-fewest in the circuit.

Their cross-city counterparts from the American League offer a stark contrast, as the Yankees are trying to cling to the remnants of a roster that was once the most powerful in all the land. Some past-prime players are experiencing a resurgence early this season, in which the Yankees find themselves at 9-7 and in an early tie for the AL East lead (along with two other teams). The Subway Series offers a surprising concentration of fantasy intrigue this weekend, particularly in the middle tier of the player pool.

v.

Game 1, April 24, 7:05pm EDT: Jacob deGrom vs. Michael Pineda

deGrom just continues to prove the doubters wrong. One of the biggest developmental concerns for a young pitchers is the almost inevitable loss of velocity, but the right-hander has actually stepped up his pitch speed by a half-tick to an average of 95 miles per hour on his fastball. It's especially rare to see such an increase in April, given that most pitchers

The Mets are on the franchise's greatest winning streak in 25 years, having just completed a perfect 10-game homestand. They've run off 11 consecutive victories to seize the early lead in the NL East, a division that's shaping up to offer far more drama than anticipated before the season. Metropolitans are dropping like flies, from young cornerstones like Travis d'Arnaud to franchise foundation David Wright, and yet the orange-and-blue trudge forward, scoring the second-most runs in the National League and allowing the second-fewest in the circuit.

Their cross-city counterparts from the American League offer a stark contrast, as the Yankees are trying to cling to the remnants of a roster that was once the most powerful in all the land. Some past-prime players are experiencing a resurgence early this season, in which the Yankees find themselves at 9-7 and in an early tie for the AL East lead (along with two other teams). The Subway Series offers a surprising concentration of fantasy intrigue this weekend, particularly in the middle tier of the player pool.

v.

Game 1, April 24, 7:05pm EDT: Jacob deGrom vs. Michael Pineda

deGrom just continues to prove the doubters wrong. One of the biggest developmental concerns for a young pitchers is the almost inevitable loss of velocity, but the right-hander has actually stepped up his pitch speed by a half-tick to an average of 95 miles per hour on his fastball. It's especially rare to see such an increase in April, given that most pitchers build velocity into the summer, and deGrom deserves an extra nod given the improvements that he made in-season last year to his stuff and mechanics.

Pineda has just 265 innings of big-league experience under his belt, spread from 2011 to this year, but he is a lightning rod of intrigue. Whether looking at his involvement in prospect challenge trades, undergoing major arm surgery, or taking a pregame soak in pine tar, Pineda always seems to be at the center of attention. He has been excellent when on the mound, and though his results on contact have been less than ideal this season, his 20:2 K:BB ratio is a better indication that Pineda can go inning-for-inning with deGrom in Friday's battle.

Game 2, April 25, 4:05pm EDT: Matt Harvey vs. CC Sabathia

In case you hit the 18-month snooze on your hibernation alarm, Harvey is back for 2015 and hasn't missed a beat. His stuff and delivery have nearly reached pre-surgery levels of excellence, including high-90s velocity that he releases right on top of the hitter, creating such high levels of perceived velocity that even quick-twitch athletes like Bryce Harper were consistently late on the trigger. In his first 18.0 innings back, Harvey has 24 strikeouts against a single walk.

Many of the stories surrounding Sabathia over the last couple of years have been focused on his velocity, which had dropped four full miles per hour between 2011 and 2014. Reports from spring training were that his pitch-speed was back to hitting 94 mph, serving as a positive indicator if his recovery from right knee surgery, but he must have left that velocity in Tampa because it didn't make the trip north with the club. His average velocity so far this season qualifies as the lowest of his career, including a fastball that has dropped below the hard deck of 90 mph and into the danger zone.

Game 3, April 26, 8:00pm EDT: Jon Niese vs. Nathan Eovaldi

ESPN has picked up this one for the national game, resulting in the late Sunday start that wreaks havoc on daily fantasy rosters. Niese has dodged bullets thus far in 2015, having surrendered 28 baserunners in 18 innings yet seeing just five of those men cross the plate (two of which were unearned). That's how Niese has achieved the rare feat of an ERA (1.50) that's lower than his WHIP (1.56). The southpaw will be able to minimize speedsters Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, as opposing baserunners are just 28-of-44 in attempted steals against Niese in his eight-year career.

