This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
CWS Best Bets Today: Arizona vs. Louisville
Happy Father's Day to all the papas out there! Your reward this year was a MONEY start from LSU's ace Kade Anderson. The potential top five '25 pick went out and SHOVED on the biggest stage against one of the nation's top offenses, allowing just 1 ER over 7 IP (7 K's). The Tigers victory completes the 1-0 start for our big three teams in LSU, Coastal, and Oregon State.
The Sunday slate reverts back to the Bracket 1 matchups where we have an elimination game between Arizona-Louisville and a monster 1-0 battle between the Chanticleers and Beavers. As usual, I'm expecting a couple of tight contests.
Arizona Wildcats (-120) vs. Louisville Cardinals (-106) | Total: 9.5
What an odd year it's been for both of these teams. They had quite the string of lulls and somehow managed to make it to the College World Series. 'Zona fought hard against Coastal, but let the game slip out of their grasp after a big 8th inning. Meanwhile, Louisville's heroic 9th inning effort to nearly stun the Beavers came up just short as their bullpen gave up a walk-off in the bottom of the frame. These two squads have shown resilience this year, but only one can advance.
I'm sick of these smug coaches not naming the starters. This year for the regular season it was the best it's ever been in terms of pitcher announcements. But now for the postseason, there needs to be a rule implemented. I can't actually say for sure who is going, but I have a pretty good idea.
Arizona is likely trotting out their freshman in Smith Bailey, their predominant Sunday (Game 3) starter. The 2027 likely 1st rounder had a strong rookie season for the Wildcats, pitching to a 4.01 ERA and 76 K/30 BB ratio in 83 IP. Outside of a couple blowout outings, Bailey has pretty much given his team a chance to win every time out. Overall consistency from the kid has kept Arizona with a leg up on most Sunday's, which are usually series deciding contests.
Bailey has also kicked it up a notch over the last month, providing three quality starts in his last four outings. During that stretch, he's surrendered just five earned runs over 23.1 IP. When he's on, it's a tough matchup for an offense. Bailey will be charged with trying to keep this Cardinal offense in check. With Louisville's constant pressure-applying approach, keeping the runners off base is priority numero uno for the rook. Additionally, he'll need to keep the ball down against an offense that likes to jump out on mistakes.
Louisville hasn't confirmed their starter yet, but I'm thinking Ethan Eberle is most likely to go. They recently slotted their primary closer, Tucker Biven, into the Game 2 role for the tournament. One of the big reasons why Eberle is in play is because he's a lefty. Zona has historically been a lot worse vs. LHP than vs. RHP this season, primarily their best hitters.
Eberle's 4.34 ERA and 53 K/24 BB ratio in 58 IP season shows some of the ups and downs since his promotion to the starting rotation mid-season. There's been a good amount of ups lately, as he's gone at least five innings with three or fewer earned runs allowed in five of his last six. The recent success of Eberle could potentially be an issue for the Cats power players like Brendan Summerhill and Mason White, both of whom are lefties.
The 11 homers allowed is a definite bugaboo for Eberle when facing a lineup that has a couple of boppers. If he can use that big sweeping cross-fire slider away from the southpaws, it could really change the momentum of the game. Louisville will likely roll with some of their LHP bullpen arms in relief in an effort to not deploy a single righty.
Both teams have a relentless approach, so I wouldn't be surprised to this end on a walk-off or clutch hit in the top of the 9th to break a tie. It's a close call for me, but I like Smith Bailey and his closer, Tony Pluta, better than what Louisville will deploy on the mound. I think the Wildcats offense is able to just find enough at the plate to get the job done.
Pick: Arizona ML -120 (FD)
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