Eovaldi has been a perpetual breakout candidate thanks to elite velocity and under the assumption that the miles-per-hour will eventually convert into strikeouts, but he has yet to meet the water-to-wine prophecy. His lack of an off-speed pitch has long been the culprit, and though previous attempts to add a changeup have fallen short, Captain Eo has fully integrated a splitter into his arsenal this season. The early results are mixed, but while everyone was worrying about his repertoire, Eovaldi went ahead and improved his pitch command, raising the grade on all of the arrows in his quiver.


Lucas Duda – A single-side masher, Duda has produced an OPS that's 226 points higher against right-handed pitchers than lefties, so keep that in mind when deciding whether to fit him into the roster against Sabathia. Duda burst onto the scene last year with his first 30-homer campaign, a feat that he accomplished in fewer than 600 plate appearances, and the steam engine has rolled right into 2015 with an early-season slash line of .351/.439/.526. He's only hit one bomb so far on the young season, and he will look to take advantage of baseball's best ballpark for left-handed homers when the Mets visit Yankee Stadium.

Michael Cuddyer – Cuddyer faces the usual parade of doubts that trail a hitter after he leaves Colorado, particularly a 35-year old player who is coming off a couple of performance-spike seasons in the mountains. He has hit well enough this year to keep the critics' voices down, but not so well as to keep the conversation to a whisper. His highest single-season batting average prior to joining the Rox was a .284 mark back in 2006, but from 2013 to 2014 he hit a collective .331/.385/.543, a pattern that effectively fans the flames of pessimism.

Curtis Granderson – The further we get from Granderson's days of abusing the Yankee Stadium dimensions, the less likely it becomes that the power is going to return. He posted consecutive seasons of 40-plus homers, including a career-high 43 long balls in 2012, but his power has since disappeared. His slugging percentage from 2013 to today is just .383, and though a .227 batting average is weighing down the slugging figure, an isolated power below .160 is an anomaly for a player who was above .200 for the vast majority of his career.

Eric Campbell – Campbell replaces the injured David Wright (hamstring) in the infield and has been hitting in the middle-third of the order. He's been a consistent on-base threat in the minors, with a career OBP of .382 that includes an exceptional walk rate of 12 percent. He doesn't have the power or speed numbers to make a big dent in most roto leagues, but DFS gamers or those that have an on-base category may want to target the affordable Campbell as an under-the-radar source of value.


Jacoby Ellsbury – Remember that year when Ellsbury led the majors in total bases (including 32 homers), posted a .321/.376/.552 slash line, exceeded both 100 runs and 100 RBI, and then topped it off with 39 steals? That was 2011. Now do you want to guess how many times he's topped 15 homers since? Zero. How about a .450 slugging? Zero. 100 runs or 100 RBI? Nope on both counts. He still possesses the rare combination of power and speed, as evidenced by last year's 16 homers and 39 steals, but the image of him putting together a full season that showcases both skills is fading from memory.

Mark Teixeira – The guy has 10 hits, and nine of them have gone for extra bases, yielding a slash line that's right out of the Rob Deer handbook at .196/.323/.569 in 15 games. The power and patience are a welcome site for a player who hasn't displayed either skill with any kind of regularity since 2011. Recurring wrist issues have tarnished his bat-to-ball abilities in past seasons, so the relative power surge could be an indicator of his current health or it could just be a random rush of pitches.

Alex Rodriguez – "Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. We have the technology. We
have the capability to make the world's first bionic man. Better than he was before: better, stronger, faster." - If they could do all that in the 1970's for $6 million, imagine what today's scientists could do with a quarter-billion.

Brett Gardner – Gardner's power infusion last season was truly a surprise, with 16 homers that doubled his highest previous season total. That said, his runs and RBI were essentially the same as the year prior despite the extra handful of fly balls that cleared the wall, and there is little indication that the extra pop was a repeatable skill. His steals were at an all-time low in 2014, checking in with just 21 swipes, and his fantasy managers have to hope that he compensates for the lack of deep flies with some additional thievery on the base paths.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Doug Thorburn
Doug started writing for RotoWire in April of 2015. His work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and RotoGrinders, and as the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn's expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball. His DraftKings ID is “Raising Aces”.
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